Famalicao vs Alverca
Match recap
Alverca beat Famalicao 4–1 in their Primeira Liga fixture. Rofino scored for Famalicao; Chiquinho, Figueiredo, Vivaldo Semedo, and André Vidigal replied for Alverca. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.35 for Famalicao versus 2.86 for Alverca. Famalicao sit 13th in the Primeira Liga table while Alverca are 8th.
Outcome probability
Famalicao and Alverca face off in the 8th round of their league campaign, both teams eager to climb the table. With Famalicao sitting 11th and Alverca 13th, this match could be crucial for momentum.
Match factors
Koutsias' prolific away scoring form
Georgios Koutsias has scored 5 goals in 7 games this season with a strong 1.25 goals per away game, making him a key threat for Famalicao
Mathias De Amorim's creative surge
De Amorim has provided 3 assists in last 5 games, well above league average for midfielders, boosting Famalicao's attacking chances
Alverca's defender Diogo Spencer as key assist threat
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques has 2 assists in 2 games, an unusual creative edge from defense that could exploit Famalicao's defensive gaps
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, so all key scorers and assisters are available to influence the match
Chiquinho's aggressive playstyle risks disciplinary issues
Chiquinho's high card rate and recent red card could impact Alverca's attacking stability if cautioned or suspended
The context
The two sides have met three times before, with Famalicao winning twice and Alverca once. Their encounters have been low-scoring affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game, reflecting a cautious approach from both teams.
Key insights
Georgios Koutsias
Famalicao
Koutsias is a key goal threat with 5 goals this season, averaging 1.25 goals per away game, well above league average.
Primeira Liga 26/275 goals in 7 games this season, 1.25 goals per away game
Mathias De Amorim
Famalicao
De Amorim has been creative with 3 assists in the last 5 games, making him a vital playmaker.
Primeira Liga 26/273 assists in last 7 games, 0.75 assists per away game
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Alverca
Spencer is an unusual creative force from defence with 2 assists in 2 games, threatening on set-pieces.
Primeira Liga 26/272 assists in 2 games, 1 assist per game
- D
Dawda Camara Sankharé
Alverca
Sankharé has scored 3 goals in the last 5 games, showing strong finishing and recent form.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 7 games, 0.6 goals per last 5 games
Analysis
Famalicao have a better goal difference and slightly more points, but Alverca's recent form and attacking threats make them a dangerous opponent. Georgios Koutsias leads Famalicao's attack with 5 goals this season, particularly strong away from home. Meanwhile, Alverca's Dawda Camara Sankharé has been in good scoring form, netting 3 goals recently. Alverca's defender Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques also poses a creative threat with his set-piece assists. Disciplinary caution is advised for Alverca's Chiquinho, whose aggressive style could lead to cards.
Key facts
- 1.Famalicao are 11th with 7 points from 7 games (W1 D4 L2).
- 2.Alverca are 13th with 5 points from 6 games (W1 D2 L3).
- 3.In 3 head-to-head matches, Famalicao have won 2, Alverca 1, no draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 1.7 goals per game.
- 5.Famalicao have a better goal difference (+5) than Alverca this season.
- 6.Most probable total cards count in this match is 4.
Prediction
Despite the home side's slight edge in the standings, the prediction leans towards an away win for Alverca by 2-1. The match is expected to be competitive, with a total of around four cards likely to be shown.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Famalicao
Away — Alverca
The verdict
Expect a tight contest with Alverca just shading it thanks to their attacking edge and key players in form. Famalicao will push hard, but the visitors' recent momentum could prove decisive.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 18:59 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Francisco
Yellow Card
Rofino
Yellow Card
Chiquinho
Mattara
Chissumba
Yellow Card
De Amorim
Yellow Card
Rofino
Assist: Peña
Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Yellow Card
Figueiredo
Assist: Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques
Szücs
Peña
Francisco
Gui
Camara
Figueiredo
Chiquinho
Vivaldo Semedo
Assist: Mendes
Koutsias
James
André Vidigal
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 24 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 |  SC Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 7 |
Match Statistics
Famalicao
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7SorrisoM
- 8Marcos PeñaM
- 14Mathias De AmorimM
- 15Víctor RofinoD
- 17Rodrigo PinheiroD
- 21Tamás SzücsM
- 23Gil DiasM
- 25L. CarevićG
- 28Pedro FranciscoD
- 36M. MattaraD
- 70G. KoutsiasF
Substitutes
- 1I. ZlobinG
- 2Gustavo GarciaD
- 3L. RealpeD
- 6T. van de LooiM
- 9U. AbubakarF
- 10Pedro SantosF
- 19Paulo MoreiraM
- 22GabrielG
- 24Mathis JangealM
- 30V. SerafimovićD
- 33P. SalasF
Alverca
3-4-3Starting XI
- 6D. GuiM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 12I. JamesD
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 19D. CamaraF
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 22FigueiredoF
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 35RayanM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
Substitutes
- 2ZoubdiF
- 4Y. BojangD
- 7André VidigalF
- 8Vasco MoreiraM
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 17S. MerhegF
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 27Toni TamaritF
- 91JhonatanG
- 93Zé RafaelM
Famalicao
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Peña | M | 65 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Víctor Rofino | D | 90 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mathias De Amorim | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | 1/3 |
| Pedro Santos | F | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| G. Koutsias | F | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| P. Salas | F | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gil Dias | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Tamás Szücs | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| T. van de Looi | M | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Realpe | D | 70 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Pinheiro | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| U. Abubakar | F | 12 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sorriso | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| L. Carević | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mattara | D | 20 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Pedro Francisco | D | 65 | 5.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Paulo Moreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Serafimović | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Zlobin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mathis Jangeal | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Garcia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alverca
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiquinho | F | 74 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Figueiredo | F | 74 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/3 |
| Vivaldo Semedo | F | 16 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| André Vidigal | F | 24 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Mendes | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus França | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Baseya | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Gui | M | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| I. James | D | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Rafael | M | 24 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rayan | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Camara | F | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Francisco Chissumba | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Jhonatan | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Nuozzi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Bojang | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Merheg | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Tamarit | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vasco Moreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zoubdi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Famalicao vs Alverca?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Alverca to win against Famalicao.
- What score did Fipster predict for Famalicao vs Alverca?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Famalicao 1–2 Alverca.
- What were the win probabilities for Famalicao vs Alverca?
- Fipster's model gave Famalicao a 31% chance of winning, Alverca a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 37% confidence — a low-confidence call.