Croatia vs England
Match recap
England beat Croatia 7–0 in their UEFA Nations League fixture. Kane, Bellingham, Gordon, Saka, Kane, Saka, and Rogers scored for England. Croatia held 36% possession to 64% for England.
Outcome probability
Croatia and England face off in a League A match that promises a tactical battle with plenty at stake. Both teams have shown mixed form in this competition, setting the stage for a closely contested encounter.
Match factors
Modrić's midfield creativity vs England's defense
Modrić's high passing and goal threat could unlock England's defense, giving Croatia a tactical edge
Kane's scoring form boosts England's attack
Kane has scored 3 goals in last 5 games, providing England with a reliable goal threat
Perišić's assist streak supports Croatia's offense
Perišić has 2 assists in last 5 games, showing strong recent form as a key playmaker
No confirmed absences maintain team strength
Both teams have no confirmed injuries, so full squads likely enhance tactical options
The context
In this League A phase, Croatia have played two matches with one win and one loss, scoring three goals and conceding five. England share a similar record with one win and one loss, netting four and conceding three. Their head-to-head history favours England with three wins to Croatia's none, but recent form suggests a tighter contest this time.
Key insights
Luka Modrić
Croatia
Modrić's creativity and goal threat could unlock England's defence, giving Croatia a tactical edge.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance this season with strong recent form
Harry Kane
England
Kane's consistent scoring form provides England with a reliable goal threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/273 goals in last 5 games, 1 goal in 1 appearance this season
Ivan Perišić
Croatia
Perišić's assist streak supports Croatia's offence as a key wide provider.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 assists in last 5 games, 1 assist this season
Analysis
The match is expected to start cautiously, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline the most likely scenario. Croatia's midfield maestro Luka Modrić, with his high passing volume and goal threat, could unlock England's defence. Meanwhile, England's Harry Kane remains a consistent goal threat, having scored three goals in his last five games. Ivan Perišić's assist streak adds further firepower for Croatia, making the home side a slight favourite despite England's historical edge. Discipline could play a role, with an expected four cards in total.
Key facts
- 1.Croatia have played 2 matches in this competition (W1 D0 L1, GF 3 / GA 5).
- 2.England have played 2 matches in this competition (W1 D0 L1, GF 4 / GA 3).
- 3.In 5 head-to-head meetings, England have won 3, Croatia 0, with 2 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.4 total goals (4 for Croatia, 8 for England).
- 5.Most likely halftime score is 0-0, supporting a tight first half.
- 6.Predicted total cards in the match is 4.
- 7.Luka Modrić has scored 1 goal in 1 appearance this season, showing strong form.
- 8.Harry Kane has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games, a key threat for England.
Prediction
We predict a narrow 2-1 victory for Croatia, with goals coming in the second half after a tight opening period. Modrić and Pasalic are tipped to make decisive contributions, while England will rely on Kane to keep them in the hunt. The match should be competitive, but Croatia's tactical edge and home advantage are likely to see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Croatia
Away — England
The verdict
This League A fixture promises a thrilling encounter with fine margins. Expect a disciplined, tactical game that breaks open late, with Croatia just about prevailing over England in a 2-1 scoreline.
Prediction generated 29 Sep 2026, 20:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Kane
Assist: Bellingham
Bellingham
Assist: Gordon
Gordon
Assist: Quansah
Sučić
Baturina
Saka
Assist: Bellingham
Musa
Kane
Assist: Anderson
Modrić
Saka
Assist: Kane
Kovačić
Yellow Card
Gordon
Kane
Scott
Stanišić
Anderson
Hall
Rogers
Assist: Bellingham
Match Statistics
Croatia
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1D. LivakovićG
- 2J. StanišićD
- 4J. GvardiolD
- 5L. VuškovićD
- 7F. IvanovićM
- 8M. KovačićM
- 10L. ModrićM
- 11P. MusaF
- 14I. PerišićD
- 16M. BaturinaM
- 17P. SučićM
Substitutes
- 3I. SmolčićD
- 6J. ŠutaloD
- 9A. KramarićF
- 12I. PandurG
- 13N. VlašićM
- 15Mario PasalicM
- 18K. JakićM
- 19Marco PasalicF
- 20I. MatanovićF
- 21L. SučićM
- 22J. MišićM
- 23D. KotarskiG
England
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. PickfordG
- 3L. HallD
- 4A. ScottM
- 5E. KonsaD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 7B. SakaM
- 8E. AndersonM
- 9H. KaneF
- 10J. BellinghamM
- 11A. GordonM
- 22J. QuansahD
Substitutes
- 2T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 12T. ChalobahD
- 13J. TraffordG
- 14R. NgumohaF
- 15J. BranthwaiteD
- 16M. Lewis-SkellyD
- 17M. RogersM
- 18J. GarnerM
- 19D. Calvert-LewinF
- 20M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 21E. EzeM
- 23J. SteeleG
Croatia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Musa | F | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| N. Vlašić | M | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| M. Kovačić | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| I. Perišić | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 44 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Vušković | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 76 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Baturina | M | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| F. Ivanović | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/5 |
| D. Livaković | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Šutalo | D | 14 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Jakić | M | 33 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Marco Pasalic | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Pandur | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Smolčić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Sučić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mišić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kramarić | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Kotarski | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
England
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Kane | F | 70 | 9.8 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 90 | 9.3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4/6 |
| B. Saka | M | 90 | 9.1 | 2 | — | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Gordon | M | 70 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3/4 |
| M. Rogers | M | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| L. Hall | D | 79 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4/4 |
| J. Quansah | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Anderson | M | 79 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| E. Konsa | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Guéhi | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Scott | M | 70 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Pickford | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Lewis-Skelly | D | 11 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Eze | M | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Garner | M | 20 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 11 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Branthwaite | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Chalobah | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Trafford | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Calvert-Lewin | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ngumoha | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Steele | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Croatia vs England?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Croatia to win against England.
- What score did Fipster predict for Croatia vs England?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Croatia 2–1 England.
- What were the win probabilities for Croatia vs England?
- Fipster's model gave Croatia a 54% chance of winning, England a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 54% confidence — a medium-confidence call.