Estoril vs Casa Pia
Casa Pia snatch late win at Estoril
A tight contest breaks open with a late surge from Casa Pia.
Casa Pia overturned an early deficit to claim a 2-1 victory at Estoril in the Primeira Liga. Ricard Sánchez gave Estoril the lead after the break, but Silvi and B. Pauwels struck in the 70s and 89th minute to secure the win for Casa Pia. The result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a goalless draw, delivering a dramatic finish instead.
Outcome probability
Estoril and Casa Pia face off in what promises to be a cautious affair, with both sides struggling to make a significant impact in the league so far. Neither team has found much joy in front of goal, setting the stage for a tight, low-scoring contest.
Match factors
Begraoui's consistent scoring threat
Yanis Begraoui leads Estoril with 2 goals in 5 games, showing better scoring rate than league average attacker.
Medrano's assist contribution from defense
Fernando Medrano has 1 assist in 5 games, exceeding average defender assist rates in the league.
Estoril's recent scoring struggles
Estoril has scored only 2 goals in 5 games with a 0.4 average, reflecting offensive challenges despite Begraoui's efforts.
Casa Pia's limited attacking options
Casa Pia relies heavily on Henrique Araújo for goals, who has limited minutes and 1 goal in 6 games, reducing their scoring threat.
The context
Both Estoril and Casa Pia sit near the bottom of the league table, with Estoril holding 2 points from 5 games and Casa Pia just 1 point from 6. Their head-to-head history shows Estoril with a clear edge, having won six of their twelve meetings, while Casa Pia has managed just one win and five draws. Despite this, recent form suggests neither side is in a position to dominate.
Key insights
Yanis Begraoui
Estoril
Begraoui is Estoril's top scorer with 2 goals in 5 games, making him their main offensive threat despite the team's scoring struggles.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in 5 appearances, 0.4 goals/game
Fernando Medrano
Estoril
Medrano leads Estoril's assists with 1 in 5 games, providing creative spark from defence and set-pieces.
Primeira Liga 26/271 assist in 5 appearances, 0.2 assists/game
Henrique Araújo
Casa Pia
Araújo is Casa Pia's sole goal scorer with 1 goal in 6 games, but limited minutes reduce his overall impact.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 6 appearances, 0.17 goals/game
Analysis
The statistical picture points to a match where goals will be at a premium. Estoril's top scorer Yanis Begraoui has netted twice in five games, but the team overall has struggled to convert chances. Casa Pia's attacking threat is even more limited, relying heavily on Henrique Araújo, who has just one goal in six appearances. Defensively, both teams have shown resilience but also vulnerabilities, making a goalless draw a plausible outcome. The predicted four cards suggest a competitive, if not overly aggressive, encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Estoril leads the head-to-head with 6 wins to Casa Pia's 1 in 12 meetings.
- 2.Both teams are near the bottom of the league table with poor points tallies.
- 3.Estoril has scored only 2 goals in 5 games this season.
- 4.Casa Pia has managed just 1 goal in 6 games, highlighting their attacking struggles.
- 5.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals, but current form suggests fewer goals this time.
- 6.Predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
Given the current form and scoring trends, a 0-0 draw is the most likely result. Both teams are evenly matched in their struggles, and neither has demonstrated the firepower to break the deadlock. Expect a tight midfield battle with few clear-cut chances and a cautious approach from both sides.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estoril
Away — Casa Pia
The verdict
While Estoril holds the historical advantage, the present-day realities of their league form and goal-scoring difficulties suggest this fixture will end in a stalemate. Fans might not be treated to a goal fest, but the battle for points at the lower end of the table ensures a competitive match nonetheless.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Araújo
Missed Penalty
Isma Sierra
Yellow Card
Araújo
Camblan
Omerović
Robin
Sousa
Yellow Card
El Boukammiri
JP
Sánchez
Assist: Holsgrove
Silvi
Assist: Ofori
Silvi
João Carvalho
Xavi Sintes
Begraoui
Yellow Card
Arnolin
Yellow Card
João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
Pauwels
Assist: Pérez
Jatta
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Estoril
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 6Xavi SintesD
- 9A. CamblanM
- 10J. HolsgroveM
- 11N. OmerovićM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 14Y. BegraouiF
- 15Isma SierraD
- 21R. JurišićD
- 44M. RobinM
Substitutes
- 3Fernando MedranoD
- 5A. TsounguiD
- 7André LacximicantF
- 16M. TurkG
- 17PeixinhoF
- 19Tiago Parreira ParenteD
- 22Pedro CarvalhoD
- 35S. AmissahD
- 42J. ArnolinD
- 90Tiago BritoM
- 99R. GuitaneM
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3KalyD
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 11M. El BoukammiriM
- 16SilviM
- 18GeraldesD
- 43David SousaD
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 80L. OforiM
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 98JPM
Substitutes
- 1P. SequeiraG
- 4João GoulartD
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 10RochinhaF
- 17E. MaurinF
- 19K. PrietoF
- 20A. JattaF
- 24S. PérezM
- 59Abdu DafeM
- 77B. PauwelsF
- 90CassianoF
Estoril
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Holsgrove | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | 1/3 |
| Ricard Sánchez | D | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Y. Begraoui | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Xavi Sintes | D | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Omerović | M | 60 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Arnolin | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Tsoungui | D | 30 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| André Lacximicant | F | 10 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Jurišić | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| R. Guitane | M | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| M. Robin | M | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| João Carvalho | M | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Pedro Carvalho | D | 10 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Camblan | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Isma Sierra | D | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joel Robles | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Parreira Parente | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Turk | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fernando Medrano | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Amissah | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peixinho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Brito | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Casa Pia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Pauwels | F | 25 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Silvi | M | 74 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ivan Mandić | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ofori | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo | M | 87 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| David Sousa | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. El Boukammiri | M | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| E. Maurin | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Jatta | F | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Pérez | M | 16 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Geraldes | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kaly | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Rosas | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| JP | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Henrique Araújo | F | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Abdu Dafe | M | 3 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Rochinha | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Prieto | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cassiano | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sequeira | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Goulart | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabi Pereira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estoril vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Estoril and Casa Pia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estoril 0–0 Casa Pia.
- What were the win probabilities for Estoril vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster's model gave Estoril a 27% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 27% chance, and a 46% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 46% confidence — a medium-confidence call.