Flamengo vs Cruzeiro
Match recap
Flamengo beat Cruzeiro 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Pedro and Carrascal scored for Flamengo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.24 for Flamengo versus 0.57 for Cruzeiro. Flamengo sit 2nd in the Serie A table while Cruzeiro are 3rd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Flamengo win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Flamengo and Cruzeiro face off in the fifth round of the league stage, with Flamengo expected to continue their strong form. The home side have been impressive this season, and their attacking depth suggests a comfortable win is on the cards.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking midfield depth
Flamengo's midfield trio including Carrascal, Lino, and Paquetá offers high creativity and goal threat, overwhelming Cruzeiro's defense
Pedro's prolific scoring form
Pedro leads Flamengo with 15 goals this season, significantly above league striker average, boosting home win chances
Flamengo's strong home scoring streak
Flamengo has scored in last 5 home games, averaging 2 goals per game, supporting predicted 4-0 scoreline
Absence of Arrascaeta weakens Flamengo midfield
Key midfielder Arrascaeta is out with wrist injury, reducing midfield creativity but others compensate
Matheus Pereira's creative role for Cruzeiro
Pereira leads Cruzeiro in assists and goals, vital for their attacking threat despite predicted loss
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season league stage, where Flamengo currently lead the standings with a superior goal difference. Cruzeiro, while competitive, have struggled to match Flamengo's consistency and firepower so far this campaign.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo with 15 goals this season, significantly boosting their chances of a big win.
Serie A 26/2715 goals in 28 appearances, 0.54 goals/game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Carrascal is the creative hub with 8 assists, providing key chances for Flamengo’s attackers.
Serie A 26/278 assists in 22 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Lino contributes both goals and assists, making him a vital link in Flamengo’s attacking play.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 7 assists in 27 appearances
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
Pereira is Cruzeiro’s main creative outlet, leading in both goals and assists despite the team’s struggles.
Serie A 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances
Analysis
Flamengo's attacking midfield trio, including J. Carrascal, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá, provides a creative overload that Cruzeiro's defence will find hard to contain. Pedro, Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season, is a constant threat and likely to add to his tally. Despite the absence of key midfielder Arrascaeta due to injury, Flamengo's squad depth compensates well. Cruzeiro's main hope lies with Matheus Pereira, their leading scorer and assister, but the overall quality gap suggests a tough afternoon for them.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 61 points from 29 games.
- 2.Flamengo have a significantly better goal difference (32) than Cruzeiro this season.
- 3.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 4.Flamengo have won 13 of 20 head-to-head meetings against Cruzeiro.
- 5.Flamengo have scored in their last 5 home games, averaging 2 goals per game.
- 6.Cruzeiro's Matheus Pereira leads his team in goals and assists this season.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
Prediction
We anticipate Flamengo to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and extending their dominance to finish 4-0. The match is expected to feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards likely to be shown. Flamengo's home scoring streak and tactical superiority make this a straightforward prediction.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Flamengo
Away — Cruzeiro
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's blend of attacking talent and solid defence should see them comfortably dispatch Cruzeiro. Fans can expect a dominant performance capped by a convincing 4-0 scoreline, reinforcing Flamengo's position at the top of the league stage.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:33 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pedro
Red card cancelled
Léo Pereira
Yellow Card
Fágner
Yellow Card
Villareal
Cássio
Everton
Emerson Royal
Paquetá
Gerson
Fágner
Silva
Pulgar
Yellow Card
Pedro
de Arrascaeta
Fabrício Bruno
Yellow Card
Carrascal
Assist: Lino
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
Match Statistics
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 11EvertonM
- 20Lucas PaquetáM
- 21JorginhoM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 26Alex SandroD
Substitutes
- 2G. VarelaD
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 13DaniloD
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 19G. PlataF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 52Evertton AraújoM
- 64WallaceF
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1CássioG
- 6KaikiD
- 8Matheus HenriqueM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 11GersonM
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 22N. VillarealF
- 23FágnerD
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 88ChristianM
Substitutes
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 5WalaceM
- 31Matheus CunhaG
- 34JonathanD
- 35Murilo RhikmanM
- 36Kauã PratesD
- 43João MarceloD
- 70KenjiF
- 77JapaM
- 91Francisco da CostaF
- 94WandersonF
- 99K. ArroyoF
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 74 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Pedro | F | 89 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Erick Pulgar | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Emerson Royal | D | 74 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Giorgian De Arrascaeta(C) | M | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 4 | — |
| Jorginho | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Everton | M | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Danilo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 16 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Wallace Yan | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 25 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cássio | G | 62 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Gerson | M | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Silva(C) | M | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kaiki | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| Fagner | D | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Christian | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Néiser Villarreal | F | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Villalba | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Walace | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Marcelo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Jesus | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Kenji | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murilo Rhikman | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Prates | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Cunha | G | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wanderson | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Keny Arroyo | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Japa | M | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chico da Costa | F | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Cruzeiro.
- What score did Fipster predict for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Flamengo 4–0 Cruzeiro.
- What were the win probabilities for Flamengo vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's model gave Flamengo a 84% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 8% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 84% confidence — a high-confidence call.