Fiorentina vs Atalanta
Fiorentina and Atalanta share Serie A spoils
A lively 2-2 draw sees both sides trade blows in a spirited contest.
Atalanta struck first through C. De Ketelaere just before half-time, but Fiorentina responded strongly after the break with goals from A. Njie and João Mário to take the lead. N. Zalewski's equaliser for Atalanta ensured the points were shared in a competitive encounter. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of an away win, proving the hosts were not to be underestimated.
Outcome probability
Fiorentina and Atalanta face off in Serie A's ninth round, both eager to improve their league standing. La Viola have struggled this season, while La Dea look to capitalise on their better form and goal difference.
Match factors
Atalanta's attacking edge through Krstović
Nikola Krstović's strong recent scoring form (5 goals last 5 games) gives Atalanta a clear offensive advantage
Fiorentina's reliance on Mastantuono for goals
Franco Mastantuono leads Fiorentina with 3 goals, especially strong away scoring, crucial for their attack
Atalanta missing key midfielder Kessié
Franck Kessié is confirmed out with a calf injury, reducing midfield strength and creativity for Atalanta
Fiorentina's scoring streak despite poor form
Fiorentina has scored in their last 5 matches but concedes heavily, indicating defensive vulnerabilities
Creative midfielders Fagioli and Zalewski key for assists
Both teams rely on these midfielders for chance creation, influencing goal opportunities
The context
This fixture sees Fiorentina sitting 18th with just 4 points from 8 games, while Atalanta hold 11th place with 9 points from 7 matches. Historically, their encounters have been closely contested, with Atalanta holding a slight edge in wins.
Key insights
Nikola Krstović
Atalanta
Krstović's recent scoring streak of 5 goals in 5 games gives Atalanta a clear attacking advantage.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 7 appearances, 0.57 goals/game
Franco Mastantuono
Fiorentina
Mastantuono leads Fiorentina's attack with 3 goals, all scored away, highlighting his importance on the road.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 7 appearances, 0.43 goals/game
Nicolò Fagioli
Fiorentina
Fagioli's creativity and 2 assists in the last 5 games make him a key playmaker for Fiorentina.
Serie A 26/272 assists in last 5 games, 0.4 assists/game
Nicola Zalewski
Atalanta
Zalewski's 2 assists in 5 games underline his role as Atalanta's chief creator in midfield.
Serie A 26/272 assists in 5 appearances, 0.4 assists/game
Analysis
The head-to-head record is finely balanced, with Fiorentina winning 8 and Atalanta 9 of their 20 meetings, averaging 3.4 goals per game. Atalanta's superior goal difference (+9) and points per game (1.29) suggest they have the edge this season. Fiorentina's Franco Mastantuono leads their attack with 3 goals, notably scoring all 3 away, while Atalanta's Nikola Krstović is in fine form with 5 goals in his last 5 games, making him a key threat. Both teams rely on creative midfielders Nicolò Fagioli and Nicola Zalewski for assists, adding to the tactical intrigue.
Key facts
- 1.Fiorentina rank 18th with 4 points from 8 games (W1 D1 L6).
- 2.Atalanta rank 11th with 9 points from 7 games (W3 D0 L4).
- 3.Atalanta have a +9 goal difference; Fiorentina have -10.
- 4.Head-to-head record: Fiorentina 8 wins, Atalanta 9 wins, 3 draws in 20 matches.
- 5.Matches between these teams average 3.4 goals per game.
- 6.Atalanta average 1.29 points per game this season, Fiorentina 0.50.
- 7.Franco Mastantuono is Fiorentina's top scorer with 3 goals, all away.
- 8.Nikola Krstović leads Atalanta with 4 goals, scoring 5 in his last 5 games.
Prediction
Expect a cautious first half ending 0-0, with Atalanta gradually asserting themselves to clinch a 2-1 victory. Krstović's goal-scoring prowess should prove decisive, despite Fiorentina's resilience and Mastantuono's threat. The match is likely to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fiorentina
Away — Atalanta
The verdict
While the prediction leans towards an Atalanta win, the narrow margin and balanced history suggest a closely fought encounter. Fans can anticipate a tactical battle with moments of attacking flair from both sides.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 15:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kristensen
Elmas
Yellow Card
Viery
Yellow Card
De Ketelaere
Assist: Zalewski
Fagioli
Pellegrino
Yellow Card
Njie
Assist: Álex Jiménez
Gaetano
Elmas
João Mário
Assist: Njie
Njie
Zalewski
Assist: De Ketelaere
Gnonto
Yellow Card
ObriÄ
Yellow Card
Zalewski
Mastantuono
Pellegrino
Match Statistics
Fiorentina
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 17João MárioD
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 25A. NjieF
- 27C. NdourM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 33VieryD
- 43David de GeaG
- 44N. FagioliM
Substitutes
- 2DodôD
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 21ValdeD
- 23BetoF
- 28PoteM
- 29W. GnontoF
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 72B. MazzeoF
Atalanta
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 13ÉdersonM
- 17C. De KetelaereM
- 29M. CarnesecchiG
- 31T. KristensenD
- 40R. ObriÄD
- 47L. BernasconiD
- 59N. ZalewskiM
- 70G. GaetanoM
- 77D. ZappacostaD
- 90N. KrstovićF
- 99E. ElmasM
Substitutes
- 7K. SulemanaF
- 8Mario PasalicM
- 10L. SamardžićM
- 11J. RoweF
- 41J. IdeleM
- 42G. ScalviniD
- 51M. SonzogniG
- 53M. PlaiaD
- 57M. SportielloG
Fiorentina
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Njie | F | 69 | 8.8 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3/4 |
| Álex Jiménez | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | 1 | 4 | — | 4 | 2/4 |
| João Mário | D | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Viery | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Inao Oulaï | M | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| David de Gea | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fagioli | M | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Drăgușin | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Brescianini | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 91 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | — | 3 | 2/6 |
| C. Ndour | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| W. Gnonto | F | 21 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 91 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| B. Mazzeo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Christensen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pote | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lezzerini | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodô | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Valde | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atalanta
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Zalewski | M | 84 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. De Ketelaere | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3/5 |
| E. Elmas | M | 58 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Bernasconi | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Zappacosta | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| G. Scalvini | D | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rowe | F | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| R. ObriÄ | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Sulemana | F | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Gaetano | M | 57 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| T. Kristensen | D | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Krstović | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éderson | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Idele | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Plaia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sonzogni | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Samardžić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sportiello | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atalanta to win against Fiorentina.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fiorentina 1–2 Atalanta.
- What were the win probabilities for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
- Fipster's model gave Fiorentina a 30% chance of winning, Atalanta a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 40% confidence — a low-confidence call.