Everton vs Liverpool
Match recap
Liverpool beat Everton 2–1 in their Premier League fixture. Beto scored for Everton; Salah, van Dijk, and van Dijk replied for Liverpool. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.79 for Everton versus 1.45 for Liverpool. Everton sit 13th in the Premier League table while Liverpool are 5th.
Analysis
The Merseyside derby always promises drama, but this time around, Everton and Liverpool look set to share the points in a 1-1 draw. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, making for a balanced contest.
Everton, playing at home, have shown consistent scoring form recently, led by their top scorer Beto. Liverpool, missing key attackers Salah and Ekitike due to injury and international duty, will rely on their defensive stalwarts like Van Dijk to keep things tight. Historically, Liverpool have the upper hand in this fixture, but Everton's home advantage and recent form make this a close call.
Beto's recent goal-scoring spree gives Everton a clear attacking edge, especially at Goodison Park. Meanwhile, Liverpool's attack is somewhat blunted without Salah and Ekitike, though Van Dijk's defensive leadership offers stability. Everton's James Garner adds creativity and defensive solidity in midfield, balancing the scales. The predicted 1-1 scoreline reflects the tight nature of the contest, with both sides likely to find the net once.
Prediction
The highest probability outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a 35% confidence level. This aligns with the expected goals difference being close to zero and the modal halftime score of 0-0. Expect a competitive match with four total cards, reflecting the derby's intensity but disciplined play.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Everton's Beto vs Liverpool Defense
Beto's strong recent scoring form and good finishing pose a key threat to Liverpool's defense, especially with some defensive absences.
Liverpool Missing Key Attackers
Liverpool's attack is weakened by absences of Salah and Ekitike, reducing their goal-scoring potency.
Everton's Midfield Creativity
James Garner's high assist rate and passing accuracy give Everton a creative edge in midfield against Liverpool's defense.
Van Dijk's Defensive Leadership
Van Dijk's presence and passing ability provide Liverpool with defensive stability and build-up play advantage.
Everton's Recent Home Scoring
Everton has scored consistently at home recently, supporting their predicted goal in this fixture.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Everton and Liverpool are poised to share the spoils in a 1-1 draw. Both teams have key players influencing the game, but absences and home advantage balance out. Fans can expect a tight, tactical battle with moments of quality from both sides.
- Everton have won 2 of the last 20 meetings against Liverpool, with 7 draws and 11 Liverpool wins.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, with Liverpool scoring 29 and Everton 15 in total.
- Everton are 10th in the league with 47 points from 33 games (13 wins, 8 draws, 12 losses).
- Liverpool sit 5th with 55 points from 33 games (16 wins, 7 draws, 10 losses).
- Beto is Everton's top scorer with 7 goals, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- James Garner leads Everton in assists with 6 and boasts high passing accuracy (87%).
- Virgil van Dijk provides defensive stability for Liverpool with high passing accuracy (89%) and aerial presence.
- The modal total cards count for the match is 4, indicating a competitive but disciplined game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Everton
Away — Liverpool
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pickford
Yellow Card
Goal Disallowed - offside
Goal cancelled
Salah
Assist: Gakpo
Beto
Assist: Dewsbury-Hall
Mamardashvili
Isak
Beto
McNeil
Gakpo
Wirtz
Robertson
Branthwaite
van Dijk
Assist: Szoboszlai
Garner
Yellow Card
van Dijk
Assist: Szoboszlai
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | +7 | 65 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | +10 | 60 |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | +4 | 57 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -2 | 49 |
| 13 |  Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -3 | 49 |
| 14 |  Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | -7 | 47 |
Match Statistics
Everton
Starting XI
- 1J. PickfordG
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 7D. McNeilM
- 9BetoF
- 10I. NdiayeM
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 22K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 27I. GueyeM
- 32J. BranthwaiteD
- 37J. GarnerM
Substitutes
- 2N. PattersonD
- 5M. KeaneD
- 11T. BarryF
- 12M. TraversG
- 19Tyrique GeorgeF
- 20T. DiblingM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 34M. RöhlM
- 42T. IroegbunamM
Liverpool
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4V. van DijkD
- 5I. KonatéD
- 7F. WirtzM
- 8D. SzoboszlaiM
- 9A. IsakF
- 11Mohamed SalahM
- 17C. JonesD
- 18C. GakpoM
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 26A. RobertsonD
- 38R. GravenberchM
Substitutes
- 6M. KerkezD
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 14F. ChiesaF
- 28F. WoodmanG
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 41Á. PécsiG
- 42T. NyoniM
- 73R. NgumohaF
Everton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| James Garner | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Beto | F | 73 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jarrad Branthwaite | D | 87 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Iliman Ndiaye | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/6 |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Idrissa Gana Gueye | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jake O'Brien | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jordan Pickford | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| James Tarkowski(C) | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Dwight McNeil | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Carlos Alcaraz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Iroegbunam | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Dibling | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mark Travers | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Patterson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Merlin Röhl | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrique George | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Thierno Barry | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael Keane | D | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Liverpool
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/5 |
| Virgil van Dijk(C) | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Curtis Jones | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Ibrahima Konaté | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominik Szoboszlai | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Giorgi Mamardashvili | G | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andy Robertson | D | 86 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Alexander Isak | F | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Ryan Gravenberch | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Florian Wirtz | M | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| Cody Gakpo | M | 84 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Federico Chiesa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ármin Pécsi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trey Nyoni | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Freddie Woodman | G | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miloš Kerkez | D | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Mac Allister | M | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jeremie Frimpong | D | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Rio Ngumoha | F | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |