Excelsior vs Groningen
Groningen storm past Excelsior in dominant display
A commanding 5-1 victory sees Groningen comfortably outclass Excelsior at home.
Groningen set the tone early with M. Rente's strike in the 7th minute and never looked back, adding a penalty from T. van Bergen and a goal from B. Willumsson after the break. Excelsior's I. Yegoian pulled one back with a penalty before conceding an own goal to Groningen's S. van Gassel, further tipping the scales. Rente capped off the emphatic win with a stoppage-time goal, sealing a comprehensive 5-1 triumph. Fipster's low-confidence prediction of an away win was on the money, though the margin of victory was far more emphatic than expected.
Outcome probability
Excelsior and Groningen face off in what promises to be an entertaining fixture in the regular season. Both teams sit close in the league standings, making this a crucial match for momentum and bragging rights.
Match factors
Groningen's attacking edge with top scorers
Groningen's Willumsson and van Bergen lead scoring with 4 goals each, boosting their attack potential
Excelsior's defensive strength in tackles
Jan Plug's high tackle and interception rates provide Excelsior a defensive edge against Groningen's attack
Yegoian's recent standout form
Irakli Yegoian's recent high ratings and goal contributions indicate strong form momentum for Excelsior
Potential impact of Noah Naujoks if fit
Naujoks is doubtful but his 2 goals and high rating suggest he could influence Excelsior's attacking threat
The context
Excelsior currently hold 10 points from 6 games, placing them 7th in the league, while Groningen are just a spot above with 11 points from 7 matches. Their head-to-head history shows Groningen with a slight edge, having won 10 of their 20 meetings compared to Excelsior's 5, with 5 draws. Matches between these sides tend to be lively, averaging 2.6 goals per game.
Key insights
Brynjólfur Andersen Willumsson
Groningen
Top scorer with 4 goals in 7 games, especially clinical away with 3 goals in 3 away matches, making him a key threat in this fixture.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 7 appearances, 0.57 goals/game
Thom van Bergen
Groningen
A dual threat with 4 goals and 2 assists this season, van Bergen's creativity and finishing boost Groningen's attacking options.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances
- J
Jan Plug
Excelsior
Defensive stalwart with high tackle and interception numbers, providing a crucial barrier against Groningen's forwards.
Eredivisie 26/2713 tackles and 9 interceptions this season
- I
Irakli Yegoian
Excelsior
In excellent recent form with a goal and assist in the last match, adding momentum to Excelsior's attack.
Eredivisie 26/271 goal and 1 assist in last match
Analysis
Groningen's attacking threat is spearheaded by Brynjólfur Andersen Willumsson, who boasts 4 goals in 7 appearances and has been particularly effective away from home, netting 3 times in 3 away matches. Thom van Bergen also adds firepower with 4 goals and 2 assists this season, making Groningen's forward line a handful. Excelsior, meanwhile, rely on defensive solidity from Jan Plug, whose tackling and interception stats provide a backbone against Groningen's attack. Irakli Yegoian's recent form offers Excelsior some attacking promise, but the absence or doubt over key players like Noah Naujoks could limit their offensive options.
Key facts
- 1.Groningen lead head-to-head with 10 wins out of 20 matches against Excelsior.
- 2.Matches between these teams average 2.6 goals, indicating an attacking game.
- 3.Excelsior sit 7th with 10 points from 6 games; Groningen are 6th with 11 points from 7 games.
- 4.Brynjólfur Andersen Willumsson has scored 4 goals this season, 3 of them away.
- 5.Thom van Bergen contributes 4 goals and 2 assists, key to Groningen's attack.
- 6.Jan Plug leads Excelsior in tackles and interceptions, anchoring their defence.
- 7.Irakli Yegoian is in good form with recent goal and assist contributions.
- 8.Noah Naujoks is doubtful but could boost Excelsior's attack if fit.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a narrow away win for Groningen, with a 3-2 scoreline reflecting the expected high-scoring nature of this fixture. While the probabilities favour Groningen, the margin is slim and the match could swing either way, making this a cautiously optimistic call for the visitors.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Excelsior
No standout top scorers flagged for Excelsior
Away — Groningen
The verdict
In summary, expect an open and competitive match with both teams pushing for victory. Groningen's attacking edge and recent form give them the slight upper hand, but Excelsior's defensive efforts and home resilience mean this will be a contest worth watching until the final whistle.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 19:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rente
van der Werff
Yellow Card
Yegoian
Penalty
van Gassel (OG)
Penalty confirmed
van Bergen
Penalty
Janssen
Þorsteinsson
Garden
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
Ondrejka
Willumsson
Assist: Clement
Hateboer
Land
Yellow Card
Sliti
Willumsson
van der Werff
van Bergen
Rente
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | +21 | 23 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 |  Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 14 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 |  Excelsior | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
Match Statistics
Excelsior
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 3R. MeissenM
- 4C. WidellD
- 7A. SlitiF
- 8I. YegoianM
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 19D. GardenF
- 20L. HartjesM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
- 6D. van VianenM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 12K. BosF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 22O. TurayD
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 28N. GroenF
Groningen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. VaessenG
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 5M. RenteD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 11J. OndrejkaM
- 14J. SchreudersD
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 24P. ClementM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 33H. HateboerD
Substitutes
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 16A. NordinM
- 18T. LandM
- 19O. ZawadaF
- 20Nils EggensF
- 30P. BoevinkG
- 34R. MetuF
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 53J. HallM
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Yegoian | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| K. Bos | F | 25 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Á. Þorsteinsson | F | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| A. Sliti | F | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| J. Plug | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Meissen | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Domínguez | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| D. Garden | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| C. Widell | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. van Gassel | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Hartjes | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Sulzbacher | M | 25 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| D. van Vianen | M | 25 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| A. Jahanbakhsh | F | 9 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Janssen | D | 65 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | D | 65 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Celton Biai | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Silva Timas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Groen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Turay | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giulliano Cairo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Groningen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Willumsson | F | 84 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Rente | D | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Schreuders | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| T. van Bergen | M | 85 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2/3 |
| P. Clement | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| T. Blokzijl | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| H. Hateboer | D | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Vaessen | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Zawada | F | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nils Eggens | F | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Metu | F | 5 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Csinger | D | 18 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. van der Werff | M | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| T. de Jonge | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| T. Land | M | 24 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ondrejka | M | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| L. Štubljar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Boevink | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wouter Prins | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Nordin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mosselaar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hall | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Excelsior vs Groningen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Groningen to win against Excelsior.
- What score did Fipster predict for Excelsior vs Groningen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Excelsior 2–3 Groningen.
- What were the win probabilities for Excelsior vs Groningen?
- Fipster's model gave Excelsior a 32% chance of winning, Groningen a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.