Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven
PSV edge Excelsior in tight contest
Van Bommel and Pepi strike to secure narrow away win.
PSV Eindhoven took an early lead through R. van Bommel's 5th-minute goal, only for Excelsior's C. Widell to level shortly after the break at 54 minutes. However, PSV quickly restored their advantage with R. Pepi scoring two minutes later, sealing a 2-1 victory. Fipster's low-confidence prediction of an away win with this exact scoreline proved spot on.
Outcome probability
The new football season kicks off with an intriguing clash between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven. Both teams are eager to set the tone early, with fresh squads and ambitions in tow.
Key facts
- 1.PSV Eindhoven finished last season with 84 points from 34 games, ranking 1st in their league.
- 2.Excelsior ended last season ranked 13th with 38 points from 34 games.
- 3.PSV Eindhoven had a significantly better goal difference, scoring 69 more goals than Excelsior last season.
- 4.PSV Eindhoven averaged 2.47 points per game last season, compared to Excelsior's 1.12.
- 5.Excelsior lost D. Sanches Fernandes and I. Bronkhorst during the summer transfer window.
- 6.PSV Eindhoven signed S. Mijnans and saw the departure of I. Saibari ahead of the new season.
- 7.The predicted full-time score is 2-1 in favour of PSV Eindhoven.
- 8.The match marks the opening fixture of the 2026-27 regular season.
The context
Excelsior enter this fixture having lost key players D. Sanches Fernandes and I. Bronkhorst over the summer, which could impact their depth. PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have bolstered their ranks with the signing of S. Mijnans but have parted ways with I. Saibari. These changes set the stage for a competitive encounter as both sides look to make a strong start.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Excelsior
Away — PSV Eindhoven
Analysis
PSV Eindhoven hold a clear advantage based on last season's performances, with a superior goal difference and points-per-game ratio compared to Excelsior. While Excelsior will aim to leverage home advantage and disrupt PSV's rhythm, the visitors' attacking prowess and squad depth suggest they are favourites to claim the three points. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects a closely contested match but with PSV edging ahead.
Prediction
The forecast sees PSV Eindhoven clinching a 2-1 victory over Excelsior. Despite the low confidence in this call, the away side's quality and summer reinforcements give them the edge in what promises to be an entertaining opener.
The verdict
As the season gets underway, this fixture offers a glimpse of the battles to come. Expect PSV to start strongly, but Excelsior will be keen to prove their mettle and challenge the visitors. A 2-1 win for PSV seems the most likely outcome, setting the tone for their campaign.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
van Bommel
Silva Timas
Sliti
Widell
Assist: Yegoian
Pepi
Assist: Dest
van Bommel
Wanner
Unknown
Perišić
Hartjes
van Vianen
Janssen
Pepi
Plug
Yellow Card
Dest
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +15 | 16 |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 16 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +8 | 10 |
| 6 |  Excelsior | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +6 | 10 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Excelsior
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 6D. van VianenM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 8I. YegoianM
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 19D. GardenF
- 20L. HartjesM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
Substitutes
- 5S. HenderikxD
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 17N. MartensD
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 22O. TurayD
- 23Y. FineyM
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 28N. GroenF
- 30A. JahanbakhshF
PSV Eindhoven
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4A. ObispoD
- 5I. PerišićF
- 6R. FlamingoD
- 7R. van BommelF
- 8S. DestD
- 9R. PepiF
- 10P. WannerM
- 17Mauro JúniorD
- 20G. TilM
- 23J. VeermanM
- 32M. KovářG
Substitutes
- 1N. OlijG
- 3Yarek GasiorowskiD
- 19E. BajraktarevicF
- 21S. MijnansM
- 24K. SanoM
- 25K. SildilliaD
- 27D. ManF
- 37A. BouhamdiF
- 38F. MeriénD
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casper Widell(C) | D | 93 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Irakli Yegoian | M | 93 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lennard Hartjes | M | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stijn van Gassel | G | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rick Meissen | D | 93 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Garden | F | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aymen Sliti | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ilano Silva Timas | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Daniel van Vianen | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Simon Janssen | D | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jan Plug | D | 93 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Giuliano Cairo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentin Sulzbacher | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stan Henderikx | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Celton Biai | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Domínguez | F | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alireza Jahanbakhsh | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Yaqub Finey | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nesto Groen | F | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Osman Turay | D | 48 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Nolan Martens | D | 48 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
PSV Eindhoven
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Veerman | M | 93 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Sergiño Dest | D | 89 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3/5 |
| Ruben van Bommel | F | 63 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ricardo Pepi | F | 84 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Matěj Kovář | G | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ryan Flamingo | D | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ivan Perišić | F | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Guus Til | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armando Obispo | D | 93 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Wanner | M | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Mauro Júnior(C) | D | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nick Olij | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Esmir Bajraktarević | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kiliann Sildillia | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yarek Gasiorowski | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabian Merién | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Amir Bouhamdi | F | 30 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 3/4 |
| Sven Mijnans | M | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kodai Sano | M | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Dennis Man | F | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
- Fipster's AI model predicted PSV Eindhoven to win against Excelsior.
- What score did Fipster predict for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Excelsior 1–2 PSV Eindhoven.
- What were the win probabilities for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
- Fipster's model gave Excelsior a 32% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.