FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05
Mainz sneak past Schalke with Tietz strike
A solitary goal from P. Tietz secures a narrow Mainz victory at Schalke.
FSV Mainz 05 edged out FC Schalke 04 by a single goal, courtesy of P. Tietz's 24th-minute strike. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring a Schalke win, the visitors defied expectations to claim all three points in this Bundesliga encounter.
Outcome probability
This Bundesliga regular season match pits FC Schalke 04 against FSV Mainz 05 in what promises to be a closely fought encounter. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality early in the campaign, setting the stage for a competitive fixture.
Match factors
Mainz's attacking duo in strong form
Tietz and Becker combine for 6 goals and 3 assists this season, posing a dual threat
Schalke's defensive tackling strength
Kuruçay's 18 tackles in 4 games far exceed league average, key to limiting Mainz's attack
Mainz's consistent scoring streak
Mainz have scored in 4 consecutive matches, showing strong offensive momentum
Becker's doubtful status may weaken Schalke defense
Becker's ankle injury status caps his scoring and assisting probabilities, impacting defensive stability
The context
Schalke currently sit 13th in the league with 5 points from 4 games, while Mainz are a bit higher in 8th place with 7 points from 5 matches. The league table suggests a fairly even contest, with Mainz holding a slight edge in points but Schalke eager to make a statement.
Key insights
Phillip Tietz
FSV Mainz 05
Tietz is a clinical finisher with 4 goals in 4 games, making him Mainz's top scorer and a constant threat away from home.
Bundesliga 26/274 goals in 4 appearances, 90 mins avg
Sheraldo Becker
FSV Mainz 05
Becker combines goal scoring and creativity with 2 goals and 3 assists in 4 games, key to Mainz's attacking threat.
Bundesliga 26/272 goals and 3 assists in 4 appearances, 71.5 mins avg
- H
Hasan Kuruçay
FC Schalke 04
Kuruçay's defensive work is exceptional with 18 tackles in 4 games, crucial for Schalke's defensive stability.
Bundesliga 26/2718 tackles in 4 games, well above league average
- T
Timo Becker
FC Schalke 04
Becker's doubtful ankle injury could weaken Schalke's defence, potentially impacting their ability to contain Mainz's attackers.
Bundesliga 26/27Doubtful due to ankle injury, strong passer with 71% accuracy
Analysis
Mainz boast a strong attacking duo in Phillip Tietz and Sheraldo Becker, who have combined for 6 goals and 3 assists this season. Tietz, in particular, has been clinical with 4 goals in 4 appearances, including a strong away record. Schalke, on the other hand, rely on defensive solidity, with Hasan Kuruçay leading the charge with 18 tackles in 4 games, well above the league average. However, Schalke face a potential defensive concern as Timo Becker is doubtful with an ankle injury, which could impact their backline's stability. Mainz have scored in four consecutive matches, showing consistent offensive momentum, but Schalke's defensive resilience could be the key to edging this match.
Key facts
- 1.FC Schalke 04 are 13th in the league with 5 points from 4 games (W1 D2 L1).
- 2.FSV Mainz 05 are 8th with 7 points from 5 games (W2 D1 L2).
- 3.Phillip Tietz has scored 4 goals in 4 appearances for Mainz.
- 4.Sheraldo Becker has contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 4 games for Mainz.
- 5.Hasan Kuruçay leads Schalke with 18 tackles in 4 games, well above league average.
- 6.Timo Becker is doubtful for Schalke due to an ankle injury.
- 7.Mainz have scored in 4 consecutive matches this season.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Schalke with a 2-1 scoreline. While the probabilities suggest a close contest, Schalke's defensive strengths combined with their home advantage should see them narrowly overcome Mainz's attacking threats. The halftime score remains uncertain, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FC Schalke 04
Away — FSV Mainz 05
The verdict
Expect a tight game with Schalke just about doing enough to claim the three points. Mainz will provide stern resistance, but Schalke's defensive grit and timely goals should secure a 2-1 victory in this Bundesliga regular season clash.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:06 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tietz
Assist: Caci
Amiri
Yellow Card
Sano
Yellow Card
Gantenbein
Džeko
Aouchiche
Katić
Lee Jae-Sung
Becker
Gosens
Amiri
Caci
Tietz
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
Match Statistics
FC Schalke 04
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1L. KariusG
- 4H. KuruçayD
- 5T. BeckerD
- 8R. GosensM
- 10E. DžekoF
- 13S. TanakaM
- 17A. GantenbeinM
- 19K. KaramanM
- 23S. El-FaouziM
- 24A. AouchicheM
- 25N. KatićD
Substitutes
- 6R. SchallenbergM
- 7Hwang Hee-ChanF
- 20J. AdamuF
- 22K. MüllerG
- 29J. Dina EbimbeM
- 33Vitalie BeckerD
- 38L. VozarM
- 39M. WöberD
- 43M. AyhanD
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 2P. MweneM
- 4S. PoschD
- 6K. SanoM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 9P. TietzF
- 10N. AmiriM
- 19A. CaciM
- 21D. da CostaD
- 23S. BeckerF
- 48K. PotulskiD
Substitutes
- 3F. GruberD
- 5E. MartelM
- 8P. NebelM
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 30S. WidmerD
- 40M. KinzigG
- 47R. NakuzolaD
FC Schalke 04
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Karius | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Kuruçay | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Wöber | D | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Adamu | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Tanaka | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Gantenbein | M | 60 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| N. Katić | D | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Dina Ebimbe | M | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Vitalie Becker | D | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hwang Hee-Chan | F | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| E. Džeko | F | 60 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Gosens | M | 79 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Karaman | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| T. Becker | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Aouchiche | M | 71 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| S. El-Faouzi | M | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| M. Ayhan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Vozar | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Müller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Schallenberg | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Tietz | F | 89 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| K. Potulski | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Posch | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Caci | M | 89 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Lee Jae-Sung | M | 76 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. da Costa | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Widmer | D | 1 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Schwolow | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Martel | M | 4 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Nebel | M | 14 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Maloney | M | 1 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Sano | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| R. Königsdörffer | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 86 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| S. Becker | F | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2/4 |
| P. Mwene | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Gruber | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Hollerbach | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Nakuzola | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kinzig | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FC Schalke 04 to win against FSV Mainz 05.
- What score did Fipster predict for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster predicted a final score of FC Schalke 04 2–1 FSV Mainz 05.
- What were the win probabilities for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster's model gave FC Schalke 04 a 35% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.