Famalicao vs Sporting CP
Famalicao snatch draw from Sporting's penalty lead
A late own goal denies Sporting a deserved away win in Primeira Liga.
Sporting CP looked set to take all three points after L. Suárez converted a penalty in the 81st minute. However, Famalicao salvaged a point thanks to an own goal by Gonçalo Inácio in stoppage time. This 1-1 draw defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win for Sporting.
Outcome probability
As the Portuguese league season unfolds, Famalicao face a stern test against Sporting CP, known as Os Leões. Both teams have shown contrasting fortunes so far, setting the stage for an intriguing clash.
Match factors
Sporting's potent attack vs Famalicao's leaky defense
Sporting averages 2.8 goals per game with strong scorers Suárez and Gonçalves, while Famalicao concedes 1 goal per game and has defensive vulnerabilities.
Koutsias' strong recent scoring form
Koutsias has scored 3 goals in last 5 games, showing good finishing form despite Famalicao's struggles.
Catamo's creative influence for Sporting
Catamo leads Sporting with 3 assists in 4 games, well above league average for midfielders, boosting team's goal chances.
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so predicted lineups likely to feature key scorers and assisters.
The context
Sporting CP currently sit 3rd in the league with 10 points from 4 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +9. Famalicao, on the other hand, are 13th with just 3 points from 5 games and a leaky defence conceding around a goal per match. Historically, Sporting have dominated this fixture, winning 12 of their 17 meetings.
Key insights
- L
Luis Suárez Charris
Sporting CP
Top scorer for Sporting with 3 goals in 4 games, showing clinical finishing and high impact despite limited minutes.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 4 apps, 214 mins
Georgios Koutsias
Famalicao
Strong recent scoring form with 3 goals in last 5 games, key to Famalicao's attacking hopes.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in last 5 games, 4 apps, 332 mins
Geny Catamo
Sporting CP
Leading assister with 3 assists in 4 games, crucial creative force in Sporting's attacking transitions.
Primeira Liga 26/273 assists in 4 apps, 277 mins
Analysis
Sporting CP's attack is firing on all cylinders, with Luis Suárez Charris leading the charge with 3 goals in 4 games and Flávio Gonçalves contributing both goals and assists. Geny Catamo's creativity, with 3 assists, further boosts their offensive threat. Famalicao's Georgios Koutsias has been a bright spot, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 games, but the home side's defensive vulnerabilities are likely to be exploited by Sporting's potent forward line.
Key facts
- 1.Sporting CP have won 12 of 17 head-to-head matches against Famalicao.
- 2.Sporting CP are 3rd in the league with 10 points from 4 games.
- 3.Famalicao sit 13th with 3 points from 5 games.
- 4.Sporting CP have a superior goal difference (+9) compared to Famalicao.
- 5.Luis Suárez Charris has scored 3 goals in 4 games for Sporting.
- 6.Georgios Koutsias has netted 3 goals in his last 5 games for Famalicao.
- 7.Geny Catamo leads Sporting with 3 assists in 4 games.
- 8.Famalicao concede approximately 1 goal per game this season.
Prediction
We expect Sporting CP to secure a 2-1 away win. The data strongly favours the visitors, with the most probable scoreline being 2-1. Famalicao will likely find the net through Koutsias, but Sporting's superior firepower should see them edge this contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Famalicao
Away — Sporting CP
The verdict
In summary, Sporting CP's attacking quality and recent form suggest they will overcome Famalicao's resistance. Expect a competitive match with goals at both ends, but ultimately a win for Os Leões.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal cancelled
Dias
Yellow Card
Dias
Koutsias
Gonçalves
Luis Guilherme
Catamo
Yellow Card
Doumbia
Catamo
Sorriso
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Suárez
Penalty
Peña
Sorriso
Suárez
Yellow Card
Beney
Red Card
Gonçalo Inácio (OG)
Fresneda
Yellow Card
Irankunda
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +13 | 18 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +17 | 16 |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +7 | 15 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |  Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
Match Statistics
Famalicao
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 7SorrisoM
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 21Tamás SzücsM
- 23Gil DiasM
- 25L. CarevićG
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
- 1I. ZlobinG
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 3L. RealpeD
- 5L. MeyerD
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 10Pedro SantosF
- 11Óscar ArandaF
- 18R. BeneyF
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 33P. SalasF
- 36M. MattaraD
Sporting CP
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Rui SilvaG
- 5Sergi AltimiraM
- 6Z. DebastD
- 10Geny CatamoM
- 20M. AraújoD
- 22Iván FresnedaD
- 25Gonçalo InácioD
- 31Luis GuilhermeM
- 58Flávio GonçalvesM
- 77I. DoumbiaM
- 97L. SuárezF
Substitutes
- 4S. AndersenM
- 7F. IoannidisF
- 9Rafael Ferreira NelF
- 13G. VagiannidisD
- 17R. ZalazarM
- 19N. IrankundaF
- 21Pedro LimaM
- 28J. DerryF
- 30KaiqueG
- 50Rodrigo DiasD
- 72Eduardo QuaresmaD
- 73Eduardo FelicíssimoM
Famalicao
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Víctor Rofino | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Abubakar | F | 30 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Óscar Aranda | F | 7 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| L. Carević | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathias De Amorim | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| Marcos Peña | M | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gil Dias | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tamás Szücs | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Salas | F | 8 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Francisco | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. van Breemen | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Koutsias | F | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinheiro | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Sorriso | M | 83 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| R. Beney | F | 42 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Meyer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathis Jangeal | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Realpe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mattara | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Moreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Zlobin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Garcia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sporting CP
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergi Altimira | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Z. Debast | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Suárez | F | 90 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| I. Doumbia | M | 75 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Rui Silva | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Ioannidis | F | 26 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Iván Fresneda | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Araújo | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| S. Andersen | M | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luis Guilherme | M | 64 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/4 |
| N. Irankunda | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Geny Catamo | M | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/6 |
| Gonçalo Inácio | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Flávio Gonçalves | M | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| R. Zalazar | M | 26 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Felicíssimo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Derry | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Ferreira Nel | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Lima | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduardo Quaresma | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Vagiannidis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Dias | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Sporting CP to win against Famalicao.
- What score did Fipster predict for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Famalicao 1–2 Sporting CP.
- What were the win probabilities for Famalicao vs Sporting CP?
- Fipster's model gave Famalicao a 7% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.