FC Dallas vs St. Louis City
Match recap
FC Dallas and St. Louis City drew 1–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Deedson scored for FC Dallas; Baumgartl replied for St. Louis City. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.44 for FC Dallas versus 1.28 for St. Louis City. FC Dallas sit 3rd in the Major League Soccer table while St. Louis City are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 St. Louis City win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
The upcoming MLS regular season fixture between FC Dallas and St. Louis City promises a tight contest. Both sides have shown strong form this season, sitting near the top of the league standings and boasting potent attacking options.
Match factors
FC Dallas' Petar Musa leads attack with prolific scoring
Musa's 19 goals this season and strong recent form give Dallas a key scoring threat.
St. Louis City's Rafael Navarro in hot scoring streak
Navarro's 7 goals in 6 recent games make him a dangerous forward for the away side.
Joaquín Valiente's playmaking boosts FC Dallas' offense
Valiente's 9 assists and high key passes per game enhance Dallas' goal chances.
St. Louis City on a 5-game scoring streak
The away team has scored in all last 5 matches, showing strong attacking momentum.
St. Louis City missing key midfielder Célio Pompeu
Pompeu is confirmed out, potentially weakening midfield creativity and depth.
The context
FC Dallas currently hold third place in the league with 47 points from 28 games, while St. Louis City sit just above them in second with the same points but a game in hand. Their recent head-to-head meetings have been competitive, with FC Dallas winning three, St. Louis City two, and three draws in eight encounters.
Key insights
Petar Musa
FC Dallas
Musa's 19 goals this season and strong recent form give Dallas a key scoring threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2719 goals in 24 appearances, 0.79 goals/game
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro's 7 goals in 6 recent games make him a dangerous forward for the away side.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 6 appearances, 1.17 goals/game
Joaquín Valiente
FC Dallas
Valiente's 9 assists and high key passes per game enhance Dallas' goal chances.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 26 appearances, 0.35 assists/game
Analysis
FC Dallas rely heavily on Petar Musa, their top scorer with 19 goals this season, whose consistent form has been a key factor in their attack. Joaquín Valiente's creativity, leading the team with 9 assists, further boosts their offensive threat. On the other side, St. Louis City's Rafael Navarro is in exceptional form, netting 7 goals in his last 6 appearances, making him a significant danger. The away side has scored in each of their last five matches, showing strong momentum. However, they will miss key midfielder Célio Pompeu, which could impact their midfield creativity.
Key facts
- 1.FC Dallas are 3rd in the league with 47 points from 28 games.
- 2.St. Louis City are 2nd with 47 points from 27 games.
- 3.In 8 head-to-head matches, FC Dallas have 3 wins, St. Louis City 2, and 3 draws.
- 4.Petar Musa leads FC Dallas with 19 goals in 24 appearances.
- 5.Rafael Navarro has scored 7 goals in his last 6 games for St. Louis City.
- 6.Joaquín Valiente has provided 9 assists for FC Dallas this season.
- 7.St. Louis City have scored in their last 5 matches.
- 8.St. Louis City will miss midfielder Célio Pompeu due to injury.
Prediction
Despite the home side's strengths, the prediction leans towards a narrow away win for St. Louis City, with a 2-1 scoreline. The away team's recent scoring streak and attacking firepower, led by Navarro and Simon Becher, are expected to tip the balance in their favour in this closely contested match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FC Dallas
Away — St. Louis City
The verdict
This fixture is set to be a thrilling encounter with both teams eager to claim vital points. While FC Dallas have the home advantage and key players in form, St. Louis City's attacking momentum and resilience could see them edge out a win. Expect a competitive game with goals from both sides.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:16 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Córdova
Yellow Card
Ramiro
Urhoghide
Yellow Card
Cappis
Yellow Card
Deedson
Assist: Musa
Collodi
Yellow Card
Baumgartl
Assist: Edelman
Farrington
Deedson
Delgado
Córdova
Orozco
Cappis
Rafael Santos
Edelman
Becher
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
Match Statistics
FC Dallas
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 7L. DeedsonM
- 8P. DelgadoF
- 9P. MusaF
- 12C. CappisM
- 17RamiroM
- 18S. MooreM
- 23L. FarringtonF
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 30Michael CollodiG
- 32N. NorrisD
Substitutes
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 10S. MorenoF
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 16Nicholas SimmondsF
- 21J. ValienteM
- 28Samuel SarverF
- 40J. SiroisG
- 55KaickM
St. Louis City
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 16S. CórdovaF
- 17M. HartelF
- 20Rafael SantosM
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 14T. TotlandD
- 28M. PerezM
- 36C. TeuchertF
- 39B. LundtG
- 59M. JoynerM
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 80Brendan McSorleyF
FC Dallas
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louicius Don Deedson | M | 67 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Petar Musa | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Ramiro(C) | M | 35 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael Collodi | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nolan Norris | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Logan Farrington | F | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Osaze Urhoghide | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sebastien Ibeagha | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shaq Moore | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Christian Cappis | M | 83 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Patrickson Delgado | F | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lalas Abubakar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Sarver | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicholas Simmonds | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Sirois | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Moreno | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Joaquín Valiente | M | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ran Binyamin | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Herman Johansson | M | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaick | M | 55 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 89 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Christopher Durkin | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Rafael Santos | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Dante Polvara | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcel Hartel | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Roman Burki(C) | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Sergio Córdova | F | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sang-bin Jeong | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Mbacke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mykhi Joyner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brendan McSorley | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Lundt | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Perez | M | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cedric Teuchert | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Tomas Totland | D | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win FC Dallas vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against FC Dallas.
- What score did Fipster predict for FC Dallas vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of FC Dallas 1–2 St. Louis City.
- What were the win probabilities for FC Dallas vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's model gave FC Dallas a 32% chance of winning, St. Louis City a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.