Estonia vs Luxembourg
Peetson's early strike secures Estonia win
A solitary goal in the fifth minute was enough for Estonia to edge Luxembourg in the Nations League.
Estonia claimed a narrow 1-0 victory over Luxembourg thanks to R. Peetson's early goal. The match settled quickly with that fifth-minute strike proving decisive as both sides failed to find the net thereafter. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
Estonia and Luxembourg face off in a League C match where both sides have shown competitive form. Estonia's recent draws and Luxembourg's mixed results set the stage for a closely contested game.
Match factors
Estonia's set-piece threat from defense
Maksim Paskotši and Rasmus Peetson combine goal and assist threat from defensive set-pieces.
Luxembourg's midfield scoring form
Vincent Thill and Leandro Barreiro each scored in recent away matches, boosting Luxembourg's attack.
Estonia's recent draws and scoring consistency
Estonia has scored in recent away matches but failed to win, indicating competitive but tight games.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so selection will be tactical rather than forced by absences.
The context
In this League C round 3 fixture, Estonia have drawn both their matches so far, scoring and conceding once. Luxembourg have one win and one loss, netting twice but conceding four. Both teams are looking to improve their standing in this tightly fought league phase.
Key insights
Maksim Paskotši
Estonia
Scored 1 goal in 1 game, above league average for defenders; key set-piece target for Estonia.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 90 mins played
Rasmus Peetson
Estonia
Provided 1 assist in 1 game; creative outlet from defence and effective at delivering set-piece assists.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 1 appearance, 90 mins played
Vincent Thill
Luxembourg
Scored 1 goal in 1 away match; strong attacking midfielder and key playmaker for Luxembourg.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 72 mins played
- L
Leandro Barreiro Martins
Luxembourg
Scored 1 goal and played full 90 mins; central to Luxembourg's midfield creativity and scoring form.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 90 mins played
Analysis
Estonia's strength lies in their defensive set-piece threat, with Maksim Paskotši and Rasmus Peetson combining for goal and assist contributions. Luxembourg's midfield, led by Vincent Thill and Leandro Barreiro Martins, has shown scoring ability but also defensive vulnerabilities. The match promises a tactical battle with Estonia's home advantage and set-piece efficiency potentially tipping the scales.
Key facts
- 1.Estonia have drawn both their League C matches, scoring 1 and conceding 1.
- 2.Luxembourg have 1 win and 1 loss in League C, scoring 2 and conceding 4.
- 3.Maksim Paskotši scored 1 goal in 1 appearance this season for Estonia.
- 4.Rasmus Peetson provided 1 assist in 1 appearance, contributing to Estonia's set-piece threat.
- 5.Vincent Thill scored 1 goal in 1 away match for Luxembourg, showing attacking promise.
- 6.Leandro Barreiro Martins scored 1 goal and played full 90 minutes in recent League C action.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team, so selections are tactical.
- 8.The predicted scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Estonia.
Prediction
The prediction favours a 2-1 home win for Estonia. While probabilities for home and away wins are nearly equal, the slight edge goes to Estonia due to their set-piece threat and consistent scoring. Expect a tight game with both teams finding the net but Estonia ultimately prevailing.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estonia
Away — Luxembourg
The verdict
With full squads available and no injury concerns, this match will be decided by tactical execution and key moments. Estonia's ability to capitalise on set-pieces and maintain defensive discipline should see them edge out Luxembourg in a competitive League C encounter.
Prediction generated 29 Sep 2026, 20:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Peetson
Mahmutović
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
de Pina Duarte dos Santos
Dardari
Männilaan
Natami
Yellow Card
Palumets
Thill
Kuusk
Yellow Card
Selimović
Yellow Card
Käit
Mets
Yellow Card
Bohnert
Mahmutović
Barreiro
Yellow Card
Džogović
Yellow Card
Olesen
Yellow Card
Poom
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Estonia
5-3-2Starting XI
- 2M. KuuskD
- 3M. PaskotšiD
- 4M. KäitM
- 6R. PeetsonD
- 10K. PalumetsM
- 12M. IgonenG
- 14P. KristalF
- 17M. MännilaanF
- 18K. MetsD
- 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 20M. PoomM
Substitutes
- 1K. HeinG
- 5E. TõugjasD
- 7R. SaarmaM
- 8M. SoometsM
- 9Karel MustmaaF
- 11M. AinsaluM
- 13J. SalisteD
- 15M. SkvortsovM
- 16J. TammD
- 21A. TammF
- 22K. VallnerG
- 23F. LiivakM
Luxembourg
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1A. MorisG
- 3E. MahmutovićD
- 4F. BohnertD
- 5V. SelimovićD
- 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
- 7Aiman DardariM
- 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
- 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
- 11V. ThillM
- 13D. CarlsonD
- 15Omar NatamiM
Substitutes
- 2E. DžogovićD
- 10T. RupilM
- 12T. Pereira CardosoG
- 14E. VeigaD
- 16L. BarreiroM
- 17H. KadamaniM
- 18S. IkeneD
- 19M. OlesenM
- 20M. GoncalvesM
- 21S. ThillM
- 22M. MartinsD
- 23T. KipsG
Estonia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Peetson | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| M. Paskotši | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| K. Mets | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Kuusk | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Poom | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | — |
| P. Kristal | F | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| M. Käit | M | 80 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Soomets | M | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Karel Mustmaa | F | 24 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ainsalu | M | 10 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Igonen | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Palumets | M | 72 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| M. Männilaan | F | 66 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Vallner | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Saliste | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Skvortsov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Liivak | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Tamm | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Tamm | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Saarma | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tõugjas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Hein | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Luxembourg
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Moris | G | 90 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Carlson | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| V. Thill | M | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| J. de Sousa Moreira Cruz | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Omar Natami | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| E. Mahmutović | D | 83 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. de Pina Duarte dos Santos | M | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| F. Bohnert | D | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| T. Rupil | M | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| V. Selimović | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aiman Dardari | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Jayson Videira Pereira | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Thill | M | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| H. Kadamani | M | 28 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| M. Olesen | M | 7 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Džogović | D | 7 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Martins | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Pereira Cardoso | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ikene | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Goncalves | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Kips | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Barreiro | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Veiga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estonia vs Luxembourg?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Estonia to win against Luxembourg.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estonia vs Luxembourg?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estonia 2–1 Luxembourg.
- What were the win probabilities for Estonia vs Luxembourg?
- Fipster's model gave Estonia a 35% chance of winning, Luxembourg a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.