Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior edge Sparta in late thriller
N. Groen's stoppage-time strike seals a 2-1 victory for Excelsior.
Excelsior secured a narrow 2-1 win over Sparta Rotterdam in the Eredivisie, with A. Sliti opening the scoring before M. Zonneveld levelled shortly after the break. The match was ultimately decided by N. Groen's dramatic goal in stoppage time, ensuring all three points for the home side. Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a 2-1 home win proved spot on.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Excelsior facing Sparta Rotterdam in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Both teams have reshaped their squads over the summer, aiming to make a strong start and build momentum early on.
Key facts
- 1.Excelsior have lost D. Sanches Fernandes, A. Zagré, and I. Bronkhorst over the summer.
- 2.Sparta Rotterdam have signed N. Verschuren and lost T. Lauritsen and J. Kitolano.
- 3.Excelsior finished last season with a better goal difference than Sparta Rotterdam.
- 4.The predicted full-time score is 2-1 in favour of Excelsior.
- 5.This is the first competitive fixture of the new season for both teams.
- 6.Excelsior are ranked 13th and Sparta Rotterdam 10th in last season's league standings.
The context
Excelsior enter this fixture having lost key players like D. Sanches Fernandes, A. Zagré, and I. Bronkhorst, which could test their depth. Meanwhile, Sparta Rotterdam have bolstered their ranks with the arrival of N. Verschuren but have also parted ways with T. Lauritsen and J. Kitolano. These changes set an intriguing backdrop for the season opener.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Excelsior
Away — Sparta Rotterdam
Analysis
Looking at the probabilities, Excelsior hold the edge with the highest chance of victory, supported by a better goal difference last season compared to Sparta Rotterdam. The predicted 2-1 scoreline suggests a closely fought match, with Excelsior likely to leverage their home advantage and tactical setup to outscore their visitors. The midfield battle and defensive resilience will be key factors in determining the outcome.
Prediction
The forecast sees Excelsior clinching a 2-1 win over Sparta Rotterdam. This result aligns with the strongest aggregate probability and the most likely full-time scoreline. Expect a tight contest with moments of quality from both sides, but ultimately the home side should come out on top.
The verdict
As the season gets underway, this fixture could set the tone for both teams. Excelsior will be keen to start with a win to compensate for their summer departures, while Sparta Rotterdam will look to their new signing to make an impact. Fans can anticipate a spirited match with a narrow victory for Excelsior.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Toornstra
Yellow Card
Sliti
Yellow Card
Þorsteinsson
Yellow Card
Robin van Cruijsen
Zonneveld
Assist: van Bergen
Sliti
van Vianen
Þorsteinsson
Garden
van Bergen
Toornstra
Unknown
Baas
Groen
Assist: Silva Timas
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
Match Statistics
Excelsior
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 6D. van VianenM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 8I. YegoianM
- 14J. PlugD
- 19D. GardenF
- 20L. HartjesM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraF
- 5S. HenderikxD
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 12K. BosF
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 23Y. FineyM
- 28N. GroenF
- 40Tijmen HollaG
Sparta Rotterdam
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1F. BednarekG
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 6J. BaasM
- 7Robin van CruijsenM
- 8J. ToornstraM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 10S. MitoM
- 11M. van BergenM
Substitutes
- 12B. ReithD
- 13N. VerschurenD
- 14Teo QuinteroD
- 15G. VianelloD
- 16A. RoaldsøyM
- 17C. TerhoF
- 20P. KuiperG
- 22Joel IdehoF
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Groen | F | 23 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| A. Sliti | F | 59 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| I. Yegoian | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6/9 |
| J. Plug | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Widell | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| I. Silva Timas | F | 23 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. Bos | F | 5 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | F | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. van Vianen | M | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Hartjes | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Meissen | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Garden | F | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| S. van Gassel | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Á. Þorsteinsson | F | 67 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Jahanbakhsh | F | 31 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tijmen Holla | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Finey | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Sulzbacher | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Henderikx | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sparta Rotterdam
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zonneveld | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| M. van Bergen | M | 83 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| M. Young | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Martins Indi | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Baas | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Mito | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Joel Ideho | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Kuipers | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Terho | F | 51 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Toornstra | M | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| A. Roaldsøy | M | 7 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| N. Verschuren | D | 1 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin van Cruijsen | M | 39 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bednarek | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Reith | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kuiper | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Vianello | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Teo Quintero | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Excelsior to win against Sparta Rotterdam.
- What score did Fipster predict for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Excelsior 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam.
- What were the win probabilities for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Fipster's model gave Excelsior a 49% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 49% confidence — a medium-confidence call.