Elche vs Atletico Madrid
Match recap
Elche beat Atletico Madrid 3–2 in their La Liga fixture. Affengruber, André Silva, and André Silva scored for Elche; González and González replied for Atletico Madrid. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.67 for Elche versus 1.01 for Atletico Madrid. Elche sit 15th in the La Liga table while Atletico Madrid are 4th.
Analysis
As the La Liga season nears its climax, Elche host Atletico Madrid in what promises to be a tightly contested encounter. Atletico, sitting comfortably in fourth, face a resilient Elche side fighting to climb out of the relegation zone.
Elche currently occupy 18th place with 32 points, struggling to find consistency, while Atletico Madrid boast 57 points and a healthy +19 goal difference. The visitors have the upper hand statistically and in form, making them favourites despite the challenge of an away fixture.
Atletico's attacking duo, Sørloth and Álvarez, have been reliable goal scorers this season, with Sørloth netting 10 goals and Álvarez contributing 8. Elche's Rafa Mir, their top scorer with 8 goals, has shown strong home form, but Atletico's defensive solidity, led by Víctor Chust, is likely to keep him in check. Creative midfielders like Aleix Febas and Martim Neto for Elche will test Atletico's defence, but the visitors' superior points per game and goal difference suggest they will edge the contest.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Atletico Madrid, with the halftime scoreline likely to be 0-1. The match is expected to be competitive, with a total of around four cards issued, reflecting the intensity of the battle. Atletico's away form and attacking prowess should see them through.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Elche's creative midfield vs Atletico's defense
Elche's Aleix Febas and Martim Neto excel in passing and creativity, challenging Atletico's defensive line.
Atletico's superior goal-scoring forwards
Sørloth and Álvarez have higher goal rates than Elche's attackers, favoring Atletico's scoring chances.
Rafa Mir's consistent scoring form
Mir's recent goals and home scoring streak boost Elche's chance to score despite underdog status.
Defensive solidity of Affengruber and Chust
Both teams rely on key defenders with above-average tackling and interceptions to control the match.
No significant injuries reported
Both teams have full squads available, so no major impact from missing players expected.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Atletico Madrid's quality and consistency should earn them a narrow win at Elche. While the hosts will fight hard, the visitors' superior stats and key player performances make them the favourites to take all three points.
- Atletico Madrid sit 4th with 57 points; Elche are 18th with 32 points.
- Atletico have a +19 goal difference; Elche have -8.
- Atletico average 1.84 points per game; Elche average 1.03.
- Rafa Mir leads Elche with 8 goals, strong home scorer.
- Sørloth is Atletico's top scorer with 10 goals.
- Aleix Febas has 89% pass accuracy and is key for Elche's creativity.
- Martim Neto leads Elche with 5 assists this season.
- Germán Valera offers pace and creativity for Elche's attack.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Elche
Away — Atletico Madrid
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
González
Assist: Mendoza
Affengruber
Assist: Tete Morente
Almada
Red Card
André Silva
Penalty
González
Assist: Robin Le Normand
Lenglet
Yellow Card
Julio Díaz del Romo
Yellow Card
Buba Sangaré
Yellow Card
Febas
Yellow Card
Robin Le Normand
Julio Díaz del Romo
Buba Sangaré
Vargas
Mendoza
Álex Baena
Rafa Mir
Tete Morente
Neto
André Silva
Assist: Affengruber
Pétrot
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | +11 | 60 |
| 14 |  Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 |  Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | -8 | 43 |
| 16 |  Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -14 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Elche
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1M. DituroG
- 9André SilvaF
- 10Rafa MirF
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 15Tete MorenteM
- 16Martim NetoM
- 21L. PétrotD
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 42Buba SangaréD
Substitutes
- 3Adrià PedrosaD
- 5F. RedondoM
- 6BigasD
- 7Yago AlonsoF
- 13Iñaki PeñaG
- 17JosanM
- 18John NwankwoD
- 20Á. RodríguezF
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 24L. CepedaF
- 39Héctor FortD
- 45Alejandro IturbeG
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 5J. CardosoM
- 10Álex BaenaF
- 11T. AlmadaF
- 13J. OblakG
- 15C. LengletD
- 21O. VargasM
- 23N. GonzálezM
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 32Javier BoñarD
- 34Julio Díaz del RomoD
Substitutes
- 1J. MussoG
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 8Pablo BarriosM
- 16N. MolinaD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 20G. SimeoneF
- 29Rayane BelidF
- 30Dani MartÃnezD
- 37I. LuqueF
- 40A. PuricD
- 47J. MorcilloM
Elche
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Affengruber | D | 94 | 9.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Andre Silva | F | 94 | 7.7 | 2 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Aleix Febas | M | 94 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Léo Pétrot | D | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Germán Valera | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| Gonzalo Villar | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Martim Neto | M | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Buba Sangare | D | 60 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matías Dituro(C) | G | 94 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tete Morente | M | 67 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| Rafa Mir | F | 67 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Iñaki Peña | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Redondo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yago Santiago | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Donald | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrià Pedrosa | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hector Fort | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Iturbe | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josan | M | 27 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Cepeda | F | 27 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Víctor Chust | D | 34 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Rodriguez | F | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro Bigas | D | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás González | M | 94 | 9.2 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| Obed Vargas | M | 62 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Julio Díaz | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johnny Cardoso | M | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Boñar | D | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Alejandro Baena | F | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Clément Lenglet | D | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Oblak(C) | G | 94 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | M | 62 | 5.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Thiago Almada | F | 30 | 4.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Dani Martinez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksa Purić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Belaid | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javi Morcillo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iker Luque | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Musso | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antoine Griezmann | F | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Marc Pubill | D | 49 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Barrios | M | 32 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Giuliano Simeone | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Molina | D | 49 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |