Flamengo vs Atletico-MG
Flamengo edge Atletico-MG in five-goal thriller
A late penalty from J. Carrascal seals a narrow 3-2 victory for Flamengo.
Flamengo fought back from an early Bernard strike for Atletico-MG to lead 2-1 at half-time thanks to goals from G. Plata and G. de Arrascaeta. Atletico-MG's Renan Lodi levelled after the break, but a dramatic penalty in stoppage time by J. Carrascal clinched the win for Flamengo. Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Flamengo win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was tighter than the anticipated 3-0.
Outcome probability
Flamengo and Atletico-MG face off in the 32nd round of the regular season, with Flamengo looking to extend their strong run of form. Both teams have had their moments this season, but the stats and recent performances suggest a clear favourite.
Match factors
Flamengo's attacking trio in strong form
Pedro, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá show strong recent scoring form, boosting Flamengo's attack
Absence of key playmaker de Arrascaeta weakens Flamengo midfield
De Arrascaeta's confirmed out status reduces creative options for Flamengo
J. Carrascal's assist prowess enhances Flamengo's goal threat
Carrascal leads assists with 8 this season, key in creating scoring chances
Atletico-MG's Tomás Cuello shows promising attacking form
Cuello has 5 goals this season with good recent performances, a threat despite lower team scoring
The context
Flamengo currently sit 2nd in the league with 64 points from 30 games, boasting a +33 goal difference. Atletico-MG are 6th with 50 points from 31 games and a +7 goal difference. Historically, Flamengo have the edge with 10 wins in 20 head-to-head matches against Atletico-MG, who have won 7 times with 3 draws.
Key insights
Pedro
Flamengo
Top scorer in the league with 15 goals, consistently delivering both home and away.
Serie A 26/2715 goals in 29 appearances, 0.52 goals/game
J. Carrascal
Flamengo
Leading assister with 8 assists, key creative force in midfield.
Serie A 26/278 assists in 23 appearances, 0.35 assists/game
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
Strong goal and assist contribution, effective in both home and away matches.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 7 assists in 28 appearances
- T
Tomás Cuello
Atletico-MG
Promising attacking form with 5 goals, a key threat despite team struggles.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 31 appearances
Analysis
Flamengo's attacking trio of Pedro, Samuel Lino, and Lucas Paquetá have been in fine form, contributing significantly to the team's goal tally. Pedro leads with 15 goals this season, while Carrascal's creativity with 8 assists adds another dimension to their attack. Atletico-MG's Tomás Cuello offers some threat with 5 goals, but overall Flamengo's superior goal difference and league position underline their dominance.
Key facts
- 1.Flamengo have won 10 of the last 20 matches against Atletico-MG.
- 2.Flamengo are 2nd in the league with 64 points from 30 games.
- 3.Atletico-MG are 6th with 50 points from 31 games.
- 4.Flamengo's goal difference (+33) is significantly better than Atletico-MG's (+7).
- 5.Pedro is Flamengo's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 6.J. Carrascal leads Flamengo with 8 assists.
- 7.Atletico-MG's Tomás Cuello has scored 5 goals this season.
Prediction
The prediction is a 3-0 home win for Flamengo, with a halftime score of 1-0. The expected four cards suggest a competitive but controlled match. Flamengo's attacking prowess and home advantage should see them comfortably outscore Atletico-MG.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Flamengo
Away — Atletico-MG
No standout top scorers flagged for Atletico-MG
The verdict
In summary, Flamengo's consistent scoring and stronger league standing make them the clear favourites to claim all three points. Atletico-MG will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to break down Flamengo's attack if they are to avoid a heavy defeat.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 23:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bernard
Assist: Preciado
Plata
Assist: Varela
de Arrascaeta
Assist: Lino
Alex Sandro
Renan Lodi
Assist: Victor Hugo
Gomes
Preciado
Maycon
Plata
Pedro
Léo Pereira
Yellow Card
de Arrascaeta
Jorginho
Carrascal
Yellow Card
Victor Hugo
Bernard
Vitor Hugo
Yellow Card
Carrascal
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | +39 | 73 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | +5 | 47 |
Match Statistics
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 5E. PulgarM
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 19G. PlataM
- 21JorginhoM
- 26Alex SandroD
Substitutes
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 11Lucas PaquetáM
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 30J. FreitasF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 61João Victor CunhaD
Atletico-MG
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 2NatanaelD
- 6Renan LodiD
- 8MayconM
- 11BernardM
- 13LyancoD
- 17Igor GomesF
- 21A. FrancoM
- 23A. PreciadoM
- 30Victor HugoF
- 40VitãoD
Substitutes
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 5AlexsanderM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 15K. CastañoM
- 19ReinierM
- 25T. PérezM
- 27A. MindaF
- 31RobertG
- 36K. PasciniD
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 92DuduF
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. de Arrascaeta | M | 75 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1/3 |
| G. Plata | M | 69 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Samuel Lino | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 6 | 0/1 |
| J. Carrascal | M | 21 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| G. Varela | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| E. Pulgar | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| J. Freitas | F | 15 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Jorginho | M | 75 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Léo Pereira | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Pedro | F | 69 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| Alex Sandro | D | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Rossi | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Victor Cunha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. de la Cruz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emerson Royal | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Hugo | F | 91 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Bernard | M | 91 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Renan Lodi | D | 90 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Gabriel Delfim | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Preciado | M | 63 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Igor Gomes | F | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Lyanco | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Minda | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Franco | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Natanael | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| K. Castaño | M | 27 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maycon | M | 63 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Reinier | M | 27 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Scarpa | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Hugo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsander | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| T. Pérez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Pascini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Duarte | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamady Cisse | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Flamengo to win against Atletico-MG.
- What score did Fipster predict for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Flamengo 3–0 Atletico-MG.
- What were the win probabilities for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's model gave Flamengo a 95% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.