Excelsior vs Groningen
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Challenge a friendExcelsior and Groningen face off in what promises to be an entertaining fixture in the regular season. Both teams sit close in the league standings, making this a crucial match for momentum and bragging rights.
The context
Excelsior currently hold 10 points from 6 games, placing them 7th in the league, while Groningen are just a spot above with 11 points from 7 matches. Their head-to-head history shows Groningen with a slight edge, having won 10 of their 20 meetings compared to Excelsior's 5, with 5 draws. Matches between these sides tend to be lively, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
Match factors
Groningen's attacking edge with top scorers
Groningen's Willumsson and van Bergen lead scoring with 4 goals each, boosting their attack potential
Excelsior's defensive strength in tackles
Jan Plug's high tackle and interception rates provide Excelsior a defensive edge against Groningen's attack
Yegoian's recent standout form
Irakli Yegoian's recent high ratings and goal contributions indicate strong form momentum for Excelsior
Potential impact of Noah Naujoks if fit
Naujoks is doubtful but his 2 goals and high rating suggest he could influence Excelsior's attacking threat
Analysis
Groningen's attacking threat is spearheaded by Brynjólfur Andersen Willumsson, who boasts 4 goals in 7 appearances and has been particularly effective away from home, netting 3 times in 3 away matches. Thom van Bergen also adds firepower with 4 goals and 2 assists this season, making Groningen's forward line a handful. Excelsior, meanwhile, rely on defensive solidity from Jan Plug, whose tackling and interception stats provide a backbone against Groningen's attack. Irakli Yegoian's recent form offers Excelsior some attacking promise, but the absence or doubt over key players like Noah Naujoks could limit their offensive options.
Key insights
Brynjólfur Andersen Willumsson
Groningen
Top scorer with 4 goals in 7 games, especially clinical away with 3 goals in 3 away matches, making him a key threat in this fixture.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 7 appearances, 0.57 goals/game
Thom van Bergen
Groningen
A dual threat with 4 goals and 2 assists this season, van Bergen's creativity and finishing boost Groningen's attacking options.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances
- J
Jan Plug
Excelsior
Defensive stalwart with high tackle and interception numbers, providing a crucial barrier against Groningen's forwards.
Eredivisie 26/2713 tackles and 9 interceptions this season
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Irakli Yegoian
Excelsior
In excellent recent form with a goal and assist in the last match, adding momentum to Excelsior's attack.
Eredivisie 26/271 goal and 1 assist in last match
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a narrow away win for Groningen, with a 3-2 scoreline reflecting the expected high-scoring nature of this fixture. While the probabilities favour Groningen, the margin is slim and the match could swing either way, making this a cautiously optimistic call for the visitors.
Key facts
- 1.Groningen lead head-to-head with 10 wins out of 20 matches against Excelsior.
- 2.Matches between these teams average 2.6 goals, indicating an attacking game.
- 3.Excelsior sit 7th with 10 points from 6 games; Groningen are 6th with 11 points from 7 games.
- 4.Brynjólfur Andersen Willumsson has scored 4 goals this season, 3 of them away.
- 5.Thom van Bergen contributes 4 goals and 2 assists, key to Groningen's attack.
- 6.Jan Plug leads Excelsior in tackles and interceptions, anchoring their defence.
- 7.Irakli Yegoian is in good form with recent goal and assist contributions.
- 8.Noah Naujoks is doubtful but could boost Excelsior's attack if fit.
The verdict
In summary, expect an open and competitive match with both teams pushing for victory. Groningen's attacking edge and recent form give them the slight upper hand, but Excelsior's defensive efforts and home resilience mean this will be a contest worth watching until the final whistle.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Excelsior
No standout top scorers flagged for Excelsior
Away — Groningen
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 19:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who does Fipster predict will win Excelsior vs Groningen?
- Fipster's AI model predicts Groningen to win against Excelsior.
- What is the predicted score for Excelsior vs Groningen?
- Fipster predicts a final score of Excelsior 2–3 Groningen.
- What are the win probabilities for Excelsior vs Groningen?
- Fipster's model gives Excelsior a 32% chance of winning, Groningen a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident is Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigns this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.