Flamengo vs Santos
Match recap
Flamengo beat Santos 3–1 in their Serie A fixture. Pedro, Jorginho, and Paquetá scored for Flamengo; Díaz replied for Santos. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.29 for Flamengo versus 0.77 for Santos. Flamengo sit 2nd in the Serie A table while Santos are 8th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Flamengo win
Actual
3–1
Outcome probability
Flamengo and Santos face off in a regular season encounter where Flamengo's superior form and firepower make them clear favourites. Expect a match where the home side's attacking midfield trio and prolific striker Pedro lead the charge.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking midfield trio dominates creativity
Carrascal, Samuel Lino, and De Arrascaeta provide high goal and assist output, outmatching Santos' midfield creativity
Pedro's prolific scoring form boosts Flamengo's chances
Pedro leads Flamengo with 16 goals, showing consistent scoring ability and strong recent form
Flamengo's home scoring streak supports predicted 3-0 win
Flamengo has scored in last 5 home games, averaging nearly 2 goals per game at home
Santos rely heavily on Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar for goals
Both players have high goal tallies but limited support from midfielders, making them predictable
No confirmed injuries for either team, full strength expected
Both teams have no confirmed outs, allowing key players to influence the match fully
The context
This fixture is part of the 10th round of the regular season in league 71. Flamengo currently sit top of the table with a strong points-per-game ratio and goal difference, while Santos are positioned mid-table. Both teams come into this match without injury concerns, allowing their key players to feature.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo with 16 goals, showing consistent scoring ability and strong recent form.
Serie A 26/2716 goals in 30 appearances, 0.53 goals/game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Carrascal leads the team with 8 assists, providing key creativity and goal contributions.
Serie A 26/278 assists in 24 appearances, 0.33 assists/game
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Samuel Lino contributes both goals and assists, adding balance to Flamengo's attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 7 assists in 29 appearances
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
Gabriel Barbosa is Santos' main goal threat with 14 goals, especially strong away from home.
Serie A 26/2714 goals in 22 appearances, 0.64 goals/game
Analysis
Flamengo's attacking midfielders Carrascal, Samuel Lino, and De Arrascaeta provide a creative edge that Santos struggle to match. Pedro, Flamengo's top scorer with 16 goals, is in fine form and expected to be a major threat. Santos rely heavily on Gabriel Barbosa and Neymar for goals, but their midfield support is limited, making their attack somewhat predictable. Flamengo's recent home scoring streak, averaging nearly two goals per game, further underlines their dominance. Discipline is expected to be moderate with around four cards likely in the match.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 64 points from 30 games.
- 2.Santos are 8th in the league with 42 points from 30 games.
- 3.Flamengo have a superior goal difference of +33 compared to Santos.
- 4.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 16 goals this season.
- 5.Gabriel Barbosa leads Santos with 14 goals in 22 appearances.
- 6.Flamengo have won 12 of 20 head-to-head matches against Santos.
- 7.Flamengo average 2.13 points per game, Santos 1.40.
- 8.Flamengo have scored in their last 5 home games, averaging nearly 2 goals per game.
Prediction
The prediction strongly favours Flamengo to secure a 3-0 victory, building on a halftime lead of 1-0. The home side's superior goal difference, points tally, and attacking options make this a confident call. Flamengo's ability to control the game and convert chances should see them comfortably outscore Santos.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Flamengo
Away — Santos
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's blend of attacking talent and consistent form should see them comfortably dispatch Santos. Expect Pedro to lead the scoring, supported by creative midfielders, while Santos will struggle to break down a solid Flamengo defence. A 3-0 win for Flamengo looks on the cards.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:57 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Díaz
Assist: Oliva
Gabriel Bontempo
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Pedro
Assist: Carrascal
Lino
Evertton Araújo
Barreal
Yellow Card
Jorginho
Penalty
Zé Ivaldo
Thaciano
Oliva
Carrascal
Pedro
Barreal
de Arrascaeta
Paquetá
Assist: Plata
Gabriel Bontempo
Match Statistics
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 21JorginhoM
- 52Evertton AraújoM
Substitutes
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 13DaniloD
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 19G. PlataF
- 20Lucas PaquetáM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 51Daniel SalesD
- 64WallaceF
Santos
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 2Zé IvaldoD
- 4Lucas VeríssimoD
- 14Luan PeresD
- 16ThacianoM
- 19L. DíazF
- 22Á. BarrealM
- 28C. OlivaM
- 31G. EscobarD
- 48Gustavo Henrique PereiraM
- 49Gabriel BontempoM
- 77Gabriel BrazãoG
Substitutes
- 1DiógenesG
- 5João SchmidtM
- 6Zé RafaelM
- 7Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 8T. RincónM
- 9Gabriel BarbosaF
- 15Willian ArãoM
- 21MoisésF
- 32B. RollheiserF
- 38Rafael GonzagaD
- 98A. FríasD
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorginho | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Pedro | F | 82 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 81 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 65 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 5/7 |
| Samuel Lino | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Giorgian De Arrascaeta(C) | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Danilo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo Alves | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Sales | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace Yan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 25 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 8 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | F | 9 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Santos
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Díaz | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Gustavo Henrique Pereira | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Christian Oliva | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Veríssimo(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thaciano | M | 72 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Luan Peres | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Bontempo | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Álvaro Barreal | M | 82 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Brazão | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Ivaldo | D | 72 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Escobar | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tomás Rincón | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adonis Frías | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Rafael | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Schmidt | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robinho Júnior | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogenes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Falcão | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Gonzaga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moisés | F | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Willian Arão | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gabriel Barbosa | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Benjamín Rollheiser | F | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Flamengo vs Santos?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Santos.
- What score did Fipster predict for Flamengo vs Santos?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Flamengo 3–0 Santos.
- What were the win probabilities for Flamengo vs Santos?
- Fipster's model gave Flamengo a 92% chance of winning, Santos a 4% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 92% confidence — a high-confidence call.