Estoril vs Benfica
Match recap
Benfica beat Estoril 3–1 in their Primeira Liga fixture. Peixinho scored for Estoril; Rios, Bah, and Rafa replied for Benfica. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.52 for Estoril versus 4.22 for Benfica. Estoril sit 10th in the Primeira Liga table while Benfica are 3rd.
Analysis
As the regular season nears its climax, Estoril hosts Benfica in what promises to be a compelling encounter. Benfica, sitting comfortably in third place, face a mid-table Estoril side looking to upset the odds on home turf.
Historically, Benfica have been the dominant force in this fixture, winning 17 of the last 20 meetings without a single loss to Estoril. The average of 3 goals per game in their head-to-head clashes suggests an open and attacking game.
Benfica's attacking prowess is led by V. Pavlidis, who boasts 23 goals this season and thrives particularly well away from home. Estoril's top scorer, Y. Begraoui, is no slouch either with 20 goals, but Benfica's midfield maestro J. Holsgrove is expected to control the game with his high passing accuracy and defensive contributions. The predicted halftime score of 0-1 aligns with Benfica's tendency to start strong on the road.
Prediction
We forecast a 2-1 victory for Benfica, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to be competitive, with a moderate total of 4 cards. Confidence in this prediction is high at 95%, reflecting Benfica's consistent form and tactical superiority.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Begraoui vs Benfica Defense
Begraoui's prolific scoring and recent form pose a major threat to Benfica's defense, which concedes 0.7 goals away on average.
Benfica's Superior Scoring Rate
Benfica averages 2.2 goals per game with a 67% win rate, indicating strong offensive capability against Estoril's weaker defense.
Benfica's Consistent Scoring Streak
Benfica has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong attacking momentum heading into this fixture.
Holsgrove's Midfield Control
Holsgrove's high passing and tackling stats suggest he will dominate midfield battles, aiding Benfica's control of the game.
No Key Injuries Reported
Both teams have no reported injuries, so full-strength squads expected, maintaining tactical balance.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Benfica's superior quality and historical dominance make them favourites to claim all three points at Estoril. Expect a tightly fought match with moments of attacking flair, but ultimately a deserved away win.
- Benfica have won 17 of 20 matches against Estoril, with 3 draws and no losses.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.0 total goals, indicating offensive strength.
- Benfica rank 3rd with 80 points; Estoril are 10th with 39 points, showing a clear quality gap.
- Benfica's V. Pavlidis is the league's top scorer with 23 goals, averaging 0.70 goals per game.
- Estoril's Y. Begraoui has scored 20 goals this season, averaging 0.61 goals per game.
- J. Holsgrove leads Estoril's midfield with 7 assists and high passing accuracy.
- The predicted total cards count is 4, suggesting a moderately physical game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estoril
Away — Benfica
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Rios
Bah
Assist: Araújo
Rafa
Assist: Prestianni
Costa
Yellow Card
Ferro
Costa
Bah
Yellow Card
André Lacximicant
Yellow Card
Pizzi
Guitane
Yellow Card
Prestianni
Rafa
Bah
Prestianni
Yellow Card
André Lacximicant
Xeka
Aursnes
Schjelderup
Peixinho
Assist: Boma
Match Statistics
Estoril
4-3-1-2Starting XI
- 1Joel RoblesG
- 2Ricard SánchezD
- 4FerroD
- 8XekaM
- 10Jordan William HolsgroveM
- 12João CarvalhoM
- 14Yanis Redha BegraouiF
- 19André LacximicantF
- 20Gonçalo CostaD
- 21PizziM
- 25Felix BacherD
Substitutes
- 7Nodar LominadzeM
- 9Alejandro MarquésF
- 24Pedro AmaralD
- 31Diogo DiasG
- 44Kévin BomaD
- 70PeixinhoF
- 91Jan MontesD
- 97Luís Maria Viegas Abreu Campos GomesM
- 99Rafik GuitaneM
Benfica
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Anatolii TrubinG
- 6Alexander Hartmann BahD
- 8Fredrik AursnesM
- 14Vangelis PavlidisF
- 20Richard Ríos MontoyaM
- 21Andreas Rædergård SchjelderupM
- 25Gianluca Prestianni GrossM
- 26Samuel Elias DahlD
- 27RafaM
- 30Nicolás Hernán Gonzalo OtamendiD
- 44Tomás AraújoD
Substitutes
- 4António SilvaD
- 7BrumaF
- 9Franjo IvanovićF
- 10Heorhii SudakovM
- 11Dodi Lukebakio NgandoliF
- 16ManuM
- 17Amar DedićD
- 18Leandro Barreiro MartinsM
- 24Samuel SoaresG
Estoril
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Robles | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Holsgrove | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| João Carvalho | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| Xeka | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Felix Bacher | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pizzi(C) | M | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| André Lacximicant | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Yanis Begraoui | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Ricard Sánchez | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| Ferro | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Costa | D | 45 | 5.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Diogo Dias | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Gomes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Marqués | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Montes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kévin Boma | D | 45 | 8.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Peixinho | F | 22 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Amaral | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Nodar Lominadze | M | 12 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Rafik Guitane | M | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
Benfica
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ríos | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | — | 1/1 |
| Andreas Schjelderup | M | 84 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Alexander Bah | D | 68 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Samuel Dahl | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Gianluca Prestianni | M | 68 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2/6 |
| Fredrik Aursnes | M | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Araújo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Anatoliy Trubin | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Otamendi(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafa Silva | M | 68 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | F | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Franjo Ivanović | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Soares | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| António Silva | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Georgiy Sudakov | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi Lukebakio | F | 22 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Amar Dedić | D | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bruma | F | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Manu Silva | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Leandro Barreiro | M | 22 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |