FC Augsburg vs Bayern München
Bayern München snatch draw at Augsburg
A pulsating 2-2 sees Bayern claw back twice to deny Augsburg a win.
FC Augsburg started with a bang as R. Fellhauer netted in the opening minute, setting the tone for a thrilling encounter. Bayern München responded after the break through I. Saibari, only for Rodrigo Ribeiro to restore Augsburg's lead shortly after. N. Brown's strike late on ensured Bayern shared the spoils in a lively 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow Augsburg win.
Outcome probability
The new Bundesliga season kicks off with FC Augsburg facing Bayern München in what promises to be a tightly contested encounter. Both teams have refreshed their squads over the summer, with Augsburg bolstered by the arrivals of Seol Young-Woo, A. Ibrahimović on loan, and Abdulay Bah on loan, while Bayern have added I. Saibari and N. Brown to their ranks but parted ways with L. Goretzka. This match will test how well these changes have gelled as the campaign begins.
Key facts
- 1.FC Augsburg have strengthened their squad with Seol Young-Woo, A. Ibrahimović (loan), and Abdulay Bah (loan).
- 2.Bayern München have added I. Saibari and N. Brown but lost L. Goretzka to free agency.
- 3.This is the first league match of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season for both teams.
- 4.Aggregated probabilities favour a home win for Augsburg with a 1-0 scoreline as the most likely outcome.
- 5.Halftime score is predicted to be 1-0, consistent with the fulltime prediction.
- 6.Augsburg finished 9th last season with 43 points; Bayern topped the league with 89 points.
- 7.Bayern had a significantly better goal difference last season, scoring 102 goals.
- 8.Bayern's points-per-game last season (2.62) was notably higher than Augsburg's (1.26).
The context
This fixture marks the first competitive league game for both sides this season, so there are no current-season form lines to draw upon. Augsburg finished mid-table last season and have made some strategic additions to their squad, aiming to improve on that position. Bayern München, traditionally strong contenders, have also refreshed their squad but lost a key player in L. Goretzka. The stage is set for a classic opener where both teams will be eager to make a statement.
Analysis
Despite Bayern München's historical strength and superior goal difference last season, the prediction leans towards a home win for Augsburg. The aggregated probabilities favour Augsburg with a 64% chance of victory, particularly with a 1-0 scoreline being the most likely outcome. The halftime score is also expected to be 1-0, suggesting Augsburg may take an early lead and hold firm. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with a moderate number of cards expected, reflecting a hard-fought battle rather than a free-flowing spectacle.
Prediction
The forecast is for FC Augsburg to clinch a narrow 1-0 victory over Bayern München. Augsburg's summer signings could provide the edge needed to secure an early lead, which they are expected to defend resolutely. Bayern will find it tough to break down a disciplined Augsburg side, making this a cautious but confident call for the home team to start the season with three points.
The verdict
As the Bundesliga season gets underway, this match could set the tone for both teams. Augsburg will be buoyed by a predicted win that could boost their confidence, while Bayern will need to regroup quickly. Fans can expect a tactical battle with a tight scoreline, and perhaps a few cards to keep things spicy. A solid start for Augsburg could make all the difference in what promises to be an intriguing season ahead.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 15:26 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fellhauer
Matsima
Yellow Card
Ribeiro
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Saibari
Assist: Kane
Behrens
Yellow Card
Seol Young-Woo
Ribeiro
Saibari
Stanišić
Ribeiro
Brown
Assist: Kane
Abdulay Bah
Ibrahimović
Pavlović
Díaz
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 |  Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 |  RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 |  FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
Match Statistics
FC Augsburg
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1F. DahmenG
- 2C. BrackelmannD
- 4H. MassengoM
- 5C. MatsimaD
- 7Seol Young-WooM
- 9Rodrigo RibeiroF
- 16Hennes BehrensM
- 19R. FellhauerM
- 21A. IbrahimovićM
- 32F. RiederM
- 35Abdulay BahD
Substitutes
- 6J. GouweleeuwD
- 8K. SusoM
- 10M. KömürM
- 11M. GregoritschF
- 14Y. KeitelM
- 22N. LabrovićG
- 30A. KadeM
- 37T. SchnitzerM
- 39U. OgunduF
Bayern München
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. NeuerG
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 4J. TahD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 9H. KaneF
- 14L. DíazM
- 17M. OliseM
- 19A. DaviesD
- 34I. SaibariM
- 44J. StanišićD
- 45A. PavlovićM
Substitutes
- 3Kim Min-JaeD
- 7S. GnabryF
- 8T. BischofM
- 11N. BrownD
- 21H. ItoD
- 23S. BoeyD
- 39Bara NdiayeM
- 40J. UrbigG
- 42L. KarlM
FC Augsburg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Ribeiro | F | 75 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/4 |
| R. Fellhauer | M | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| F. Dahmen | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Matsima | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| C. Brackelmann | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| H. Massengo | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Abdulay Bah | D | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Gregoritsch | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ibrahimović | M | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| M. Kömür | M | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Kade | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Hennes Behrens | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Seol Young-Woo | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| F. Rieder | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| J. Gouweleeuw | D | 8 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Schnitzer | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Labrović | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Keitel | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Suso | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Ogundu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bayern München
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 8.2 | — | 2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| N. Brown | D | 23 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| I. Saibari | M | 67 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 6 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| A. Pavlović | M | 87 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| M. Olise | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4/12 |
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| L. Díaz | M | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| A. Davies | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/4 |
| S. Gnabry | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| M. Neuer | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Tah | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bischof | M | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Karl | M | 3 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Urbig | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bara Ndiaye | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Ito | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kim Min-Jae | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Boey | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FC Augsburg to win against Bayern München.
- What score did Fipster predict for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
- Fipster predicted a final score of FC Augsburg 1–0 Bayern München.
- What were the win probabilities for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
- Fipster's model gave FC Augsburg a 44% chance of winning, Bayern München a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 44% confidence — a low-confidence call.