Estoril vs Moreirense
Moreirense storms Estoril with early blitz
A rapid-fire trio of goals in the first half sealed a shock away win for Moreirense.
Moreirense dismantled Estoril with three quickfire goals from Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça, Tiago Andrade, and N. John all before the half-hour mark, leaving the home side shell-shocked. Estoril's Peixinho managed a consolation goal deep in stoppage time, but it was too little, too late. This emphatic 3-1 away victory defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a narrow home win.
Outcome probability
Estoril and Moreirense face off in the ninth round of the regular season, both eager to improve their league standing. With Estoril struggling near the bottom and Moreirense holding a mid-table position, this match promises a tactical battle with limited scoring chances.
Match factors
Moreirense's key attackers show moderate scoring form
Alexandre Duville-Parsemain leads with 1 goal in 6 games, showing potential to score despite team's overall struggles
Kiko's defensive prowess could disrupt Estoril's attack
Kiko leads Moreirense in tackles and interceptions, providing a defensive edge against Estoril's limited scoring
Moreirense's attackers have recent assist contributions
Multiple players including Duville-Parsemain and Kiko Bondoso have recent assists, indicating creative potential
No confirmed injuries for either team, full squads likely
Both teams have no confirmed outs, so all key players remain available for impact
The context
The head-to-head record between Estoril and Moreirense is finely balanced, with Estoril having six wins, Moreirense five, and seven draws in their 18 meetings. Their encounters typically produce a moderate number of goals, averaging 2.6 per game, suggesting a competitive and closely matched fixture.
Key insights
Alexandre Duville-Parsemain
Moreirense
Top scorer and assister for Moreirense, showing key attacking threat despite the team's struggles.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal and 1 assist in 6 appearances, 434 minutes played
- K
Kiko
Moreirense
Leads the team in tackles and interceptions, providing a defensive edge that could disrupt Estoril's attack.
Primeira Liga 26/272.7 tackles per game, 14 interceptions, 55% duel win rate, 617 minutes played
Analysis
Moreirense currently enjoy better league form, sitting 12th with eight points compared to Estoril's 18th place and two points. However, the prediction leans towards a narrow home win for Estoril, likely decided by a single goal after a goalless first half. Defensive solidity will be key, with Moreirense's Kiko leading in tackles and interceptions, potentially disrupting Estoril's attack. Meanwhile, Moreirense's top scorer Alexandre Duville-Parsemain poses a threat but may find chances limited.
Key facts
- 1.Estoril have won 6 of 18 head-to-head matches against Moreirense, who have 5 wins, with 7 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, indicating moderate scoring potential.
- 3.Moreirense rank 12th with 8 points from 8 games; Estoril are 18th with 2 points from 7 games.
- 4.Moreirense have a points-per-game advantage (1.00) over Estoril (0.29).
- 5.The predicted full-time score is 1-0 in favour of Estoril.
- 6.The highest probability halftime score is 0-0, suggesting a tight first half.
- 7.A total of 4 cards is expected, reflecting a competitive match.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-0 victory for Estoril, with the first half expected to remain scoreless. The match is forecast to be tight, with a total of around four cards likely, reflecting the competitive nature of the game. Estoril's home advantage and determination to climb the table could be the difference.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estoril
No standout top scorers flagged for Estoril
Away — Moreirense
The verdict
In summary, expect a cautious and closely contested match with Estoril just about edging Moreirense. The balanced head-to-head record and current form suggest a tight game, but a late goal should see Estoril claim the three points.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 21:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Andrade
Omerović
Yellow Card
Tsoungui
Yellow Card
John
Omerović
Sánchez
Camblan
João Carvalho
Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Kiko Bondoso
John
Tsoungui
Andrade
Vonić
André Lacximicant
Yellow Card
Peixinho
Batista
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Estoril
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 5A. TsounguiM
- 6Xavi SintesD
- 9A. CamblanF
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 11N. OmerovićF
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 21R. JurišićD
- 99R. GuitaneF
Substitutes
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 7André LacximicantF
- 8XekaM
- 15Isma SierraD
- 16M. TurkG
- 17PeixinhoF
- 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 25S. AndreouD
- 35S. AmissahD
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 44M. RobinM
Moreirense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 13André FerreiraG
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 23N. JohnM
- 27KikoD
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 79L. VonićF
Substitutes
- 1AranhaG
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 11LandersonF
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 25Afonso AssisM
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 32JoséD
- 99MaranhãoF
Estoril
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferro | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| N. Omerović | F | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| J. Holsgrove | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| Xavi Sintes | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| R. Guitane | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| A. Camblan | F | 58 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| André Lacximicant | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Jurišić | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Peixinho | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/3 |
| A. Tsoungui | M | 69 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | — |
| Pedro Carvalho | D | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ricard Sánchez | D | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Xeka | M | 21 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Carvalho | M | 58 | 5.8 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Fernando Medrano | D | 32 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Joel Robles | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Andreou | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Robin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Turk | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isma Sierra | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Amissah | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Parreira Parente | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Arnolin | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Moreirense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. John | M | 69 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Tiago Andrade | M | 80 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça | M | 59 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Dinis Pinto | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| André Ferreira | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevyn Monteiro | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodri Alonso | M | 31 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Guilherme Liberato | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Álvaro Martínez | D | 10 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Batista | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kiko | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kiko Bondoso | M | 69 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Landerson | F | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Stjepanović | M | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Maranhão | F | 9 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Vonić | F | 81 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 4/4 |
| Afonso Assis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aranha | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chipyoka Songa | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estoril vs Moreirense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Estoril to win against Moreirense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estoril vs Moreirense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estoril 1–0 Moreirense.
- What were the win probabilities for Estoril vs Moreirense?
- Fipster's model gave Estoril a 52% chance of winning, Moreirense a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.