Famalicao vs Arouca
Match recap
Famalicao beat Arouca 1–0 in their Primeira Liga fixture. Paulo Moreira scored for Famalicao. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.71 for Famalicao versus 0.22 for Arouca. Famalicao sit 10th in the Primeira Liga table while Arouca are 5th.
Outcome probability
Famalicao and Arouca face off in the 11th round of the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league table. Arouca currently hold a points advantage and look to continue their strong form.
Match factors
Famalicao's attacking duo in strong form
Koutsias and Sorriso combine goal threat and creativity, key to breaking down Arouca's defense
Arouca's home assist leader Djouahra key to attack
Djouahra's 5 assists this season, especially strong at home, boost Arouca's scoring chances
Famalicao's recent away scoring form strong
Koutsias scored 5 goals in last 10 away games, indicating good form on the road
Arouca's defensive solidity and set-piece threat
Fontán and van Breemen provide defensive stability and goal threat from set pieces
No confirmed injuries for either team
Full squads available, so tactical and form factors dominate the match outcome
The context
Famalicao sit 11th with 10 points from 9 games, while Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 10 matches. Historically, their head-to-head record is fairly balanced, with Arouca holding a slight edge in wins.
Key insights
Georgios Koutsias
Famalicao
Top scorer with 4 goals in 8 games, showing strong away form with 5 goals in last 10 away matches, key to Famalicao's attack.
Primeira Liga 26/274 goals in 8 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
Näis Djouahra
Arouca
Leading assister for Arouca with 5 assists in 10 games, excellent home form with 3 assists in last 5 home games, vital creative force.
Primeira Liga 26/275 assists in 10 appearances, 0.5 assists/game
José Fontán
Arouca
Defender with 2 goals this season, provides defensive stability and set-piece threat, important for Arouca's balance.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in 10 appearances, 0.2 goals/game
Analysis
Arouca's superior points-per-game ratio and strong home performances, particularly from key playmaker Näis Djouahra with 5 assists this season, give them the edge. Famalicao's attacking duo, Georgios Koutsias and Sorriso, offer goal threat and creativity, but Arouca's defensive solidity and set-piece threat from José Fontán and Finn van Breemen could prove decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Famalicao are 11th with 10 points from 9 games (W2 D4 L3).
- 2.Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 10 games (W6 D2 L2).
- 3.Arouca have a points-per-game advantage of 2.00 over Famalicao's 1.11.
- 4.In 14 head-to-head meetings, Arouca have won 6, Famalicao 5, with 3 draws.
- 5.Näis Djouahra leads Arouca with 5 assists this season.
- 6.Georgios Koutsias is Famalicao's top scorer with 4 goals in 8 games.
- 7.José Fontán contributes defensively and offensively with 2 goals this season.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Arouca with a 2-1 scoreline. Arouca are expected to take a 1-0 lead by halftime and withstand Famalicao's attempts to equalise before securing the win late on.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Famalicao
Away — Arouca
The verdict
Expect a closely contested match with Arouca's tactical discipline and key players making the difference. Famalicao will fight hard, but Arouca's consistency should see them through.
Prediction generated 1 Nov 2026, 22:20 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Javi Sánchez
Yellow Card
Penalty cancelled
Pedro Santos
Yellow Card
Flores
Trezza
Pedro Santos
Sorriso
Barbero
Beney
Koutsias
Djouahra
Aranda
Yellow Card
Fukui
van Ee
Yellow Card
Paulo Moreira
José Fontán
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | +22 | 33 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 20 |
| 9 |  Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |  Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
Match Statistics
Famalicao
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 4F. van BreemenD
- 6T. van de LooiM
- 7SorrisoM
- 10Pedro SantosM
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 18R. BeneyM
- 25L. CarevićG
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
- 1I. ZlobinG
- 3L. RealpeD
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 11Óscar ArandaF
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 22GabrielG
- 23Gil DiasF
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 30V. SerafimovićD
- 33P. SalasF
Arouca
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3José FontánD
- 6E. van EeM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 17BarberoF
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
Substitutes
- 1J. VinarčíkG
- 2L. ShaharD
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 5B. PopovićD
- 9F. MayuluF
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 14Lee Hyun-JuM
- 20G. RukavinaF
- 23D. NandínF
- 24B. MansillaF
- 37Mario ClimentD
Famalicao
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Carević | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. van de Looi | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| F. van Breemen | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Víctor Rofino | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Garcia | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Óscar Aranda | F | 24 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Mathias De Amorim | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 5/6 |
| R. Beney | M | 74 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6/7 |
| Pedro Francisco | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Sorriso | M | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4/6 |
| Gil Dias | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Paulo Moreira | M | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Salas | F | 16 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Santos | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| G. Koutsias | F | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Mathis Jangeal | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Zlobin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Realpe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Serafimović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Abubakar | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Peña | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Arouca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. de Arruabarrena | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Djouahra | M | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| T. Fukui | M | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Pablo Gozálbez | M | 34 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Javi Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lee Hyun-Ju | M | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Rukavina | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Fontán | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tiago Esgaio | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Flores | M | 56 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| A. Trezza | M | 56 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| D. Nandín | F | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Barbero | F | 69 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Mansilla | F | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| O. Lebedenko | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| E. van Ee | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| B. Popović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Mayulu | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Monteiro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Climent | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Shahar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Vinarčík | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Famalicao vs Arouca?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Arouca to win against Famalicao.
- What score did Fipster predict for Famalicao vs Arouca?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Famalicao 1–2 Arouca.
- What were the win probabilities for Famalicao vs Arouca?
- Fipster's model gave Famalicao a 12% chance of winning, Arouca a 76% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 76% confidence — a high-confidence call.