Excelsior vs Twente
Twente dismantle Excelsior with nine-goal blitz
Wout Weghorst's four-goal haul spearheads a ruthless away demolition.
Twente delivered a stunning performance at Excelsior, running out 9-0 winners in the Eredivisie. Wout Weghorst was the star of the show, netting four times including a penalty, while D. Rots and others added to the rout. Despite predicting a comfortable Twente win, Fipster underestimated the scale of the thrashing, though the away victory call was spot on.
Outcome probability
Excelsior face a tough challenge against Twente in this Regular Season - 11 clash. With Twente showing stronger form and goal-scoring prowess, the visitors look poised to take control early and extend their advantage.
Match factors
Twente's superior goal-scoring form
Twente averages 1.9 goals/game with a 55.6% win rate, outperforming Excelsior's 1.6 goals/game and 30% win rate
Weghorst's scoring threat vs Excelsior defense
Weghorst's 4 goals in 9 games and strong recent form pose a major challenge for Excelsior's defense
Yegoian's consistent attacking contributions
Yegoian has scored and assisted recently, showing good form despite Excelsior's struggles
Twente missing key defenders and goalkeeper
Twente's confirmed outs include two defenders and their goalkeeper, potentially weakening defensive stability
Zerrouki's midfield control and passing
Zerrouki's high passing volume and accuracy (68 passes/game at 87%) gives Twente midfield dominance
The context
Twente currently sit 6th in the league with 17 points from 9 games, comfortably ahead of Excelsior who are 13th with 11 points from 10 matches. Historically, Twente have a slight edge in their 18 meetings, winning 7 to Excelsior's 5, suggesting a competitive but favourable matchup for the visitors.
Key insights
Wout Weghorst
Twente
Weghorst's 4 goals in 9 games and recent form make him a major threat to Excelsior's defence.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 9 appearances, 0.44 goals/game
- R
Ramiz Zerrouki
Twente
Zerrouki's high passing volume and accuracy give Twente midfield dominance, crucial for controlling the game.
Eredivisie 26/2768 passes/game at 87% accuracy
- I
I. Yegoian
Excelsior
Yegoian's consistent attacking contributions provide Excelsior with some offensive hope despite their struggles.
Eredivisie 26/27Recent goals and assists
Analysis
Twente's attacking threat is led by Wout Weghorst, who has netted 4 goals in 9 appearances and is in good recent form. Midfielder Ramiz Zerrouki's midfield dominance, with 68 passes per game at 87% accuracy, will be key in controlling the tempo. Excelsior's defence will need to be alert, especially with Twente's ability to convert chances. Despite some defensive absences for Twente, their offensive quality and superior goal difference make them favourites to take the win.
Key facts
- 1.Twente are 6th with 17 points from 9 games; Excelsior are 13th with 11 points from 10 games.
- 2.Twente have a goal difference of +10, significantly better than Excelsior's.
- 3.In 18 head-to-head matches, Twente have won 7 times, Excelsior 5.
- 4.Wout Weghorst leads Twente's scoring with 4 goals in 9 games.
- 5.Ramiz Zerrouki averages 68 passes per game with 87% accuracy, controlling midfield.
- 6.Predicted halftime score is 0-1 in favour of Twente.
- 7.Total cards expected in the match are around 4, indicating moderate discipline issues.
Prediction
The prediction is a 3-1 away win for Twente, with the visitors expected to lead 1-0 at halftime. The match is likely to feature moderate disciplinary action, with an estimated total of 4 cards. Twente's superior goal-scoring form and tactical edge should see them comfortably outscore Excelsior.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Excelsior
No standout top scorers flagged for Excelsior
Away — Twente
The verdict
In summary, Twente's attacking firepower and midfield control should prove decisive against Excelsior. Expect a confident performance from the visitors, securing a 3-1 victory and continuing their strong league campaign.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 20:54 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Groen
Red Card
Weghorst
Assist: Ørjasæter
Weghorst
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Weghorst
Assist: Ørjasæter
Weghorst
Assist: Ørjasæter
van den Belt
Hartjes
Yellow Card
Rots
Assist: Ørjasæter
Nijstad
van Vianen
Sliti
van Rooij
Bawuah
Assist: Ørjasæter
Penalty confirmed
Weghorst
Penalty
Weghorst
Yegoian
Ørjasæter
Zerrouki
Penalty
Pröpper
Rots
Assist: van den Belt
Naujoks
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 3 |  Ajax | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +17 | 25 |
| 4 |  Twente | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +18 | 24 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Excelsior
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 6D. van VianenM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 8I. YegoianF
- 10N. NaujoksM
- 12K. BosD
- 14J. PlugD
- 20L. HartjesM
- 28N. GroenF
Substitutes
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraF
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 15S. JanssenD
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 19D. GardenF
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 23Y. FineyM
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
Twente
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3R. PröpperD
- 4R. NijstadD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 10Y. TahaM
- 11D. RotsF
- 16J. DrommelG
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 27S. ØrjasæterF
- 28B. van RooijD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
Substitutes
- 2M. RosiakD
- 7M. PjacaF
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 18Jordy BawuahM
- 22R. PasveerG
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 31Yannick GerritsenG
- 39J. MeilinkD
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. van Gassel | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sliti | F | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | F | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Domínguez | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| I. Yegoian | F | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Naujoks | M | 83 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. van Vianen | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| V. Sulzbacher | M | 7 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Plug | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Hartjes | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Bos | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Janssen | D | 27 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Groen | F | 5 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Widell | D | 90 | 5.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Meissen | D | 90 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Celton Biai | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Á. Þorsteinsson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Garden | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Silva Timas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Finey | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giulliano Cairo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Jahanbakhsh | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Twente
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Weghorst | F | 63 | 9.8 | 4 | — | 5 | 4 | 2 | — |
| D. Rots | F | 90 | 9.3 | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| S. Ørjasæter | F | 63 | 9.0 | — | 5 | — | — | 5 | 1/1 |
| T. van den Belt | M | 90 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jordy Bawuah | M | 44 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Adelgaard | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1/1 |
| R. Zerrouki | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| R. Pröpper | D | 72 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. van Rooij | D | 46 | 7.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Nijstad | D | 46 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Taha | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1/4 |
| M. Pjaca | F | 27 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| K. Hlynsson | M | 18 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Drommel | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rosiak | D | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Vennegoor of Hesselink | F | 27 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Meilink | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Pasveer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Kurowski | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yannick Gerritsen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Excelsior vs Twente?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Twente to win against Excelsior.
- What score did Fipster predict for Excelsior vs Twente?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Excelsior 1–3 Twente.
- What were the win probabilities for Excelsior vs Twente?
- Fipster's model gave Excelsior a 2% chance of winning, Twente a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.