Flamengo vs Gremio
Flamengo's Pedro shines in solid win
A commanding display from Flamengo sees them comfortably dispatch Gremio.
Flamengo secured a 3-1 victory over Gremio in Serie A, with Pedro starring by netting twice, including a goal in stoppage time before half-time. Samuel Lino opened the scoring early on, setting the tone for the home side. Although F. Amuzu pulled one back for Gremio after the break, Flamengo's dominance was clear throughout. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline included a consolation goal for Gremio.
Outcome probability
Flamengo and Gremio face off in a regular season clash where the home side is expected to assert their dominance. Flamengo's strong form and attacking prowess set the stage for a comfortable victory.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking midfield dominance
Flamengo's midfielders like Samuel Lino and J. Carrascal have high goal and assist rates, outpacing Gremio's midfield creativity
Pedro's prolific scoring form
Pedro leads Flamengo with 15 goals and strong recent away scoring, making him the primary scoring threat
Flamengo's strong home scoring streak
Flamengo has scored in last 5 home games and averages 2 goals per home match, supporting predicted 3-0 win
Gremio missing key midfielder Danilo Barbosa
Danilo Barbosa is confirmed out, weakening Gremio's midfield creativity and defensive stability
Flamengo's creative defenders aiding attack
Guillermo Varela provides 5 assists this season, adding offensive width and supply to forwards
The context
Flamengo currently lead the league with 73 points from 33 games, boasting a goal difference of +40. Gremio, struggling near the relegation zone with 34 points from 32 games, face an uphill battle. Historically, Flamengo have the upper hand, winning 13 of their 20 encounters against Gremio.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo with 15 goals and strong recent away scoring, making him the primary scoring threat.
Serie A 26/2715 goals in 31 appearances, 0.48 goals/game
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Samuel Lino is both top assister and second top scorer for Flamengo, with 9 goals and 9 assists, showing high involvement in goals.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 9 assists in 30 appearances, 0.3 goals/game and 0.3 assists/game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Creative midfielder J. Carrascal has 7 goals and 8 assists, playing a key role in linking midfield and attack.
Serie A 26/277 goals and 8 assists in 25 appearances, 0.28 goals/game and 0.32 assists/game
- D
Danilo Barbosa
Gremio
Danilo Barbosa is confirmed out, weakening Gremio's midfield creativity and defensive stability.
Analysis
Flamengo's attacking midfielders, including Samuel Lino and J. Carrascal, have been instrumental this season with high goal and assist tallies, outpacing Gremio's creativity. Pedro, Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals, is in fine form and expected to lead the charge. Gremio's key midfielder Danilo Barbosa is out, weakening their midfield stability. Flamengo's recent home scoring streak and superior goal difference further underline their advantage.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 73 points from 33 games (W22 D7 L4).
- 2.Gremio sit 17th with 34 points from 32 games (W8 D10 L14).
- 3.Flamengo have won 13 of 20 matches against Gremio.
- 4.Flamengo have a goal difference of +40 compared to Gremio's lower tally.
- 5.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 6.Samuel Lino has contributed 9 goals and 9 assists for Flamengo.
- 7.Gremio's Danilo Barbosa is confirmed out, weakening their midfield.
- 8.Flamengo have scored in their last 5 home games, averaging 2 goals per match.
Prediction
The match is expected to see Flamengo take a 1-0 lead by halftime, gradually extending their advantage to a 3-0 victory by full time. The predicted total of three cards suggests a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Flamengo
Away — Gremio
The verdict
With Flamengo's attacking strength and Gremio's struggles, this fixture looks set for a straightforward home win. Expect Flamengo to dominate possession and create numerous chances, sealing a comfortable 3-0 result.
Prediction generated 30 Oct 2026, 02:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lino
Pedro
Assist: Carrascal
Pedro
Pedro Gabriel
Carrascal
Tetê
Marcos Rocha
Ayrton Lucas
Kannemann
Yellow Card
Amuzu
de Arrascaeta
Kannemann
Lino
Braithwaite
Villasanti
Yellow Card
Pedro
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 |
Match Statistics
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 21JorginhoM
Substitutes
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 8SaúlM
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 30J. FreitasF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 52Evertton AraújoM
- 77Johnny GóesD
Gremio
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 4W. KannemannD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 11TetêM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 38Caio PaulistaM
- 54Pedro GabrielD
Substitutes
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 18João PedroD
- 24Thiago BeltrameG
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 48B. G. Joao PedroM
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 77Jovane CabralF
- 82WallaceD
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Guilherme | F | 81 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Samuel Lino | M | 81 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1/5 |
| Léo Pereira | D | 81 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Jorginho | M | 81 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta(C) | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 2/4 |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 81 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulgar | M | 81 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Saúl Ñíguez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Valencia | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo Alves | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Goes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Freitas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 36 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Noriega | M | 81 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Dodi | M | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Grando | G | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathias Villasanti | M | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Caio Paulista | M | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/5 |
| Walter Kannemann(C) | D | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Zortéa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Beltrame | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Krovinović | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jovane Cabral | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Borne | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 36 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| José Enamorado | F | 36 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 36 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Flamengo vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Flamengo vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Flamengo 3–0 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Flamengo vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Flamengo a 95% chance of winning, Gremio a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.