FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
Match recap
FC Cincinnati and Chicago Fire drew 3–3 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Evander and D'Avilla scored for FC Cincinnati; Cuypers, Zinckernagel, and Cuypers replied for Chicago Fire. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 4.12 for FC Cincinnati versus 1.75 for Chicago Fire.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-2 FC Cincinnati win
Actual
3–3
Outcome probability
FC Cincinnati and Chicago Fire are poised for a high-scoring encounter in this MLS regular season fixture. Both sides have shown attacking intent, promising plenty of action for the neutrals.
Match factors
Evander's absence weakens FC Cincinnati's attack
Evander is out with a leg injury, removing a key scorer and assister with 10 goals and 8 assists this season.
Denkey's scoring form boosts FC Cincinnati's chances
Denkey leads FC Cincinnati with 13 goals and strong recent form, likely to capitalize on home advantage.
Chicago Fire's Haile-Selassie excels in creativity
Haile-Selassie has 6 assists and strong recent form, providing key chances for Chicago Fire's attack.
Barlow's recent impact as scorer and assister
Barlow has 2 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games, showing rising influence for FC Cincinnati.
Chicago Fire missing key midfielders D'Avilla and Lod
D'Avilla suspended and Lod injured, weakening Chicago Fire's midfield depth and creativity.
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season's eighth round. FC Cincinnati have a slight edge historically, winning 8 of their 17 meetings against Chicago Fire, who have won 4, with 5 draws. The head-to-head average goals tally is a lively 3.1 per game, hinting at an open contest.
Key insights
Ahoueke Denkey
FC Cincinnati
Denkey's prolific scoring form, with 13 goals this season and 5 in the last 5 games, makes him a pivotal figure for FC Cincinnati's attack at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 appearances, 5 goals last 5 games
Maren Haile-Selassie
Chicago Fire
Haile-Selassie's creativity shines through with 6 assists and strong recent form, providing key chances for Chicago Fire's forwards.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 28 appearances
T. Barlow
FC Cincinnati
Barlow's recent impact with 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games adds an extra dimension to FC Cincinnati's attacking options.
Major League Soccer 26/271 goal in 8 appearances, 2 goals last 5 games
Analysis
FC Cincinnati's top scorer Ahoueke Denkey has been in fine form, netting 13 goals this season with 5 in the last 5 games, making him a key threat especially at home. Chicago Fire's Hugo Cuypers, also with 13 goals, remains a danger despite a recent goal drought. The absence of FC Cincinnati's creative force Evander due to a leg injury is a blow, but Denkey's scoring form and the contributions of T. Barlow, who has 2 goals and 2 assists in recent matches, bolster their chances. Chicago Fire face midfield challenges with D'Avilla suspended and Lod injured, which could hamper their creativity. Expect a lively, attacking game with goals aplenty.
Key facts
- 1.FC Cincinnati have won 8 of 17 meetings against Chicago Fire, who have 4 wins and 5 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.1 goals, indicating open play.
- 3.Ahoueke Denkey leads FC Cincinnati with 13 goals this season, including 5 in the last 5 games.
- 4.Hugo Cuypers is Chicago Fire's top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- 5.Evander is out with a leg injury, impacting FC Cincinnati's creativity and scoring.
- 6.Chicago Fire's midfield is weakened by D'Avilla's suspension and Lod's injury.
- 7.T. Barlow has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games for FC Cincinnati.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 2-1, with a fulltime score of 4-2.
Prediction
We predict FC Cincinnati will edge this one 4-2, overcoming a spirited Chicago Fire side. The halftime scoreline is expected to be 2-1 in favour of Cincinnati, setting the stage for a thrilling second half where they pull away. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FC Cincinnati
Away — Chicago Fire
The verdict
All signs point to an entertaining match with FC Cincinnati leveraging their attacking momentum and home advantage to claim a 4-2 victory. Chicago Fire will provide stern resistance, but the hosts' firepower should be decisive.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Cuypers
Goal
Zinckernagel
Penalty
Unknown
Cuypers
Robinson
Unknown
Unknown
Zinckernagel
Evander
Penalty
Dean
Lod
Unknown
D'Avilla (OG)
Haile-Selassie
Mbokazi
Yellow Card
Elliott
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Borso
Yellow Card
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
FC Cincinnati
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 10EvanderF
- 12M. RobinsonD
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónM
Substitutes
- 15T. HadebeD
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 24K. SmithD
Chicago Fire
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1C. BradyG
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 9H. CuypersF
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 15A. GutmanD
- 17R. LodF
- 24J. DeanD
- 42T. D'AvillaM
Substitutes
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 14V. RadojevićD
- 16J. WatermanD
- 20Jason ShokalookF
- 22M. PinedaD
- 27Dylan BorsoF
- 29D. PorębaM
- 35S. OregelM
- 44J. CohenG
FC Cincinnati
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evander | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1/4 |
| Bryan Ramirez | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3/3 |
| Miles Robinson(C) | D | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Roman Celentano | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gerardo Valenzuela | M | 20 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Kyle Smith | D | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Teenage Hadebe | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
Chicago Fire
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Brady | G | 90 | 9.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Cuypers | F | 90 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Philip Zinckernagel | M | 73 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Maren Haile-Selassie | M | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Jack Elliott(C) | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Anton Saletros | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Dje Tah D'Avilla | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Robin Lod | F | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Dean | D | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Andrew Gutman | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Poreba | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jason Shokalook | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Oregel | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio Pineda | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viktor Radojević | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Cohen | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dylan Borso | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Puso Dithejane | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joel Waterman | D | 17 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FC Cincinnati to win against Chicago Fire.
- What score did Fipster predict for FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster predicted a final score of FC Cincinnati 4–2 Chicago Fire.
- What were the win probabilities for FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster's model gave FC Cincinnati a 95% chance of winning, Chicago Fire a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.