Estac Troyes vs Marseille
Match recap
Marseille beat Estac Troyes 2–0 in their Ligue 1 fixture. Harit and Abdelli scored for Marseille. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.21 for Estac Troyes versus 0.44 for Marseille. Estac Troyes sit 17th in the Ligue 1 table while Marseille are 13th.
Outcome probability
Estac Troyes and Marseille face off in the sixth round of the Ligue 1 regular season. Both sides have had a mixed start to their campaigns, sitting near the lower end of the table. This match promises a competitive encounter as Troyes look to capitalise on their home advantage against Les Olympiens.
Match factors
Marseille's Amine Gouiri leads attacking threat
Gouiri's 4 goals in 4 games and strong home form give Marseille a key scoring edge
Troyes' defensive solidity challenged by Marseille's attack
Troyes concedes 3 goals per home game on average, vulnerable to Gouiri and co.
Antoine Mille's all-round form boosts Troyes midfield
Mille contributes goals, assists and tackles above league average, key for Troyes
Marseille missing key defender Kondogbia
Kondogbia's absence weakens Marseille's defense, increasing risk against Troyes attack
The context
Troyes currently occupy 16th place with 4 points from 5 games, while Marseille sit just below them in 17th with 3 points from 4 matches. Despite Marseille's superior goal difference, Troyes have shown resilience at home, making this a potentially tight contest. Both teams are eager to climb the table and improve their form.
Key insights
Amine Gouiri
Marseille
Gouiri's 4 goals in 4 games make him Marseille's key attacking threat, especially dangerous despite playing away.
Ligue 1 26/274 goals in 4 appearances, 0.8 goals/game last 5
- A
Antoine Mille
Estac Troyes
Mille's all-round contributions with goals, assists, and 3 tackles per game boost Troyes' midfield strength.
Ligue 1 26/271 goal, 1 assist, 3 tackles/game vs 1.48 league avg
Analysis
Marseille's attacking threat is spearheaded by Amine Gouiri, who has netted 4 goals in 4 games and poses a significant challenge for Troyes' defence. However, Troyes' midfield dynamo Antoine Mille has been influential, contributing both goals and assists while excelling defensively with an average of 3 tackles per game. Marseille's defence is weakened by the absence of key defender Kondogbia, which could be exploited by Troyes. The predicted total of 4 cards suggests a competitive and physical match.
Key facts
- 1.Estac Troyes are 16th in Ligue 1 with 4 points from 5 games (W1 D1 L3).
- 2.Marseille are 17th with 3 points from 4 games (W1 D0 L3).
- 3.Marseille have a better goal difference (+7) compared to Troyes this season.
- 4.Amine Gouiri has scored 4 goals in 4 games for Marseille.
- 5.Antoine Mille has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist with high defensive work rate for Troyes.
- 6.Marseille's key defender Kondogbia is absent, weakening their defence.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The forecast leans towards a home win for Troyes with a 2-1 scoreline. While Marseille's attack is potent, Troyes' home form and midfield strength are expected to make the difference. The halftime score is uncertain, but the fulltime result favours Troyes edging out Les Olympiens in a closely fought encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estac Troyes
Away — Marseille
The verdict
This fixture is set to be a tight affair with both teams eager to gain momentum. Troyes' ability to leverage their home advantage and Marseille's defensive vulnerabilities could be decisive. Fans should anticipate a spirited match with key moments from standout players like Gouiri and Mille shaping the outcome.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 20:45 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Maronnier
Yellow Card
Gomes
Yellow Card
Harit
Assist: Emerson
Karim
Yellow Card
Gomis
Gouiri
Harit
Diawara
Unknown
Le Douaron
Karim
Diop
Igor Paixão
Gomes
Mille
Yellow Card
Beach
Yellow Card
Abdelli
Penalty
Match Statistics
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 4M. DiazD
- 5P. GozziD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 7K. DiawaraM
- 8M. DiopM
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 11I. GomisM
- 17A. MilleM
- 29D. KarimM
- 33P. BeachG
Substitutes
- 10M. IfnaouiM
- 20R. RipartF
- 22H. PicardM
- 23T. NkadaF
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 37C. BatolaF
- 40H. KonatéG
Marseille
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4C. Egan-RileyD
- 7A. GomesM
- 8H. AbdelliM
- 9A. GouiriF
- 12J. de LangeG
- 14Igor PaixãoM
- 21N. AguerdD
- 33EmersonD
- 74K. BezahafD
- 77A. HaritM
Substitutes
- 6T. NnadiM
- 11N. MaupayF
- 18B. MeitéD
- 19G. KondogbiaM
- 25U. GarciaD
- 29F. MoumbagnaF
- 46E. MbondoD
- 48K. AbdallahF
- 92T. VermotG
Estac Troyes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Monfray | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Maronnier | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| A. Mille | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| P. Gozzi | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Diop | M | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Diaz | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ripart | F | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| H. Picard | M | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Nkada | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Karim | M | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| A. Phliponeau | M | 13 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Le Douaron | F | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Batola | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| K. Diawara | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| I. Gomis | M | 61 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Beach | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Donkor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Konaté | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ifnaoui | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Marseille
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Harit | M | 63 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Emerson | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| N. Aguerd | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Bezahaf | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| C. Egan-Riley | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. de Lange | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Abdelli | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Nnadi | M | 17 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Kondogbia | M | 3 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Paixão | M | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| N. Maupay | F | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Moumbagna | F | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Abdallah | F | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gouiri | F | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Gomes | M | 87 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Meité | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Mbondo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Garcia | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Vermot | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Estac Troyes to win against Marseille.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estac Troyes 2–1 Marseille.
- What were the win probabilities for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?
- Fipster's model gave Estac Troyes a 35% chance of winning, Marseille a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.