Elche vs Alaves
Match recap
Elche and Alaves drew 1–1 in their La Liga fixture. Rodríguez scored for Elche; Toni Martínez replied for Alaves. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.46 for Elche versus 2.14 for Alaves. Elche sit 15th in the La Liga table while Alaves are 14th.
Analysis
As the La Liga season nears its climax, Elche host Alaves in a match that promises a tight contest. Both teams are fighting to climb the table, but Elche's home advantage and better goal difference give them the edge.
Elche sit 14th with 38 points, just above Alaves who are 17th with 36 points. The stakes are high as both sides look to avoid the relegation scrap. Elche's recent home form has been encouraging, scoring in their last four home games despite key injuries.
Elche's attacking threat is somewhat hampered by injuries to top scorers André Silva and Rafa Mir, but their positive scoring streak at home keeps hopes alive. Alaves rely heavily on Toni Martínez, their top scorer with 11 goals and good recent form. Midfield creativity from Carles Aleñá offers Alaves some spark, but Elche's defensive stalwart David Affengruber could prove pivotal in containing threats.
Prediction
The forecast is a 2-1 home win for Elche, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The prediction carries a 70% confidence, supported by Elche's better goal difference and home advantage. Expect a competitive match with around four cards issued, reflecting the intensity of the battle.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Alaves' Toni Martínez vs Elche's weakened defense
Toni Martínez's scoring form and minutes played give Alaves a key attacking edge against Elche's injury-hit defense.
Elche's key attackers injured
Elche missing top scorers André Silva, Rafa Mir, and Á. Rodríguez reduces their goal threat significantly.
Alaves' midfield creativity despite injuries
Carles Aleñá leads assists and passing accuracy, providing creative edge even with some injuries.
Elche's positive scoring streak at home
Elche has scored in last 4 home games, showing attacking momentum despite injuries.
Defensive stalwarts' influence
David Affengruber's defensive and passing stats stand out, potentially stabilizing Elche's backline.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Elche's home advantage and statistical edge should see them edge out Alaves in a closely fought encounter. While injuries dampen their firepower, their resilience and recent form at home make them favourites to take all three points.
- Elche are 14th with 38 points from 34 games (W9 D11 L14).
- Alaves are 17th with 36 points from 34 games (W9 D9 L16).
- Elche have a superior goal difference of +5 compared to Alaves.
- Elche have scored in their last four home matches.
- Toni Martínez is Alaves' top scorer with 11 goals this season.
- Carles Aleñá leads Alaves in assists with 4 this season.
- Elche's André Silva, their top scorer, is currently injured.
- David Affengruber is a key defensive player for Elche with strong recent performances.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Elche
Away — Alaves
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ibáñez
Yellow Card
Blanco
Yellow Card
Jonny
Yellow Card
Ibáñez
Febas
Yellow Card
Toni Martínez
Penalty
Tete Morente
Toni Martínez
Febas
Diabate
Yellow Card
Rodríguez
Assist: Josan
Sivera
Yellow Card
Diabate
Guridi
Aguado
Chust
Diangana
Yellow Card
Rebbach
Yellow Card
Valera
John Nwankwo
Yellow Card
Rebbach
Match Statistics
Elche
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1M. DituroG
- 6BigasD
- 8Marc AguadoM
- 9André SilvaF
- 11Germán ValeraM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 15Tete MorenteM
- 20Á. RodríguezF
- 22D. AffengruberD
- 23Víctor ChustD
Substitutes
- 3Adrià PedrosaD
- 5F. RedondoM
- 13Iñaki PeñaG
- 16Martim NetoM
- 17JosanM
- 18John NwankwoD
- 19G. DianganaF
- 21L. PétrotD
- 24L. CepedaF
- 39Héctor FortD
- 42Buba SangaréD
Alaves
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 7Angel PérezD
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 17JonnyD
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 21A. RebbachD
- 22I. DiabateF
- 24Víctor ParadaD
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 5Jon PachecoD
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 13Raúl FernándezG
- 16V. KoskiD
- 20CalebeM
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 27E. Munoz
- 31G. SwiderskiG
- 34A. Manas
Elche
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Affengruber | D | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Matías Dituro | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Rodriguez | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Germán Valera | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Víctor Chust | D | 85 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Marc Aguado | M | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gonzalo Villar | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Aleix Febas | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro Bigas(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tete Morente | M | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| André Silva | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Léo Pétrot | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iñaki Peña | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrià Pedrosa | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martim Neto | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Redondo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Cepeda | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josan | M | 23 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| John Donald | D | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Buba Sangare | D | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hector Fort | D | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Grady Diangana | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sivera | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 67 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ángel Pérez | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 4/7 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jon Guridi | M | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Victor Parada | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jonny Otto | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Antonio Blanco(C) | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | D | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 82 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Raúl Fernández | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ville Koski | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Pacheco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calebe Gonçalves | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Grégoire Swiderski | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Egoitz Muñoz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Díaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Benavídez | M | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Youssef Enriquez | D | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Ander Guevara | M | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Denis Suárez | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |