FC Dallas vs San Diego
Match recap
FC Dallas and San Diego drew 3–3 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Musa, Musa, and Musa scored for FC Dallas; Valakari, Ingvartsen, and Valakari replied for San Diego. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.71 for FC Dallas versus 2.04 for San Diego. FC Dallas sit 3rd in the Major League Soccer table while San Diego are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 FC Dallas win
Actual
3–3
Outcome probability
FC Dallas and San Diego face off in the fourth round of the regular season, with Dallas aiming to extend their superior league standing and goal difference against a mid-table San Diego side.
Match factors
San Diego's Dreyer and Ingvartsen key to offense
Dreyer has 11 assists and Ingvartsen 12 goals, both in good recent form to challenge Dallas defense
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, allowing strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
FC Dallas currently sit third in the league with 47 points from 28 games, boasting a goal difference 10 goals better than San Diego, who are twelfth with 32 points. Dallas's points-per-game rate of 1.68 notably outpaces San Diego's 1.14, highlighting the gulf in consistency between the sides.
Key insights
Petar Musa
FC Dallas
League top scorer with 18 goals, including a hat-trick in the last meeting against San Diego, making him a key threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2718 goals in 23 appearances, 0.78 goals/game
Joaquín Valiente
FC Dallas
Leading assist provider with 9 assists, crucial in creating scoring opportunities and maintaining attacking momentum.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 25 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen
San Diego
Top scorer for San Diego with 12 goals, consistent starter and main offensive outlet.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 23 appearances, 0.52 goals/game
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Creative midfielder with 11 assists, key to San Diego's attacking play and set-piece threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 assists in 26 appearances, 0.42 assists/game
Analysis
Dallas's attacking threat is spearheaded by Petar Musa, the league's top scorer with 18 goals, who has a strong recent record including a hat-trick against San Diego in their last meeting. Midfielder Joaquín Valiente's nine assists underline Dallas's creative edge. San Diego will rely on Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen, their top scorer with 12 goals, and Anders Laustrup Dreyer, who leads their assists with 11. Both teams have full squads available, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Key facts
- 1.FC Dallas are third in the league with 47 points from 28 games (W13 D8 L7).
- 2.San Diego are twelfth with 32 points from 28 games (W8 D8 L12).
- 3.FC Dallas have a goal difference 10 goals better than San Diego this season.
- 4.FC Dallas average 1.68 points per game compared to San Diego's 1.14.
- 5.Petar Musa is the league's top scorer with 18 goals this season.
- 6.Joaquín Valiente leads FC Dallas with 9 assists.
- 7.Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen is San Diego's top scorer with 12 goals.
- 8.Anders Laustrup Dreyer has provided 11 assists for San Diego.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for FC Dallas with a 3-1 scoreline. The forecast suggests Dallas will establish an early lead, consistent with a 2-0 halftime advantage, before maintaining control to secure victory. The expected total of four cards indicates a competitive but disciplined match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FC Dallas
Away — San Diego
The verdict
With their superior form, goal difference, and key players in fine fettle, FC Dallas are poised to take all three points. San Diego will provide a stern test, but the home side's quality and momentum should see them through.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:46 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
Valakari
Penalty
Cappis
Yellow Card
Johansson
Yellow Card
Ingvartsen
Penalty
Soma
Yellow Card
Musa
Pilcher
Soma
Valakari
Assist: Mighten
Musa
Penalty
Vazquez
Mighten
Cappis
Søe
Valiente
Ramiro
Ibeagha
Bombino
Yellow Card
Farrington
Yellow Card
Musa
Assist: Kamungo
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
Match Statistics
FC Dallas
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 9P. MusaF
- 12C. CappisM
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 17RamiroM
- 18S. MooreD
- 21J. ValienteF
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 30Michael CollodiG
- 32N. NorrisD
- 55KaickF
- 77B. KamungoM
Substitutes
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 7L. DeedsonF
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 22Alvaro AugustoD
- 23L. FarringtonF
- 27C. SwannM
- 28Samuel SarverF
- 40J. SiroisG
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 15P. SomaM
- 17O. SøeD
- 19D. VazquezF
- 20A. GodoyM
- 25I. PilcherD
- 26M. DuahD
- 27L. BombinoD
- 77A. MightenF
Substitutes
- 6J. TverskovM
- 9L. MorganF
- 10A. DreyerM
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 21B. DukeM
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 97C. McVeyD
FC Dallas
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petar Musa | F | 90 | 9.2 | 3 | — | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Kaick | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Bernard Kamungo | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| Nolan Norris | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Joaquín Valiente | F | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Michael Collodi | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Herman Johansson | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Christian Cappis | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Shaq Moore | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramiro(C) | M | 77 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Sebastien Ibeagha | D | 85 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alvaro Augusto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caleb Swann | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lalas Abubakar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Sirois | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Sarver | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Louicius Don Deedson | F | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Patrickson Delgado | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ran Binyamin | M | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Logan Farrington | F | 22 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onni Valakari | M | 90 | 8.5 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| Luca Bombino | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | F | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Aníbal Godoy(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Pablo Sisniega | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Vazquez | F | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alex Mighten | F | 58 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Ian Pilcher | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Soma | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manu Duah | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Osvald Soe | D | 71 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bryan Zamblé | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryce Duke | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lewis Morgan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duran Ferree | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amahl Pellegrino | F | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Anders Dreyer | M | 32 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Jeppe Tverskov | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Christopher McVey | D | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Verhoeven | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win FC Dallas vs San Diego?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FC Dallas to win against San Diego.
- What score did Fipster predict for FC Dallas vs San Diego?
- Fipster predicted a final score of FC Dallas 3–1 San Diego.
- What were the win probabilities for FC Dallas vs San Diego?
- Fipster's model gave FC Dallas a 85% chance of winning, San Diego a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.