FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg
Match recap
VfL Wolfsburg beat FC St. Pauli 3–1 in their Bundesliga fixture. Ceesay scored for FC St. Pauli; Koulierakis, Vasilj, and Pejčinović replied for VfL Wolfsburg. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.48 for FC St. Pauli versus 3.50 for VfL Wolfsburg. FC St. Pauli sit 18th in the Bundesliga table while VfL Wolfsburg are 16th.
Analysis
As the Bundesliga season nears its climax, FC St. Pauli host VfL Wolfsburg in what promises to be a tightly contested affair. Both sides are scrapping near the bottom of the table, making every point crucial in their fight for survival.
Historically, these two teams have been well matched, with five of their last six meetings ending in draws. Both clubs sit precariously close in the standings, each with 26 points, underscoring their similar levels of performance this season.
Wolfsburg's attacking threat largely hinges on Dženan Pejčinović, their top scorer with 10 goals, while Christian Eriksen's creativity and set-piece prowess add a vital edge. St. Pauli will rely on the goal-scoring form of Danel Sinani and Martijn Kaars to breach Wolfsburg's defence. Defensively, Hauke Wahl and Eric Smith are key to St. Pauli's efforts to keep the visitors at bay. The statistical trends and player form suggest a low-scoring draw is the most likely outcome.
Prediction
We predict a 1-1 draw, with a goalless first half giving way to goals from both sides in the second. The match is expected to be competitive and disciplined, with around four cards shown, reflecting the high stakes and intensity of the encounter.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Wolfsburg's attacking edge through Pejčinović
Pejčinović's goal-scoring form and involvement gives Wolfsburg a key offensive threat against St. Pauli's leaky defense.
Eriksen's creative influence
Eriksen's above-average assists and set-piece role provide Wolfsburg with a statistical advantage in chance creation.
St. Pauli's Sinani and Kaars in good scoring form
Both forwards have recent goals, offering St. Pauli a chance to break through Wolfsburg's defense despite overall team struggles.
Defensive solidity from Wahl and Smith
Wahl and Smith's defensive contributions are crucial to St. Pauli's efforts to contain Wolfsburg's attack.
No significant injuries reported
Both teams have full squads available, so no injury disruptions expected to affect key player roles.
Key Takeaways
In a season where every point counts, this draw will feel like a fair result for both teams. Expect a tactical battle with moments of individual brilliance, but ultimately a shared spoils scenario at Millerntor-Stadion.
- Five of the last six FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg matches ended in draws.
- Average goals in their head-to-head matches is 1.8, indicating low scoring games.
- Both teams are close in the league table, ranked 16th and 18th with 26 points each.
- Dženan Pejčinović is Wolfsburg's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- Christian Eriksen leads Wolfsburg with 7 assists and 5 goals, a key creative force.
- Danel Sinani has scored 6 goals for St. Pauli, showing consistent form.
- The predicted total cards for the match is four, suggesting a fairly disciplined game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FC St. Pauli
Away — VfL Wolfsburg
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Souza
Yellow Card
Daghim
Yellow Card
Koulierakis
Assist: Eriksen
Hountondji
Ceesay
Assist: Metcalfe
Vasilj (OG)
Goal confirmed
Svanberg
Penalty confirmed
Dźwigała
Pejčinović
Ceesay
Yellow Card
Daghim
Metcalfe
Irvine
Shiogai
Yellow Card
Pejčinović
Eriksen
Fujita
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 | 89 |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | -23 | 32 |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -24 | 29 |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | -31 | 26 |
Match Statistics
FC St. Pauli
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 5Hauke Finn WahlD
- 7Jackson Alexander IrvineM
- 11Arkadiusz PyrkaM
- 15Tomoya AndoD
- 16Joel Chima FujitaM
- 19Martijn KaarsF
- 22Nikola VasiljG
- 23Louis OppieM
- 24Connor Isaac MetcalfeF
- 25Adam DźwigałaD
- 27Andréas HountondjiF
Substitutes
- 1Ben Alexander VollG
- 3Karol MetsD
- 9Abdoulie CeesayF
- 10Danel SinaniF
- 14Finley StevensD
- 18Taichi HaraF
- 20Mathias Knutsen RasmussenM
- 21Lars RitzkaD
- 26Ricky-Jade JonesF
VfL Wolfsburg
3-1-4-2Starting XI
- 1Kamil Mieczysław GrabaraG
- 3Denis VavroD
- 4Konstantinos KoulierakisD
- 5Vinicius SouzaM
- 6Jeanuël BelocianD
- 11Adam DaghimF
- 17Dženan PejčinovićF
- 21Joakim Mæhle PedersenM
- 24Christian Dannemann EriksenM
- 26Saël Kumbedi NsekeM
- 32Mattias Olof SvanbergM
Substitutes
- 7Kento ShiogaiF
- 9Mohammed El Amine AmouraF
- 10Lovro MajerM
- 12Pavao PervanG
- 15Moritz JenzD
- 19Jesper Grænge LindstrømM
- 25Aaron ZehnterD
- 31Yannick GerhardtM
- 40Kevin Alexander ParedesM
FC St. Pauli
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Vasilj | G | 90 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Connor Metcalfe | F | 89 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Martijn Kaars | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Tomoya Ando | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Joel Chima Fujita | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Jackson Irvine(C) | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Adam Dźwigała | D | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Louis Oppie | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Andreas Hountondji | F | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Hauke Wahl | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mathias Rasmussen | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danel Sinani | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Voll | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lars Ritzka | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Karol Mets | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin Stevens | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Taichi Hara | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdoulie Ceesay | F | 45 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones | F | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
VfL Wolfsburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Koulierakis | D | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jeanuël Belocian | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Daghim | F | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Denis Vavro | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kamil Grabara | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mattias Svanberg | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Joakim Mæhle | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Christian Eriksen(C) | M | 89 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1/1 |
| Dženan Pejčinović | F | 89 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 2 | — |
| Saël Kumbedi | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Vinícius Souza | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lovro Majer | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moritz Jenz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aaron Zehnter | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesper Lindstrøm | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pavao Pervan | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Paredes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamed Amoura | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Gerhardt | M | 23 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Kento Shiogai | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |