Estac Troyes vs Lens
Lens secure solid win at Troyes
A Monfray's own goal set the tone for Lens's 3-1 victory.
Lens took an early lead thanks to an own goal by A. Monfray in the 13th minute, but Troyes responded through T. Nkada at 26'. Lens then pulled ahead with goals from O. Édouard just before half-time and R. Aguilar after the break, sealing a confident 3-1 win. Fipster's prediction of an away win was on the money, albeit with low confidence and a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
Estac Troyes and Lens face off in the seventh round of Ligue 1, with both sides eager to climb the table. Troyes have had a rocky start, while Lens look to build on their slightly better form.
Match factors
Lens missing key players due to injury and suspension
Lens will miss Udol (red card suspension) and Sima (muscle injury), weakening midfield and attack.
Florian Thauvin's dual threat as scorer and assister
Thauvin leads Lens with 3 goals and 4 assists in 6 games, key to their predicted 2 goals.
Troyes defensive vulnerabilities likely exploited by Lens attack
Troyes concedes over 2 goals per game at home, Lens' attacking players have good scoring form.
Troyes struggling defensively with consecutive goals conceded
Troyes has conceded in last 5 matches, increasing chances for Lens scorers to find space.
The context
Troyes sit 16th with 4 points from 5 games, having won once, drawn once, and lost three times. Lens are a bit steadier in 10th place with 7 points from 6 games. Lens also boast a significantly better goal difference, reflecting their more potent attack and tighter defence so far.
Key insights
Florian Thauvin
Lens
Thauvin is Lens' top scorer and assist provider, crucial to their attacking threat with 3 goals and 4 assists in 6 games.
Ligue 1 26/273 goals and 4 assists in 6 appearances
- M
Matthieu Udol
Lens
Udol's suspension due to a red card weakens Lens' midfield stability and defensive presence.
Ligue 1 26/27Suspended due to red card
Antoine Mille
Estac Troyes
Mille contributes defensively and offensively with solid tackling and an assist, key for Troyes' midfield.
Ligue 1 26/271 assist and 20 tackles in 6 games
Analysis
Lens' attacking threat is led by Florian Thauvin, who has netted 3 goals and provided 4 assists in 6 appearances, making him a key figure in their offensive play. Troyes have conceded in their last five matches and allow over two goals per game at home, which Lens will look to exploit. However, Lens will be without Matthieu Udol due to suspension and Sima due to injury, which could impact their midfield stability. The prediction leans towards an away win, but the limited match history and moderate probabilities suggest this will be a closely contested encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Estac Troyes are 16th in Ligue 1 with 4 points from 5 games (W1 D1 L3).
- 2.Lens are 10th with 7 points from 6 games (W2 D1 L3).
- 3.Lens have a significantly better goal difference (+8) than Troyes this season.
- 4.Florian Thauvin leads Lens with 3 goals and 4 assists in 6 games.
- 5.Troyes have conceded in their last 5 matches.
- 6.Troyes concede over 2 goals per game at home.
- 7.Lens will miss Matthieu Udol due to suspension.
- 8.The most probable full-time scoreline is 2-1 to Lens.
Prediction
We expect Lens to edge this one 2-1, with Thauvin likely to be involved in the goals. Troyes will put up a fight but their defensive vulnerabilities may prove costly against Lens' sharper attack.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estac Troyes
Away — Lens
The verdict
This match promises some entertaining football with Lens just about having the upper hand. Troyes will need to tighten up at the back if they want to avoid a third defeat in six games.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 06:09 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Monfray (OG)
Nkada
Édouard
Assist: Thauvin
Aguilar
Assist: Thauvin
Todibo
Nkada
Gozzi
Thauvin
Titraoui
Édouard
Aguilar
Diaz
Yellow Card
Ripart
Yellow Card
Baidoo
Yellow Card
Diop
Maronnier
Haidara
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 4M. DiazD
- 5P. GozziD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 8M. DiopM
- 10M. IfnaouiM
- 17A. MilleM
- 20R. RipartF
- 23T. NkadaM
- 29D. KarimM
- 33P. BeachG
Substitutes
- 7K. DiawaraF
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 11I. GomisM
- 22H. PicardM
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 31Noah DonkorD
- 37C. BatolaF
- 40H. KonatéG
Lens
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 2R. AguilarM
- 5A. BulatovićM
- 7F. SotocaM
- 8Y. TitraouiM
- 10F. ThauvinM
- 11O. ÉdouardF
- 20J. TodiboD
- 22M. SkóraśM
- 25I. GaniouD
- 32K. AntonioD
- 40R. RisserG
Substitutes
- 6S. BaidooD
- 9T. HazardM
- 16M. GorgelinG
- 21A. HaidaraM
- 23Saud AbdulhamidD
- 27M. CuisanceM
- 28J. KadileF
- 29F. IvanovićF
- 38M. SoaresM
Estac Troyes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Nkada | M | 60 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Karim | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Le Douaron | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ifnaoui | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| A. Mille | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| P. Gozzi | D | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Diawara | F | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Diaz | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Maronnier | D | 79 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Diop | M | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ripart | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Noah Donkor | D | 26 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Gomis | M | 11 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Monfray | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Beach | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Batola | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Picard | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Phliponeau | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Konaté | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Lens
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Thauvin | M | 67 | 8.6 | — | 2 | — | — | 6 | 1/3 |
| R. Aguilar | M | 72 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| O. Édouard | F | 67 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Risser | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Antonio | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Todibo | D | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| I. Ganiou | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bulatović | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Haidara | M | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Skóraś | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Y. Titraoui | M | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Sotoca | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Saud Abdulhamid | D | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Soares | M | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Ivanović | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Baidoo | D | 30 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Hazard | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Cuisance | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Kadile | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gorgelin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estac Troyes vs Lens?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Lens to win against Estac Troyes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estac Troyes 1–2 Lens.
- What were the win probabilities for Estac Troyes vs Lens?
- Fipster's model gave Estac Troyes a 32% chance of winning, Lens a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.