Estac Troyes vs Le Mans
Match recap
Estac Troyes beat Le Mans 2–0 in their Ligue 1 fixture. Diop and Boura scored for Estac Troyes. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.79 for Estac Troyes versus 0.31 for Le Mans. Estac Troyes sit 16th in the Ligue 1 table while Le Mans are 17th.
Outcome probability
Estac Troyes and Le Mans face off in the ninth round of Ligue 2, with both sides eager to climb the table. Troyes have struggled for points, while Le Mans look to build on their slightly better form.
Match factors
Key attackers missing for Troyes
Troyes missing key attacker Y. Kone (out) reduces their scoring threat significantly
Le Mans stronger offensive form
Le Mans average 1.38 goals per game vs Troyes 0.63, indicating better scoring potential
Defensive solidity from Troyes' Monfray
Monfray's high passing accuracy and duel win rate provide Troyes stability against Le Mans attack
Le Mans' Mafouta in good scoring form
Mafouta's recent goals and high match ratings suggest he will be a key threat in attack
Mille's defensive work rate key for Troyes midfield
Mille's tackling rate well above league average helps Troyes disrupt Le Mans' play
The context
Le Mans currently sit 16th with 6 points from 7 games, showing a mixed bag of results with one win, three draws, and three losses. Troyes are just below them in 17th place, having collected 4 points from 7 matches, including five defeats. The goal difference also favours Le Mans by six goals, hinting at a more potent attack or sturdier defence.
Key insights
- L
L. Mafouta
Le Mans
Mafouta's recent goals and high match ratings make him a key attacking threat for Le Mans.
Ligue 1 26/27Scored 2 goals in recent matches with ratings between 6.3-7.9.
- A
A. Monfray
Estac Troyes
Monfray's high passing accuracy and duel win rate provide defensive stability for Troyes.
Ligue 1 26/27Passing accuracy 86-87%, duel win rate ~75%, consistent starter with 7 full matches.
- A
A. Mille
Estac Troyes
Mille's tackling rate well above league average helps Troyes disrupt Le Mans' play.
Ligue 1 26/27Averages ~3.3 tackles per game versus league average 1.4 for midfielders.
Analysis
Le Mans have the edge in offensive output, averaging 1.38 goals per game compared to Troyes' 0.63. Their forward, L. Mafouta, has been in fine form recently, netting multiple goals and earning strong match ratings. Troyes will rely on the defensive solidity of A. Monfray, whose passing accuracy and duel success rate stand out among defenders. Midfielder A. Mille's tackling prowess will be crucial to disrupt Le Mans' rhythm. However, Troyes are missing key attacker Y. Kone, which diminishes their scoring threat.
Key facts
- 1.Le Mans rank 16th with 6 points from 7 games (W1 D3 L3).
- 2.Estac Troyes rank 17th with 4 points from 7 games (W1 D1 L5).
- 3.Le Mans have a goal difference 6 goals better than Troyes this season.
- 4.Le Mans average 1.38 goals per game; Troyes average 0.63.
- 5.Troyes' key attacker Y. Kone is out, reducing their scoring threat.
- 6.L. Mafouta is Le Mans' top scorer with multiple recent goals.
- 7.A. Monfray boasts 86-87% passing accuracy and a 75% duel win rate.
- 8.A. Mille averages 3.3 tackles per game, well above league average.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an away win for Le Mans, with a halftime score of 0-1 and a fulltime result of 1-2. This suggests Le Mans will take an early lead and maintain their advantage despite Troyes' efforts to fight back. The match is expected to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but not overly aggressive encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Estac Troyes
Away — Le Mans
The verdict
In summary, Le Mans' superior goal difference and attacking form, combined with Troyes' injury setbacks, point to a narrow away victory. Troyes' defensive efforts will keep the scoreline respectable, but Le Mans should come away with the three points.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 18:12 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Diaz
Yellow Card
Diop
Assist: Nkada
Rabillard
Nkada
Diallo
Torrente
Yellow Card
Gozzi
Yellow Card
Lauray
Gozzi
Original decision changed
Kocik
Yellow Card
Boura
Yellow Card
Boura
Boissé
Yellow Card
Mafouta
Calodat
Ripart
Diop
Ifnaoui
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +11 | 20 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Estac Troyes
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 4M. DiazD
- 5P. GozziD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 8M. DiopM
- 10M. IfnaouiF
- 17A. MilleM
- 20R. RipartF
- 23T. NkadaF
- 29D. KarimM
- 40H. KonatéG
Substitutes
- 7K. DiawaraF
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 11I. GomisM
- 14I. BouraD
- 22H. PicardM
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 33P. BeachG
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 44Y. TitiD
Le Mans
3-1-4-2Starting XI
- 8A. LaurayM
- 9A. RabillardM
- 13H. DialloF
- 14L. MafoutaF
- 15N. BoisséD
- 16Raúl TorrenteD
- 17S. YohouD
- 18L. BuadésM
- 22L. CalodatM
- 29L. BretelleM
- 98N. KocikG
Substitutes
- 1E. HatfoutG
- 5H. VoyerD
- 7B. BrahimiF
- 10J. VercruysseM
- 20W. HarhouzF
- 23D. TraoréM
- 25D. GuèyeF
- 26R. BambaD
- 76Y. LarouciD
Estac Troyes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Diop | M | 79 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| A. Monfray | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Maronnier | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Boura | D | 24 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| I. Gomis | M | 11 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Nkada | F | 46 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Karim | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| A. Mille | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| M. Diaz | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Diawara | F | 44 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| H. Konaté | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Le Douaron | F | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Ifnaoui | F | 92 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| R. Ripart | F | 79 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| P. Gozzi | D | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| P. Beach | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Picard | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Phliponeau | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Titi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Soukouna | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Le Mans
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kocik | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Yohou | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Raúl Torrente | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Rabillard | M | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| B. Brahimi | F | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Buadés | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Mafouta | F | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bretelle | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| W. Harhouz | F | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Guèye | F | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Lauray | M | 60 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| H. Diallo | F | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Larouci | D | 16 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Vercruysse | M | 30 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Boissé | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Calodat | M | 74 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/7 |
| H. Voyer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Hatfout | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Bamba | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Traoré | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Le Mans to win against Estac Troyes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Estac Troyes 1–2 Le Mans.
- What were the win probabilities for Estac Troyes vs Le Mans?
- Fipster's model gave Estac Troyes a 24% chance of winning, Le Mans a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.