Everton vs Chelsea
Chelsea's Neto double downs Everton
Pedro Neto's brace secures a solid away win for Chelsea.
Chelsea stunned Everton with a 2-0 victory in the Premier League, thanks to Pedro Neto's goals just after the break and at the 90th minute. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-0 Everton win, the visitors turned the script on its head with a disciplined performance. This result was a clear upset against the expected home triumph.
Outcome probability
Everton and Chelsea face off in the seventh round of the regular season, with the Toffees looking to extend their unbeaten home run. Chelsea, known as the Blues or the Pensioners, will need to overcome Everton's strong recent performances to claim points.
Match factors
Chelsea's attacking trio in strong form
João Pedro, Morgan Rogers, and Cole Palmer show consistent goal and assist contributions, posing a significant threat to Everton's defense.
Everton's home scoring streak
Everton has scored in their last 3 home games, averaging 1.67 goals, supporting their predicted 3-0 win.
João Pedro's recent scoring surge
João Pedro has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games, indicating peak form ahead of this match.
Everton's doubtful defenders may affect defense
Doubtful status of M. Röhl, C. Nørgaard, and V. Mykolenko could weaken Everton's defensive solidity if they miss out.
The context
Everton currently sit eighth in the league with 9 points from 5 games, unbeaten at home with two wins and three draws. Chelsea are fifth with 10 points from 6 games but have shown some inconsistency with two losses already. Historically, Chelsea have a slight edge in head-to-head meetings, but Everton's home form is a key factor here.
Key insights
João Pedro
Everton
João Pedro leads Everton's attack with 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 games, including 5 goals in his last 5 matches, making him a key factor in the predicted win.
Premier League 26/273 goals in 4 games, 3 assists in 4 games, 5 goals in last 5 games
Morgan Rogers
Chelsea
Morgan Rogers is a consistent scorer with 3 goals in 5 games, providing a notable offensive threat for Chelsea.
Premier League 26/273 goals in 5 games, 4 goals in last 10 games
Cole Palmer
Chelsea
Cole Palmer contributes creativity with 2 assists in 5 games, potentially unlocking Everton's defence.
Premier League 26/272 assists in 5 games, 2 assists in last 5 games
Analysis
The prediction leans heavily towards a home win, supported by Everton's scoring streak at home, averaging 1.67 goals in their last three home matches. João Pedro leads Everton's attack with 3 goals and 3 assists in 4 games, including 5 goals in his last 5 outings, making him a significant threat. Chelsea's attacking trio, including Morgan Rogers and Cole Palmer, pose challenges but Everton's defensive organisation and home advantage are expected to prevail. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 aligns with the fulltime forecast of 3-0, suggesting Everton will control the match early and maintain dominance.
Key facts
- 1.Everton are unbeaten at home with 2 wins and 3 draws this season.
- 2.Chelsea have 10 points from 6 games, sitting 5th in the league.
- 3.João Pedro has scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists in 4 games for Everton.
- 4.Everton have scored in their last 3 home games, averaging 1.67 goals per game.
- 5.Chelsea have lost 2 of their 6 league matches this season.
- 6.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Chelsea have won 9, Everton 6, with 5 draws.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of Everton.
- 8.The modal total number of cards predicted is 4.
Prediction
We expect Everton to take an early lead and build on it, finishing with a 3-0 victory over Chelsea. The match is also predicted to see around 4 total cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Everton
No standout top scorers flagged for Everton
Away — Chelsea
The verdict
With Everton's strong home form and key players in fine scoring touch, this match looks set for a comfortable Toffees win. Chelsea will need to tighten their defence and find a way to break down Everton's attack if they are to avoid a heavy defeat.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Armstrong
Yellow Card
Neto
Yellow Card
Joshua Kofi Acheampong
Yellow Card
Tarkowski
Yellow Card
Rogers
Yellow Card
Neto
Maitland-Niles
Palmer
Yellow Card
Martínez
Armstrong
Grealish
Nørgaard
Yellow Card
João Pedro
Caicedo
Hato
Neto
Neto
Match Statistics
Everton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2A. Maitland-NilesD
- 4J. BranthwaiteD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 10J. GrealishM
- 11T. BarryF
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 34M. RöhlM
- 37J. GarnerM
- 45H. ArmstrongM
Substitutes
- 12M. TraversG
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 19Tyrique GeorgeF
- 20T. DiblingF
- 22B. JohnsonF
- 23C. NørgaardM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 30H. HackneyM
- 58B. GrahamF
Chelsea
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. MartínezG
- 5M. LacroixD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 9João PedroF
- 10C. PalmerM
- 14J. HendersonM
- 17M. RogersM
- 21J. HatoD
- 25M. CaicedoM
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
Substitutes
- 2M. PalestraD
- 3W. FofanaD
- 4V. BarcoM
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 32M. Nicoll-JazuliM
- 39M. PendersG
- 41EstêvãoF
- 45R. LaviaM
Everton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Mykolenko | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| J. Branthwaite | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Pickford | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Grealish | M | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Garner | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Barry | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| K. Dewsbury-Hall | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Röhl | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| Tyrique George | F | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/5 |
| B. Johnson | F | 5 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Maitland-Niles | D | 55 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Tarkowski | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| C. Nørgaard | M | 5 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Armstrong | M | 85 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Hackney | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Travers | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. O'Brien | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Dibling | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Graham | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Alcaraz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Chelsea
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Neto | M | 102 | 9.7 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | 5 | — |
| E. Martínez | G | 75 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lacroix | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Hato | D | 92 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Joshua Kofi Acheampong | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| M. Caicedo | M | 92 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Penders | G | 15 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Henderson | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| L. Colwill | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Palmer | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| M. Rogers | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| João Pedro | F | 92 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| W. Fofana | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Lavia | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Barco | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Palestra | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geovany Tcherno Quenda | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Estêvão | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Welbeck | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Nicoll-Jazuli | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Everton vs Chelsea?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Everton to win against Chelsea.
- What score did Fipster predict for Everton vs Chelsea?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Everton 3–0 Chelsea.
- What were the win probabilities for Everton vs Chelsea?
- Fipster's model gave Everton a 85% chance of winning, Chelsea a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.