Fiorentina vs Napoli
Napoli held to draw by Fiorentina
A tight contest sees both sides share the spoils in Serie A.
Napoli took an early lead through B. Gilmour's strike in the 23rd minute, but Fiorentina responded after the break with Álex Jiménez leveling the score at 1-1. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Napoli win, the visitors were held to a draw, making this result a notable upset against the forecast.
Outcome probability
The new Serie A season kicks off with an intriguing clash between Fiorentina and Napoli. Both teams have been busy in the transfer market, aiming to start the campaign on a high note. Fiorentina have strengthened their squad with the arrivals of Pote on loan, Mateo Pellegrino, and A. Atta, while parting ways with R. Mandragora, M. Kean (loan), and A. Guðmundsson (loan). Napoli, meanwhile, have welcomed Giovane and said goodbye to Juan Jesus and Miguel Gutiérrez. This match promises to set the tone for what could be an exciting season ahead.
Key facts
- 1.Napoli finished 2nd last season with 76 points, Fiorentina 15th with 42 points.
- 2.Napoli's goal difference last season was +22; Fiorentina's was -9.
- 3.Napoli averaged 2.00 points per game last season, nearly double Fiorentina's 1.11.
- 4.Fiorentina signed Pote on loan, Mateo Pellegrino, and A. Atta over the summer.
- 5.Fiorentina lost R. Mandragora, M. Kean (loan), and A. Guðmundsson (loan) in the transfer window.
- 6.Napoli signed Giovane and released Juan Jesus and Miguel Gutiérrez.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 0-2 in favour of Napoli.
- 8.The match is expected to see around four cards issued.
The context
Looking back at last season, Napoli finished comfortably higher in the league standings than Fiorentina, reflecting a stronger overall performance. Napoli's squad depth and quality have been bolstered by their summer signing Giovane, while Fiorentina's new additions aim to close the gap. Both sides will be eager to start the season positively, but the gulf in league positions from last term suggests Napoli hold the upper hand.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fiorentina
Away — Napoli
Analysis
Napoli's superior league position last season, finishing 2nd with 76 points compared to Fiorentina's 15th with 42 points, highlights the challenge facing La Viola. Napoli's goal difference advantage (+22 compared to Fiorentina's -9) indicates a more potent attack and sturdier defence. Additionally, Napoli's points per game of 2.00 nearly doubles Fiorentina's 1.11, underscoring their consistency. These factors, combined with Napoli's summer business, suggest Gli Azzurri are well placed to control the match and secure a comfortable victory.
Prediction
The prediction is for Napoli to win 3-1, with a halftime score of 2-0 in their favour. The match is expected to be competitive initially, but Napoli's quality and tactical discipline should see them pull away in the second half. The game may feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest. Napoli's ability to convert chances and maintain defensive solidity will be key to their success.
The verdict
In summary, Napoli enter the new season as favourites to claim all three points against Fiorentina. While La Viola have made some interesting signings, the overall strength and form of Gli Azzurri make them the likely winners. Fans can expect an entertaining match with Napoli asserting their dominance to start the campaign with a convincing 3-1 victory.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gilmour
Assist: Politano
Mastantuono
Yellow Card
Viery
Álex Jiménez
Assist: Ndour
Højlund
Lang
Ranieri
Yellow Card
Atta
Pellegrino
Politano
Njie
de Gea
Yellow Card
Ranieri
Lobotka
Match Statistics
Fiorentina
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 6L. RanieriD
- 14A. AttaM
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 25A. NjieF
- 27C. NdourM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 33VieryD
- 43David de GeaG
- 44N. FagioliM
Substitutes
- 2DodôD
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 5M. PongračićD
- 17João MárioD
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 21ValdeD
- 23BetoF
- 28PoteM
- 29W. GnontoF
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 72B. MazzeoM
Napoli
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6B. GilmourM
- 11K. De BruyneM
- 13Amir RrahmaniD
- 16Rafa MarínD
- 17M. OliveraD
- 19R. HøjlundF
- 21M. PolitanoM
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 32V. Milinković-SavićG
- 68S. LobotkaM
- 70N. LangM
Substitutes
- 2C. FavasuliD
- 5B. BadiashileD
- 7David NeresF
- 12C. PuglieseG
- 14N. ContiniG
- 20L. LuccaF
- 26A. VergaraM
- 31S. BeukemaD
- 99A. Zambo AnguissaM
Fiorentina
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David De Gea(C) | G | 93 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Jiménez | D | 93 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Cher Ndour | M | 93 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Radu Drăguşin | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nicolò Fagioli | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3/8 |
| Alieu Njie | F | 80 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Luca Ranieri | D | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Atta | M | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Brando Mazzeo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christ Inao Oulaï | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Mário | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodô | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Lezzerini | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Christensen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Brescianini | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Víctor Valdepeñas | D | 48 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Wilfried Gnonto | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beto | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Marin Pongračić | D | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gonçalves | M | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
Napoli
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Gilmour | M | 93 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Mathías Olivera | D | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Stanislav Lobotka | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Vanja Milinković-Savić | G | 93 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafa Marín | D | 93 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matteo Politano | M | 73 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Amir Rrahmani | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giovanni Di Lorenzo(C) | D | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Noa Lang | M | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Kevin De Bruyne | M | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Rasmus Højlund | F | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Antonio Vergara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frank Anguissa | M | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikita Contini | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Beukema | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benoît Badiashile | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudio Pugliese | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Neres | F | 35 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Costantino Favasuli | D | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lorenzo Lucca | F | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Napoli to win against Fiorentina.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fiorentina 1–3 Napoli.
- What were the win probabilities for Fiorentina vs Napoli?
- Fipster's model gave Fiorentina a 2% chance of winning, Napoli a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.