Spain vs England
England edge Spain in Nations League thriller
Kane's penalty and a strong second-half surge secure a narrow win for the visitors.
England claimed a hard-fought 3-2 victory over Spain in the UEFA Nations League, with Harry Kane opening the scoring from the penalty spot just before half-time. The visitors extended their lead early in the second half through goals from E. Konsa and B. White, but Spain fought back with a penalty from Mikel Oyarzabal and a goal from Nico Williams. Fipster's prediction of an away win was spot on, though the exact scoreline proved a bit more dramatic than forecast.
Outcome probability
This League A fixture between Spain and England promises a tantalising battle, with both sides boasting impressive attacking talents and a history of high-scoring encounters.
Match factors
England's midfield creativity vs Spain's defense
Jude Bellingham's high assist rate (4 assists in 4 games) and creative passing could exploit Spain's defensive vulnerabilities.
Harry Kane's prolific scoring form
Kane leads England with 6 goals in 4 games, showing strong finishing and consistency.
Lamine Yamal's strong home scoring streak
Yamal averages 1.5 goals per home game in recent matches, indicating strong attacking form at home.
Dani Olmo's playmaking role for Spain
Olmo's 3 assists in 4 games highlight his key role in creating chances for Spain's attackers.
England's strong away scoring record
England averages 4.5 goals scored per away game, indicating strong offensive performance on the road.
The context
Spain have been flawless in this competition so far, winning all five matches and scoring 14 goals while conceding 5. England have also impressed with four wins and one loss, netting 16 goals and conceding just 4. Their head-to-head meetings have been lively affairs, averaging four goals per game, with Spain winning three of the four encounters.
Key insights
Harry Kane
England
Kane’s prolific scoring with 6 goals in 4 games makes him England’s main threat away from home.
UEFA Nations League 26/276 goals in 4 appearances
Jude Bellingham
England
Bellingham’s 4 assists in 4 games highlight his creative influence in midfield, crucial for breaking down Spain’s defence.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 assists in 4 appearances
Lamine Yamal
Spain
Yamal’s strong home scoring streak with 4 goals in 4 games makes him a key player for Spain’s attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 goals in 4 appearances
Dani Olmo
Spain
Olmo’s 3 assists in 4 games underline his role as Spain’s chief playmaker, linking midfield and attack.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 assists in 4 appearances
Analysis
England's attacking prowess, led by Harry Kane's six goals in four games, is a significant threat, especially away from home where they average 4.5 goals per game. Jude Bellingham's creativity, with four assists, could exploit Spain's defensive vulnerabilities. Spain's Lamine Yamal has been prolific at home, scoring four goals in four appearances, supported by Dani Olmo's playmaking with three assists. The predicted halftime score of 0-1 suggests England will start strong, but Spain's home form means they will push back in the second half.
Key facts
- 1.Spain have won all 5 matches in this competition, scoring 14 and conceding 5.
- 2.England have won 4 of 5 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 4 in this competition.
- 3.In 4 head-to-head matches, Spain have won 3 and England 1, with no draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 4 goals per game, indicating open play.
- 5.Harry Kane leads England with 6 goals in 4 games, showing strong form.
- 6.Jude Bellingham has provided 4 assists in 4 games, key to England's creativity.
- 7.Lamine Yamal averages 1 goal per home game for Spain, a significant threat.
Prediction
We expect England to take an early lead and maintain their advantage to secure a 2-1 victory. The predicted scoreline aligns with the statistical probabilities, making an away win the most likely outcome in this high-stakes League A match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Spain
Away — England
The verdict
This encounter should provide plenty of excitement, with England's clinical finishing and midfield creativity likely to edge out Spain's home advantage. Expect a tight contest with goals at both ends, culminating in a narrow England win.
Prediction generated 12 Nov 2026, 21:44 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Rice
Yellow Card
Pubill
Ruiz
Merino
Cubarsí Paredes
Kane
Penalty
Cucurella
Yellow Card
Konsa
Assist: Rice
White
Assist: Bellingham
Yamal
Yellow Card
Anderson
Red Card
Oyarzabal
Penalty
Spence
Yellow Card
Álex Baena
Yellow Card
Zubimendi
Nico Williams
Assist: Yamal
Kane
Bellingham
Gordon
White
Match Statistics
Spain
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Marc PubillD
- 5Pau Cubarsí ParedesD
- 6Mikel MerinoM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 10Lamine YamalM
- 14Aymeric LaporteD
- 15Álex BaenaM
- 18Martín ZubimendiM
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF
- 22Marc CucurellaD
- 23Unai SimónG
Substitutes
- 1David RayaG
- 3Marc RocaM
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 7Ferran TorresF
- 9FermínM
- 11Yeremy PinoM
- 12Pedro PorroD
- 13Joan GarcíaG
- 16Pablo BarriosM
- 17Nico WilliamsF
- 19Víctor MuñozF
- 20PedriM
England
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3L. HallD
- 4D. RiceM
- 5E. KonsaD
- 6J. QuansahD
- 8E. AndersonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 11A. GordonM
- 12B. WhiteD
- 13J. TraffordG
- 17M. RogersM
Substitutes
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 7M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14D. SpenceD
- 15D. BurnD
- 16J. BellinghamM
- 18J. HillD
- 19D. Calvert-LewinF
- 20R. NgumohaF
- 21E. EzeM
- 22M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 23J. SteeleG
Spain
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Williams | F | 18 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 1/4 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 90 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Pedri | M | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | — |
| Fermín | M | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Martín Zubimendi | M | 72 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Marc Pubill | D | 20 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Porro | D | 70 | 5.8 | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeremy Pino | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Barrios | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Víctor Muñoz | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marc Roca | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Raya | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joan García | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
England
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Bellingham | M | 83 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5/5 |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| D. Rice | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| L. Hall | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 5/6 |
| H. Kane | F | 78 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| B. White | D | 89 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Trafford | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 7 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Quansah | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | D | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Anderson | M | 63 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Gordon | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. Burn | D | 1 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rogers | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| D. Spence | D | 7 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ngumoha | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Pickford | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Steele | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hill | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Spain vs England?
- Fipster's AI model predicted England to win against Spain.
- What score did Fipster predict for Spain vs England?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Spain 1–2 England.
- What were the win probabilities for Spain vs England?
- Fipster's model gave Spain a 16% chance of winning, England a 67% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 67% confidence — a high-confidence call.