FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
FC Dallas seals dominant 3-0 win
P. Musa's brace and a late goal from S. Moreno secure a commanding victory for Dallas.
FC Dallas turned on the style late in the game to claim a 3-0 win over San Jose Earthquakes in Major League Soccer. P. Musa broke the deadlock with a normal goal in the 83rd minute before adding a penalty five minutes later, and S. Moreno wrapped up the scoring deep into stoppage time. Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Dallas win was spot on, though the margin of victory was more emphatic than expected.
Outcome probability
As the MLS regular season nears its climax, FC Dallas and San Jose Earthquakes face off in what promises to be a tight encounter. Both sides are closely matched in the standings, making this a crucial fixture for playoff positioning.
Match factors
Petar Musa's scoring prowess vs San Jose's defense
Musa's 19 goals this season and strong recent away form give FC Dallas a clear attacking edge.
Joaquín Valiente's creative influence
Valiente leads FC Dallas with 8 assists, well above league average for midfielders, boosting scoring chances.
San Jose's Preston Judd in good scoring form
Judd has 4 goals in last 5 games, maintaining strong scoring momentum despite away challenges.
FC Dallas missing key attacker Logan Farrington
Farrington is confirmed out with a lower-body injury, reducing attacking options and assist potential.
The context
FC Dallas currently sit 3rd in the league with 50 points, just ahead of San Jose Earthquakes who are 4th with 47 points. Their head-to-head history is fairly balanced, with 4 wins for Dallas, 6 for San Jose, and 10 draws in 20 meetings. Matches between these two have averaged three goals, indicating a moderate scoring trend.
Key insights
Petar Musa
FC Dallas
Musa's 19 goals this season and strong recent away form give FC Dallas a clear attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/2719 goals in 24 appearances, 0.79 goals/game
Joaquín Valiente
FC Dallas
Valiente leads FC Dallas with 8 assists, well above league average for midfielders, boosting scoring chances.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 27 appearances, 0.30 assists/game
Preston Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Judd has 4 goals in last 5 games, maintaining strong scoring momentum despite away challenges.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 24 appearances, 0.63 goals/game
- L
Logan Farrington
FC Dallas
Farrington is out with a lower-body injury, reducing attacking options and assist potential for Dallas.
Analysis
FC Dallas boast the league's top scorer, Petar Musa, who has netted 19 goals this season and is in strong recent form, particularly away from home. His partnership with Joaquín Valiente, the team's leading assister with 8 assists, provides Dallas with a potent attacking threat. San Jose's Preston Judd has also been impressive, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games, but Dallas' slight edge in the league table and home advantage could prove decisive. The absence of Dallas' Logan Farrington due to injury slightly dampens their attacking options, but their overall form and defensive solidity suggest they can keep San Jose at bay.
Key facts
- 1.FC Dallas are 3rd in the league with 50 points from 29 games (14 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses).
- 2.San Jose Earthquakes are 4th with 47 points from 29 games (13 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, FC Dallas have won 4, San Jose 6, with 10 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 goals, indicating moderate scoring.
- 5.Petar Musa leads FC Dallas with 19 goals this season, including strong recent away form.
- 6.Joaquín Valiente tops FC Dallas assists with 8 this season, providing key creativity.
- 7.Preston Judd is San Jose's leading scorer with 15 goals and good recent form.
- 8.FC Dallas will miss Logan Farrington due to a lower-body injury.
Prediction
We expect FC Dallas to take an early lead and hold onto it, with a 1-0 scoreline at both halftime and fulltime. The match is likely to be competitive, with around four cards issued as tempers flare in this important fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FC Dallas
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
In a season where every point counts, FC Dallas look poised to claim a narrow victory over San Jose Earthquakes. Their attacking firepower combined with a disciplined defensive effort should see them edge this one, keeping their playoff hopes firmly alive.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 04:36 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Roberts
Yellow Card
Gunn
Yellow Card
Valiente
Ricketts
Werner
Vieira
Jasinski
Job
Johansson
Musa
Assist: Kamungo
Musa
Penalty
Musa
Moreno
Assist: Ramiro
Romney
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 2 |  FC Dallas | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | +9 | 55 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 51 |
Match Statistics
FC Dallas
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 7D. JobM
- 9P. MusaF
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 17RamiroM
- 18S. MooreD
- 21J. ValienteM
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 42DanielG
- 55KaickM
- 77B. KamungoM
Substitutes
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 10S. MorenoF
- 11A. JulioF
- 12C. CappisM
- 27Caleb SwannM
- 32N. NorrisD
- 40J. SiroisG
San Jose Earthquakes
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1A. GunnG
- 2J. RickettsM
- 4D. RomneyD
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaF
- 11T. WernerM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 17Jack JasinskiM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 23E. LöwenM
- 34Beau LerouxM
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 25M. FlorianiD
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 87Vítor CostaD
FC Dallas
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Musa | F | 89 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | — |
| O. Urhoghide | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Kamungo | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | 3/4 |
| S. Ibeagha | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ramiro | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kaick | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| S. Moore | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Daniel | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Cappis | M | 1 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Binyamin | M | 12 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Delgado | M | 12 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Valiente | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| S. Moreno | F | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| H. Johansson | M | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| D. Job | M | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| A. Julio | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Sirois | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Norris | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Abubakar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caleb Swann | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Löwen | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| D. Romney | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Vieira | M | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| D. Munie | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Roberts | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Marie | D | 13 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vítor Costa | D | 13 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Bouda | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Beau Leroux | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| J. Ricketts | M | 77 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jack Jasinski | M | 77 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Tsakiris | M | 13 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Skahan | M | 13 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Werner | M | 77 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Gunn | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fernandez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Floriani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jovanović | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Edwards | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Harkes | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FC Dallas to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of FC Dallas 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes.
- What were the win probabilities for FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's model gave FC Dallas a 85% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.