Estrela vs Casa Pia
Casa Pia stifle Estrela with a clean sheet
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo and L. Ofori secure a solid 2-0 away win.
Casa Pia pulled off a neat 2-0 victory at Estrela, with João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo breaking the deadlock in the first half and L. Ofori sealing the win deep into stoppage time. The result was a surprise upset against Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a home win, proving Casa Pia's defence and finishing sharper than expected.
Outcome probability
Estrela and Casa Pia face off in the ninth round of the regular season, both eager to improve their league standings. With Estrela holding a stronger position and Casa Pia looking to upset the odds, this match promises a competitive encounter.
Match factors
Estrela's key midfielders in strong scoring form
Ianis Stoica and Abraham Marcus have multiple recent goals and high ratings, driving Estrela's attack.
Casa Pia's defensive strength anchored by David Sousa
David Sousa's high tackle and interception counts with strong duel win rate bolster Casa Pia's defense.
Estrela's attacking midfielders pose threat to Casa Pia's defense
Estrela's midfielders have high goal involvement and ratings, likely to exploit Casa Pia's defensive vulnerabilities.
Casa Pia's Henrique Araújo is their main scoring outlet
Araújo leads Casa Pia's scoring with 2 goals in last 5 games, key to their limited offensive threat.
The context
Estrela currently sit 9th in the league with 10 points from eight games, while Casa Pia find themselves 17th with just four points. Historically, Estrela have the upper hand in their head-to-head record, winning five of nine meetings against Casa Pia's three victories and one draw.
Key insights
- I
Ianis Stoica
Estrela
Ianis Stoica has been a key attacking force with multiple goals and high match ratings, driving Estrela's recent form.
Primeira Liga 26/27Multiple goals and match ratings up to 9.09 in this season's competition.
- A
Abraham Marcus
Estrela
Abraham Marcus consistently contributes goals and has excellent form, making him a threat in midfield.
Primeira Liga 26/27Multiple goals and match ratings up to 9.09 in this season's competition.
- D
David Sousa
Casa Pia
David Sousa anchors Casa Pia's defence with high tackle and interception counts and a strong duel win rate.
Primeira Liga 26/2717 tackles, 11 interceptions, 64.56% duel win rate in 8 games.
- H
Henrique Araújo
Casa Pia
Henrique Araújo is Casa Pia's main scoring outlet, with 2 goals in the last 5 games.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in last 5 games of this season's competition.
Analysis
The match is expected to be tightly contested, with a likely goalless first half as both sides feel each other out. Estrela's midfielders Ianis Stoica and Abraham Marcus have been in fine scoring form recently, providing a significant attacking threat. Casa Pia's defence, anchored by David Sousa, will be tested by Estrela's creative play. Casa Pia's main offensive outlet, Henrique Araújo, will need to be at his best to challenge Estrela's defence and keep his side in the game.
Key facts
- 1.Estrela lead the head-to-head with 5 wins in 9 matches against Casa Pia.
- 2.Estrela are 9th in the league with 10 points from 8 games (W2 D4 L2).
- 3.Casa Pia are 17th with 4 points from 8 games (W1 D1 L6).
- 4.Estrela have a superior goal difference (+13) compared to Casa Pia (-14).
- 5.The most probable halftime score is 0-0, suggesting a tight first half.
- 6.Estrela's Ianis Stoica and Abraham Marcus have multiple recent goals and high match ratings.
- 7.Casa Pia's David Sousa is a defensive standout with 17 tackles and 11 interceptions in 8 games.
- 8.Henrique Araújo is Casa Pia's leading scorer with 2 goals in the last 5 games.
Prediction
We anticipate a 0-0 halftime scoreline, reflecting a cautious start. However, Estrela's attacking midfield prowess should break the deadlock in the second half, leading to a 2-1 victory. The match is expected to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estrela
Away — Casa Pia
The verdict
In summary, Estrela's stronger league form and key players' recent performances give them the edge over Casa Pia. While Casa Pia will fight hard, Estrela are likely to clinch the win in a closely fought encounter.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 06:20 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
Assist: El Boukammiri
Cassiano
El Boukammiri
Rafa Soares
Stoica
Sequeira
Yellow Card
Zvonarek
Scholze
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
Pérez
Pauwels
Eddy Doue
Ofori
Assist: Araújo
Jefferson Encada
Yellow Card
Rosas
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Estrela
4-5-1Starting XI
- 5S. LekovićD
- 10I. StoicaM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 24Léo LinckG
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 39Eddy DoueM
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 99A. MarcusM
Substitutes
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 19Joan JordánM
- 22David GriloG
- 28T. MoustierM
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 72H. PoniewasF
- 79A. ChernevD
- 80AlissonF
- 93B. SouzaM
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1P. SequeiraG
- 3KalyD
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 18GeraldesD
- 24S. PérezM
- 43David SousaD
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 80L. OforiM
- 90CassianoF
Substitutes
- 4João GoulartD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 16SilviM
- 17E. MaurinF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 20A. JattaF
- 27Kaique RochaD
- 29J. LivolantF
- 44Felipe SilvaD
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 98JPM
Estrela
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Leković | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| A. Marcus | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| Rafa Soares | D | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Léo Linck | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Scholze | D | 72 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| T. Moustier | M | 18 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alisson | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Serra | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Eddy Doue | M | 83 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| L. Mincarelli Davin | D | 29 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Stoica | M | 61 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| B. Souza | M | 29 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Antonetti | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Jefferson Encada | D | 18 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Zvonarek | M | 72 | 5.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| K. Höög Jansson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joan Jordán | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Chernev | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Grilo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Schappo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Pinto | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Poniewas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Casa Pia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo | M | 78 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| L. Ofori | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| P. Sequeira | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. El Boukammiri | M | 60 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Geraldes | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| David Sousa | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kaly | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Livolant | F | 30 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Pedro Rosas | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabi Pereira | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Pauwels | M | 83 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Silvi | M | 12 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Pérez | M | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Prieto | F | 7 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Henrique Araújo | F | 30 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Cassiano | F | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Jatta | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Goulart | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivan Mandić | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Maurin | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Silva | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Rocha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Estrela to win against Casa Pia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estrela 2–1 Casa Pia.
- What were the win probabilities for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster's model gave Estrela a 56% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 56% confidence — a medium-confidence call.