Flamengo vs Corinthians
Flamengo edge Corinthians in tight tussle
Paquetá and Bruno Henrique seal a narrow home win after Inácio's reply.
Flamengo secured a 2-1 victory over Corinthians in Serie A, with Lucas Paquetá opening the scoring just after the break and Bruno Henrique clinching the win late on. Guilherme Inácio's effort for Corinthians kept the visitors in contention until the final moments. Fipster's prediction of a Flamengo win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was a closer affair than the anticipated 3-0.
Outcome probability
Flamengo and Corinthians face off in a Brazilian Serie A clash where the home side's current form and league standing suggest a comfortable win. Flamengo's attacking trio have been in fine fettle, while Corinthians have struggled to find the net recently.
Match factors
Flamengo's potent attacking trio in form
Pedro, Samuel Lino, and Carrascal show strong recent scoring and assisting form, likely to dominate Corinthians' defense.
Flamengo's superior scoring rate
Flamengo averages 2 goals per game at home, well above Corinthians' 1.04 away scoring rate, favoring a high-scoring home win.
Samuel Lino's recent scoring surge
Samuel Lino scored 4 goals in last 5 games, indicating peak form and high impact potential.
Corinthians' limited attacking threat
Corinthians' top scorers have low recent goal output and the team struggles offensively, limiting their scoring chances.
Flamengo's defensive solidity at home
Flamengo concedes only 0.7 goals per home game, likely to contain Corinthians' attack effectively.
The context
This match is part of the 27th round of the regular season in Brazil's Serie A. Flamengo sit top of the league with 54 points from 26 games, while Corinthians are 11th with 32 points from 25 games. Historically, Flamengo have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won 11 of the last 20 encounters.
Key insights

Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro is the top scorer with 14 goals this season and has been in strong recent form, making him a key threat.
Serie A 26/2714 goals in 24 games, 0.58 goals/game

Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Samuel Lino has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, showing excellent recent form and high impact potential.
Serie A 26/278 goals in 24 games, 0.33 goals/game

J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Carrascal is a creative force with 6 assists and 5 goals this season, including 4 assists and 3 goals in the last 5 games.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 6 assists in 18 games

Yuri Alberto
Corinthians
Yuri Alberto is Corinthians' top scorer but has limited recent scoring, reflecting the team's offensive struggles.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 17 games, 0.18 goals/game
Analysis
Flamengo's goal difference of +30 dwarfs Corinthians' modest +1, highlighting a significant gulf in both offensive and defensive quality. Flamengo average 2 goals per home game, compared to Corinthians' 1.04 goals per away game, suggesting the hosts will likely control the scoring. Key players like Pedro, Samuel Lino, and J. Carrascal have been in excellent recent form, combining for numerous goals and assists. Corinthians' attack, led by Yuri Alberto, has been less potent, with limited recent scoring impact. Defensively, Flamengo concede just 0.7 goals per home game, which should stifle Corinthians' efforts.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 54 points from 26 games; Corinthians have 32 points from 25 games.
- 2.Flamengo have won 11 of the last 20 meetings against Corinthians.
- 3.Flamengo's goal difference (+30) far exceeds Corinthians' (+1).
- 4.Flamengo average 2 goals per home game; Corinthians average 1.04 goals per away game.
- 5.Flamengo concede only 0.7 goals per home game, indicating strong defensive form.
Prediction
We expect Flamengo to take an early lead, reflected in a 1-0 halftime score, before extending their advantage to a 3-0 fulltime victory. The match is also predicted to feature around four cards, indicating a moderately physical contest. Flamengo's dominance in the league and superior goal difference make a home win the most probable outcome.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Flamengo
Away — Corinthians
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's superior form, attacking firepower, and defensive solidity make them clear favourites to secure a comfortable 3-0 victory over Corinthians. The visitors will need to improve their offensive output significantly to challenge the hosts on this occasion.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Charles
Yellow Card
Paquetá
Paquetá
Yellow Card
Charles
Angileri
Dieguinho
Milans
Pereira
Ayrton Lucas
Pedro
Guilherme Inácio
Assist: Kaio César
Plata
de Arrascaeta
Paquetá
Breno
Yellow Card
Bruno Henrique
Assist: Freitas
Pulgar
Yellow Card
Garro
Yellow Card
Jorginho
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | +26 | 56 | |
| 2 | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | +30 | 54 | |
| 3 | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | +10 | 46 | |
| 12 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | -12 | 33 | |
| 13 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 0 | 32 | |
| 14 | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | -3 | 32 |
Match Statistics
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 13DaniloD
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 19G. PlataM
Substitutes
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 8SaúlM
- 14A. ValenciaF
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 21JorginhoM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 26Alex SandroD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 30J. FreitasF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
Corinthians
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 4João PedroD
- 14RanieleM
- 20P. MilansD
- 23Matheus PereiraF
- 26F. AngileriD
- 35CharlesM
- 55I. MachadoD
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 61DieguinhoM
- 77J. LingardM
Substitutes
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 37Kaio CésarF
- 46HugoD
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 80Alex SantanaM
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 86 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 16 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| E. Pulgar | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| G. Plata | M | 79 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3/7 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 74 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| J. Freitas | F | 4 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Varela | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Samuel Lino | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Danilo | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 79 | 6.6 | — | — | 4 | — | 4 | 2/3 |
| J. Carrascal | M | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Alex Sandro | D | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Rossi | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro | F | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Jorginho | M | 11 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Valencia | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saúl | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme Inácio | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Hugo Souza | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaio César | F | 23 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| João Pedro | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Machado | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raniele | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| J. Lingard | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| Breno | M | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus Pereira | F | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| P. Milans | D | 67 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 67 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Charles | M | 67 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Garro | M | 17 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | 23 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Angileri | D | 67 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Santana | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauê Camargo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |







