FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
Cincinnati clinches narrow win with last-gasp strike
Evander's stoppage-time goal seals a 2-1 victory over New York City FC.
FC Cincinnati edged out New York City FC 2-1 in a closely contested Major League Soccer match. K. Mboma Dem opened the scoring early for Cincinnati, but Luighi Hanri quickly levelled for New York City FC. The decisive moment came in stoppage time when Evander netted the winner for Cincinnati. Fipster's prediction of a home win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved a bit optimistic.
Outcome probability
FC Cincinnati and New York City FC face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown attacking intent this season, but the home side looks poised to make the most of their opportunities.
Match factors
FC Cincinnati's attacking duo in strong form
Denkey and Evander combine high goal and assist rates, boosting home attack potential.
Home scoring advantage for FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati averages 3.11 goals per home game, well above league average, supporting predicted 3 goals.
Evander's recent assist surge
Evander has 7 assists in last 5 games, indicating peak creative form.
NYCFC's Fernández Mercau as key goal threat
Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC with 13 goals, posing a significant threat despite predicted loss.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans.
The context
This match is part of the 2026 MLS regular season, round 20. Historically, these teams have met 20 times, with New York City FC holding a slight edge in wins. The head-to-head encounters have been fairly high scoring, averaging 3.6 goals per game, suggesting an open and attacking contest.
Key insights
Evander
FC Cincinnati
Evander is in peak creative form with 7 assists in the last 5 games, making him a key playmaker for the home side.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals and 8 assists in 16 appearances, including 7 assists in last 5 games
K. Denkey
FC Cincinnati
Denkey’s clinical finishing at home, scoring 5 goals in last 10 home games, boosts FC Cincinnati’s attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 16 appearances, 0.69 goals/game
N. Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Fernández Mercau remains a significant goal threat for NYCFC with 13 goals this season, despite the predicted loss.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 18 appearances, 0.72 goals/game
Analysis
FC Cincinnati boast a strong home scoring record, averaging over three goals per game at home this season. Their attacking duo, K. Denkey and Evander, are in fine form, combining for 21 goals and numerous assists. Denkey, with 11 goals in 16 appearances, has been particularly clinical on home turf, netting five times in his last ten home matches. Evander complements this with his creativity, providing eight assists and ten goals this season, including seven assists in the last five games alone. New York City FC's main threat comes from N. Fernández Mercau, who leads their scoring charts with 13 goals. However, despite his efforts, the prediction leans heavily towards a home win, with FC Cincinnati expected to lead 1-0 at halftime and finish 3-1 victors.
Key facts
- 1.FC Cincinnati have a 74% aggregated probability of winning this match.
- 2.The most likely fulltime scoreline is 3-1 in favour of FC Cincinnati.
- 3.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 to FC Cincinnati.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC have won 10, FC Cincinnati 6, with 4 draws.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 3.6 total goals.
- 6.K. Denkey has scored 11 goals in 16 appearances this season.
- 7.Evander has contributed 10 goals and 8 assists in 16 appearances.
- 8.N. Fernández Mercau is New York City FC's top scorer with 13 goals.
Prediction
Expect FC Cincinnati to take the lead by halftime, maintaining control and extending their advantage to a 3-1 victory by fulltime. The home side's attacking prowess and recent form should prove decisive against New York City FC's defence.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FC Cincinnati
Away — New York City FC
The verdict
In summary, FC Cincinnati's potent attack and home scoring advantage make them the favourites to secure a comfortable win. New York City FC will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to contain Denkey and Evander if they hope to avoid defeat.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mboma Dem
Assist: Denkey
Luighi Hanri
Assist: Ojeda
Miazga
Yellow Card
Parks
Yellow Card
Nwobodo
Yellow Card
Luighi Hanri
Yellow Card
Echenique
Miazga
Traoré
Luighi Hanri
Denkey
Nwobodo
Fernández Mercau
Yellow Card
O'Toole
Parks
Ojeda
Gidi
Yellow Card
Smith
Evander
Assist: Valenzuela
Match Statistics
FC Cincinnati
3-5-2Starting XI
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 10EvanderF
- 12M. RobinsonD
- 17K. Mboma DemM
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 20P. BuchaM
- 21M. MiazgaD
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 24K. SmithD
- 66E. EcheniqueM
Substitutes
- 2A. PowellD
- 4N. HagglundD
- 11S. GidiM
- 13E. LouroG
- 15T. HadebeD
- 16T. BarlowF
- 27B. AnungaM
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónD
- 99A. JabbariF
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6J. SandsD
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 8A. PereaM
- 9B. TraoréM
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 49M. FreeseG
- 55K. ParksM
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 15K. PierreM
- 23Maxwell MurrayD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 35M. IleničD
- 88M. JonesF
- 99S. ReidF
FC Cincinnati
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evander(C) | F | 76 | 7.7 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Kenji Mboma Dem | M | 76 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2/2 |
| Roman Celentano | G | 76 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miles Robinson | D | 76 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gerardo Valenzuela | M | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kyle Smith | D | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Pavel Bucha | M | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Ender Echenique | M | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Matt Miazga | D | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Obinna Nwobodo | M | 72 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kévin Denkey | F | 72 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ayoub Jabbari | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Gidi | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evan Louro | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Hagglund | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alvas Powell | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tom Barlow | F | 4 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tah Anunga | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Teenage Hadebe | D | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Ramirez | D | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luighi Hanri | F | 64 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Keaton Parks | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 76 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Fernández | M | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| James Sands | D | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Matthew Freese(C) | G | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 76 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés Perea | M | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Bénie Traoré | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Talles Magno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mitja Ilenič | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Shore | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Murray | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Pierre | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Malachi Jones | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |