Flamengo vs Fluminense
Match recap
Flamengo beat Fluminense 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Carrascal scored for Flamengo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.65 for Flamengo versus 0.71 for Fluminense. Flamengo sit 2nd in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 5th.
Outcome probability
The upcoming clash between Flamengo and Fluminense promises plenty of action, with Flamengo expected to showcase their attacking prowess. Both teams have their work cut out, but the form and stats suggest a clear favourite.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking midfield trio in strong form
Pedro, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá show high recent scoring and assist form, boosting Flamengo's attack
Flamengo's superior goal-scoring rate
Flamengo averages 2 goals per game at home, well above league average and Fluminense's 1.66
Fluminense missing key attackers and midfielders
Fluminense confirmed out players include top scorer John Kennedy and key midfielder Canobbio, weakening attack
Jorge Carrascal's creative influence
Carrascal leads Flamengo in assists with 7 and has 3 assists in last 5 games, key to creating chances
Fluminense's defensive doubts with Guga out
Guga's absence due to injury weakens Fluminense's defense, increasing Flamengo's scoring chances
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's 30th round, where Flamengo currently sit top of the league with 61 points and a healthy +32 goal difference. Fluminense, meanwhile, trail behind, making this encounter a crucial test of Flamengo's dominance.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo's attack with 15 goals this season, showing strong recent form and a key role in the team's scoring.
Serie A 26/2715 goals in 27 apps, 0.56 goals/game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Carrascal is the creative heartbeat with 7 assists this season and 3 in the last 5 games, crucial for chance creation.
Serie A 26/277 assists in 21 apps, 0.33 assists/game
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Samuel Lino contributes both goals and assists, with 9 goals and 7 assists this season, adding depth to Flamengo's attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 7 assists in 26 apps
Lucas Paquetá
Flamengo
Paquetá's excellent recent scoring form, with 3 goals in the last 5 games, boosts Flamengo's midfield threat at home.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 18 apps, 0.28 goals/game
Analysis
Flamengo's superiority is evident in their league standing and head-to-head record, having won 8 of the last 20 meetings against Fluminense. Their attacking midfield trio, featuring Pedro, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá, are in fine form, combining goal-scoring and creative talents. Fluminense face defensive challenges, notably missing key defender Guga, which could be exploited. The data strongly favours a Flamengo win, with a likely halftime lead of 2-0 and a final scoreline of 4-1.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 61 points from 29 games (W18 D7 L4).
- 2.Flamengo have a +32 goal difference, significantly better than Fluminense.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo have won 8, Fluminense 5, with 7 draws.
- 4.Flamengo average 2 goals per game at home, above the league average.
- 5.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 6.J. Carrascal leads Flamengo with 7 assists, including 3 in the last 5 games.
- 7.Fluminense are missing key defender Guga due to injury.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
Expect Flamengo to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime thanks to their clinical finishing and creative midfield. Fluminense may pull one back, but Flamengo's firepower should secure a comfortable 4-1 victory by full time, with around four cards expected to keep things spicy.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Flamengo
Away — Fluminense
No standout top scorers flagged for Fluminense
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's blend of form, firepower, and favourable head-to-head stats make them the clear pick to dominate this fixture. Fluminense will need a miracle to upset the hosts, but for now, the smart money is on a convincing Flamengo win.
Prediction generated 9 Oct 2026, 02:27 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pulgar
Yellow Card
Acosta
Yellow Card
Saúl
Yellow Card
Canobbio
Yellow Card
Acosta
Soteldo
Pedro
Saúl
Carrascal
Assist: Paquetá
Castillo
Canobbio
Martinelli
Paquetá
Lino
Ignacio
Yellow Card
Guilherme Arana
Yellow Card
Freitas
Yellow Card
Carrascal
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
Match Statistics
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 8SaúlM
- 9PedroF
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 26Alex SandroD
Substitutes
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 13DaniloD
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 19G. PlataF
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 30J. FreitasF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 77Johnny GóesD
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 4IgnacioD
- 8MartinelliM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 19R. CastilloF
- 29J. MillánD
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 32L. AcostaM
Substitutes
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 7HulkF
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 23GugaD
- 34Wesley NataF
- 35HérculesM
- 90K. SernaF
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Carrascal | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 79 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Pulgar | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| G. Varela | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| A. Rossi | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 79 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Saúl | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| G. Plata | F | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 26 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Freitas | F | 26 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro | F | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Valencia | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Góes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martinelli | M | 78 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| J. Millán | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| PH Ganso | M | 30 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 60 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Y. Soteldo | M | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ignacio | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Nonato | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hulk | F | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Savarino | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Serna | F | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| A. Canobbio | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| R. Castillo | F | 69 | 6.0 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Wesley Nata | F | 12 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Freytes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Flamengo vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Flamengo 4–1 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Flamengo vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Flamengo a 95% chance of winning, Fluminense a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.