Flamengo vs Bahia
Match recap
Flamengo beat Bahia 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. de Arrascaeta and Paquetá scored for Flamengo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.91 for Flamengo versus 0.56 for Bahia. Flamengo sit 2nd in the Serie A table while Bahia are 7th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Flamengo win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Flamengo and Bahia face off in the 12th round of the regular season, with Flamengo looking to extend their lead at the top of the table. Bahia, sitting fifth, will need to be at their best to challenge the league leaders.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking midfield trio dominates creativity
Carrascal, Lino, and Paquetá combine high goal and assist rates, creating multiple scoring threats
Pedro's prolific scoring form boosts Flamengo's chances
Pedro leads with 16 goals this season, well above league average for attackers
Flamengo's strong home scoring streak supports predicted win
Team has scored in last 5 home games, averaging nearly 2 goals per game at home
Luciano Juba's goal threat from defense challenges Flamengo
Bahia's defender Luciano Juba has 10 goals this season, a rare scoring threat from defense
No confirmed absences for either team ensures full strength squads
Both teams have no confirmed out players, allowing best XI deployment
The context
Flamengo currently lead the league with 64 points from 30 games, comfortably ahead of Bahia who hold 49 points in fifth place. Historically, Flamengo have dominated this fixture, winning 16 of their 20 meetings against Bahia, which adds an extra layer of pressure on the visitors.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Pedro leads the league with 16 goals this season, making him a constant threat in attack and a key factor in Flamengo's predicted win.
Serie A 26/2716 goals in 30 apps, 0.53 goals/game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Carrascal is Flamengo's top assister with 8 assists, providing creativity and linking well with the forwards.
Serie A 26/278 assists in 24 apps, 0.33 assists/game
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Samuel Lino contributes both goals and assists, with 9 goals and 7 assists this season, adding depth to Flamengo's attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 7 assists in 29 apps
Lucas Paquetá
Flamengo
Paquetá's recent scoring form and strong midfield presence bolster Flamengo's control and attacking options.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 21 apps, 0.29 goals/game
Analysis
Flamengo's attacking midfield trio of Carrascal, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá have been instrumental this season, combining for a high number of goals and assists. Pedro, the league's top scorer with 16 goals, continues to be a key threat upfront. Bahia's Luciano Juba offers a rare goal threat from defence with 10 goals this season, but Flamengo's strong home scoring streak and defensive solidity, led by Léo Ortiz, suggest the hosts will control the game.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo lead the league with 64 points from 30 games (W19 D7 L4).
- 2.Bahia are fifth with 49 points from 30 games (W13 D10 L7).
- 3.Flamengo have won 16 of 20 meetings against Bahia.
- 4.Pedro is the league's top scorer with 16 goals this season.
- 5.Flamengo have scored in their last 5 home games, averaging nearly 2 goals per game at home.
- 6.Bahia's defender Luciano Juba has scored 10 goals this season, a notable threat from defence.
- 7.Flamengo's midfield trio Carrascal, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá combine high goal and assist rates.
Prediction
The prediction is a 3-0 win for Flamengo, consistent with their dominant form and historical superiority over Bahia. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, with Flamengo gradually extending their lead in the second half. The match is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Flamengo
Away — Bahia
No standout top scorers flagged for Bahia
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's superior league position, attacking firepower, and historical dominance make them the clear favourites to secure a comfortable 3-0 victory over Bahia. Bahia will need to raise their game significantly to challenge the hosts on this occasion.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
de Arrascaeta
Assist: Pedro
de Arrascaeta
Yellow Card
Léo Pereira
Yellow Card
Willian José
Gilberto
Lino
Éverton Ribeiro
Pulga
de Arrascaeta
Evertton Araújo
Paquetá
Assist: Saúl
Pedro
Plata
Olivera
Match Statistics
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 9PedroF
- 14G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 19G. PlataM
- 20Lucas PaquetáM
- 26Alex SandroD
- 52Evertton AraújoM
Substitutes
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 8SaúlM
- 11EvertonF
- 13DaniloD
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 64WallaceF
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2GilbertoD
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 21S. RamosD
- 22Léo VieiraG
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 3Gabriel XavierD
- 4KanuD
- 7AdemirF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 25IagoD
- 27EveraldoF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 34João PauloG
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgian de Arrascaeta(C) | M | 79 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1/3 |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Gonzalo Plata | M | 85 | 7.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4/5 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leo Pereira | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 79 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Samuel Lino | M | 66 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro | F | 85 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Vitão | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace Yan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo Alves | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Saul Niguez | M | 11 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Everton | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Vieira | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5/6 |
| Everton Ribeiro(C) | M | 74 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Santiago Ramos Mingo | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Acevedo | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| Cristian Olivera | F | 85 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Willian Jose | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kanu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Paulo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Román Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Michel Araújo | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Everaldo | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ademir | F | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Sanabria | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Flamengo vs Bahia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Bahia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Flamengo vs Bahia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Flamengo 3–0 Bahia.
- What were the win probabilities for Flamengo vs Bahia?
- Fipster's model gave Flamengo a 95% chance of winning, Bahia a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.