Estonia vs Iceland
Match recap
Estonia and Iceland drew 0–0 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Estonia held 38% possession to 62% for Iceland.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
0-1 Iceland win
Actual
0–0
Outcome probability
Estonia and Iceland face off in a League C clash where both sides have shown resilience but Iceland's recent attacking prowess could tip the scales.
Match factors
Iceland's potent attack led by Óskarsson
Orri Óskarsson's 4 goals in last 4 matches give Iceland a clear attacking edge
Estonia's defender Peetson contributes offensively
Rasmus Peetson has 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games, above average for defenders
Iceland's strong recent form with high scoring
Iceland averages 2.3 goals per game recently, showing strong offensive momentum
No confirmed injuries affecting key players
Both teams have no confirmed outs, so full squads expected to influence match
The context
In this League C round 4 fixture, Estonia have remained unbeaten with one win and three draws, scoring twice and conceding once. Iceland have been slightly more clinical, winning two and drawing two of their four matches, netting seven goals while conceding just once. Their head-to-head meetings have ended in draws, setting the stage for a closely contested encounter.
Key insights
Orri Óskarsson
Iceland
Óskarsson's 4 goals in last 4 matches give Iceland a clear attacking edge.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 goals in last 4 games, 344 mins avg per game
Rasmus Peetson
Estonia
Peetson's 1 goal and 1 assist in 3 games is exceptional for a defender, boosting Estonia's set-piece threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal and 1 assist in 3 games, 270 mins total
Analysis
Iceland's attack, spearheaded by Orri Óskarsson who has scored four goals in his last four games, provides them with a clear edge. Estonia's Rasmus Peetson has contributed offensively with a goal and an assist, but Iceland's overall goal-scoring momentum and defensive solidity make them favourites. The predicted 1-0 scoreline aligns with Iceland's ability to break the deadlock early and maintain a slender lead.
Key facts
- 1.Estonia have played 4 matches in this competition (W1 D3 L0, GF 2 / GA 1)
- 2.Iceland have played 4 matches in this competition (W2 D2 L0, GF 7 / GA 1)
- 3.In 2 head-to-head meetings, Estonia have won 0, Iceland have won 0, with 2 draws
- 4.Orri Óskarsson has scored 4 goals in his last 4 games for Iceland
- 5.Rasmus Peetson has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist for Estonia in 3 games
- 6.The modal predicted scoreline is 0-1 in favour of Iceland
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4
Prediction
The forecast is for Iceland to secure a 1-0 victory, likely taking the lead by halftime and holding on through a disciplined defensive display. Expect a competitive match with around four cards issued, reflecting the intensity of this League C encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estonia
Away — Iceland
The verdict
While Estonia have shown grit and defensive organisation, Iceland's sharper attack and recent form suggest they will edge this one. A narrow away win seems the most plausible outcome in this evenly matched contest.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Grétarsson
Yellow Card
Palumets
Männilaan
Saliste
Sigurðsson
Magnússon
Kristal
Schjønning-Larsen
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Estonia
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2M. KuuskD
- 3M. PaskotšiD
- 5E. TõugjasD
- 6R. PeetsonM
- 7R. SaarmaF
- 10K. PalumetsM
- 12M. IgonenG
- 13J. SalisteM
- 14P. KristalM
- 17M. MännilaanF
- 20M. PoomM
Substitutes
- 1E. GrünvaldG
- 4M. KäitM
- 8M. SoometsM
- 9Karel MustmaaF
- 11M. AinsaluM
- 15M. SkvortsovM
- 16J. TammD
- 18T. TammikD
- 19M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 21A. TammF
- 22K. VallnerG
- 23F. LiivakM
Iceland
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 4V. PálssonD
- 7H. HaraldssonM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 10G. SigurðssonM
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 16S. ÞórðarsonD
- 18M. AndersonM
- 22A. GuðjohnsenM
- 23H. MagnússonD
Substitutes
- 1R. RúnarssonG
- 2L. TómassonD
- 5Í. ÞorvaldssonF
- 6A. BaldurssonM
- 11J. ÞorsteinssonF
- 13A. EinarssonG
- 14B. WillumssonF
- 15A. SampstedD
- 17A. GunnarssonM
- 19B. BjarnasonD
- 20Þ. HelgasonM
- 21A. SigurðssonM
Estonia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Tõugjas | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kuusk | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Käit | M | 29 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| M. Paskotši | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Peetson | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| P. Kristal | M | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| M. Igonen | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Palumets | M | 61 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| M. Männilaan | F | 61 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Karel Mustmaa | F | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| R. Saarma | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. Schjønning-Larsen | D | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Poom | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| J. Saliste | M | 61 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Skvortsov | M | 22 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| E. Grünvald | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ainsalu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Tammik | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Tamm | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Vallner | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Soomets | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Tamm | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Liivak | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Iceland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Valdimarsson | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Magnússon | D | 67 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| G. Sigurðsson | M | 67 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Þórðarson | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Willumsson | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| D. Grétarsson | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Anderson | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| V. Pálsson | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| L. Tómasson | D | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Haraldsson | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Guðjohnsen | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/3 |
| O. Óskarsson | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Þ. Helgason | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Baldursson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Í. Þorvaldsson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Þorsteinsson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gunnarsson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Rúnarsson | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sampsted | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sigurðsson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Einarsson | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Bjarnason | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estonia vs Iceland?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Iceland to win against Estonia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estonia vs Iceland?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estonia 0–1 Iceland.
- What were the win probabilities for Estonia vs Iceland?
- Fipster's model gave Estonia a 26% chance of winning, Iceland a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 47% confidence — a medium-confidence call.