Elche vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid edge Elche in tight contest
A late goal from Carlos Espí secures a narrow victory for the visitors.
Real Madrid managed a 3-2 win over Elche in a closely fought La Liga match. An own goal by M. Dituro and a strike from Kylian Mbappé gave Madrid an early lead, but Elche fought back with goals from A. Osorio and Fer Niño. Carlos Espí's goal just after the 90th minute sealed the win for Real Madrid. Fipster's prediction of an away win was on the money, albeit with low confidence and a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
Elche face a tough challenge against Real Madrid, who have been in fine scoring form this season. Both teams have shown glimpses of attacking promise, but the visitors hold the upper hand on paper.
Match factors
Mbappé's clinical finishing vs Elche's leaky defense
Mbappé's 4 goals in 4 games and high shot volume exploit Elche's poor defensive record conceding 13 goals in 5 matches
Real Madrid's superior attacking output
Real Madrid averages 2.8 goals per game vs Elche's 1.3, indicating offensive dominance
Elche's recent scoring streak despite poor form
Elche has scored in 3 consecutive away matches, showing some attacking resilience despite losses
Elche missing key attacker Yago Alonso
Alonso's absence reduces Elche's attacking options, increasing reliance on Fer Niño
Víctor Chust's passing and defensive solidity
Chust's 92% passing accuracy and 68% duel win rate provide stability and attacking support from defense
The context
Elche sit 19th in the league with just 2 points from 5 games, struggling to find consistent form. Real Madrid, meanwhile, are 4th with 9 points from 4 games, boasting a significantly better goal difference and points-per-game ratio. This sets the stage for a clash between a side fighting to climb out of the relegation zone and a team pushing for top honours.
Key insights
Kylian Mbappé
Real Madrid
Mbappé’s clinical finishing exploits Elche’s porous defence, making him a key threat.
La Liga 26/274 goals in 4 appearances, 1.0 avg per game
Fer Niño
Elche
Niño leads Elche’s attack but faces a tough task against Real Madrid’s defence.
La Liga 26/272 goals in 4 appearances, 0.5 avg per game
- V
Víctor Chust
Real Madrid
Chust’s passing accuracy and duel wins provide defensive stability and attacking support.
La Liga 26/2792% passing accuracy, 68% duel win rate
Jude Bellingham
Real Madrid
Bellingham’s goals and assists make him integral to Real Madrid’s midfield control.
La Liga 26/272 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances
Analysis
Real Madrid's attacking prowess is led by Kylian Mbappé, who has netted 4 goals in 4 appearances, making him a constant threat. Elche's defence has been leaky, conceding 13 goals in 5 matches, which bodes well for Los Blancos' forwards. Elche's Fer Niño has chipped in with 2 goals, but the absence of key attacker Yago Alonso weakens their options. Víctor Chust's defensive solidity and passing accuracy provide Real Madrid with stability at the back, while Jude Bellingham's contributions in midfield add to their control and creativity.
Key facts
- 1.Elche are 19th with 2 points from 5 games (W0 D2 L3).
- 2.Real Madrid are 4th with 9 points from 4 games (W3 D0 L1).
- 3.Real Madrid have a goal difference of +14, significantly better than Elche.
- 4.Kylian Mbappé has scored 4 goals in 4 games this season.
- 5.Elche have conceded 13 goals in 5 matches, highlighting defensive issues.
- 6.Fer Niño is Elche's top scorer with 2 goals in 4 games.
- 7.Víctor Chust boasts a 92% passing accuracy and 68% duel win rate.
- 8.Yago Alonso is out, reducing Elche's attacking options.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid. While Elche are expected to score, their defensive vulnerabilities and Real Madrid's clinical finishing, especially from Mbappé, should see the visitors edge this encounter. The match is likely to be competitive, but the quality and form of Los Merengues should prevail.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Elche
Away — Real Madrid
The verdict
Expect a spirited performance from Elche, but Real Madrid's superior attacking firepower and overall form should secure them the three points. A 2-1 scoreline reflects a close contest with moments of quality from both sides.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Diomande
Yellow Card
Dituro (OG)
Aguado
Yellow Card
Mbappé
Assist: Diomande
Valera
Aguado
Buba Sangaré
Vinícius Júnior
Güler
Neto
Osorio
Assist: Cepeda
Konaté
Yellow Card
Cepeda
Yellow Card
Tete Morente
Fer Niño
Assist: Josan
Tchouaméni
Alexander-Arnold
Espí
Assist: Mbappé
Diomande
Josan
Yellow Card
Villar
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Elche
4-5-1Starting XI
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 20Tete MorenteM
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 24A. OsorioF
Substitutes
- 6BigasD
- 9E. PonceF
- 10F. BuonanotteM
- 13Alejandro IturbeG
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 17JosanM
- 18T. LemarM
- 19G. DianganaF
- 21L. CepedaF
- 22Rubén SánchezD
- 26Matia Barzic GutiérrezD
- 47J. MorcilloM
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 7Vinícius JúniorM
- 8F. ValverdeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
- 12T. Alexander-ArnoldD
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 16I. KonatéD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 25Y. DiomandeM
Substitutes
- 2Raúl AsencioD
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 9EndrickF
- 13A. LuninG
- 18Álvaro FernándezD
- 19Carlos EspíF
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 21Brahim DíazM
- 22A. RüdigerD
- 24D. DumfriesD
- 27Thiago PitarchM
Elche
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fer Niño | F | 22 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Osorio | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Villar | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Lemar | M | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| L. Cepeda | F | 32 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Redondo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Víctor Chust | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martim Neto | M | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Tete Morente | M | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Marc Aguado | M | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Revivo | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Buba Sangaré | D | 68 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Dituro | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén Sánchez | D | 22 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Germán Valera | M | 58 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Josan | M | 10 | 5.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Morcillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Ponce | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Diangana | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bigas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Buonanotte | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Iturbe | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matia Barzic Gutiérrez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Real Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.8 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0/3 |
| Carlos Espí | F | 3 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 87 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Y. Diomande | M | 92 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 7/9 |
| A. Güler | M | 68 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 0/3 |
| D. Huijsen | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Valverde | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Endrick | F | 4 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| I. Konaté | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | M | 68 | 6.4 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Bellingham | M | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 22 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| T. Courtois | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Lunin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Asencio | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Dumfries | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Real Madrid to win against Elche.
- What score did Fipster predict for Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Elche 1–2 Real Madrid.
- What were the win probabilities for Elche vs Real Madrid?
- Fipster's model gave Elche a 32% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.