Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

UEFA Europa League1st Qualifying Round
Ref: Jasmin Sabotic, LuxembourgThe Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry (Londonderry) · 7,000 cap
Fipster Pick
Away WinlowHit
Qualifying — two-legged tieLeg 2 of 2Decisive leg
First leg:
CSKA Sofia 3 2 Derry City
Aggregate:
Derry City 3 5 CSKA Sofia
Advances:
CSKA Sofia

Match recap

CSKA Sofia beat Derry City 2–1 in their UEFA Europa League fixture.

Fipster’s pre-match call

Predicted

0-1 CSKA Sofia win

Actual

1–2

✓ Called it

Outcome probability

Derry City 32%Draw 33%CSKA Sofia 35%

The 1st Qualifying Round fixture between Derry City and CSKA Sofia promises a tight contest, with both sides eager to make their mark early in the competition. While Derry City have shown some scoring ability, their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by the visitors' well-coordinated attack.

Match factors

Tactical Advantagehigh

CSKA Sofia's attacking duo synergy

I. Pittas and S. Sensi form a strong scorer-assister partnership, boosting CSKA's goal threat

Statistical Edgemedium

CSKA Sofia's better defensive form

CSKA concedes fewer goals on average and has a 50% clean sheet rate, aiding predicted away win

Form Momentummedium

Derry City's recent scoring but defensive struggles

Derry City scores regularly but concedes heavily, indicating defensive vulnerability

Injury Impacthigh

No confirmed injuries for either side

Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors dominate outcome

The context

Derry City have struggled in this competition so far, losing both of their two matches and conceding five goals while scoring three. In contrast, CSKA Sofia come into this tie with a more positive record, having played six matches with three wins, two draws, and just one loss, scoring nine and conceding six. Historically, CSKA Sofia have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning both encounters against Derry City.

Key insights

  • I

    I. Pittas

    CSKA Sofia

    Top scorer for CSKA Sofia with multiple goals, including 3 against Derry City in last two matches, making him a key attacking threat.

    UEFA Europa League 26/273 goals in last two matches vs Derry City

  • S

    S. Sensi

    CSKA Sofia

    Creative midfielder with strong assist record, key provider for Pittas and linking midfield to attack effectively.

    UEFA Europa League 26/27Above average passing and assist metrics in this competition

  • D

    D. Evtimov

    CSKA Sofia

    Goalkeeper with good clean sheet percentage, crucial in maintaining narrow leads against Derry City.

    UEFA Europa League 26/2750% clean sheet rate in this competition

  • B

    B. Cotter

    Derry City

    Defensive midfielder involved in own goal recently, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

    UEFA Europa League 26/27Involved in own goal conceded recently

Analysis

CSKA Sofia's attacking threat is spearheaded by I. Pittas, who has been the top scorer in recent fixtures and has netted three goals in the last two matches against Derry City. His partnership with midfielder S. Sensi, a creative force with a strong assist record, provides a tactical edge. Defensively, CSKA's goalkeeper D. Evtimov has maintained a solid record with a good clean sheet percentage, crucial for preserving narrow leads. Meanwhile, Derry City have shown offensive promise through E. Chapman but continue to struggle defensively, as evidenced by their recent results and conceding an own goal involving B. Cotter.

Key facts

  1. 1.Derry City have lost both matches played in this competition, conceding 5 goals and scoring 3.
  2. 2.CSKA Sofia have a stronger record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in 6 matches in this competition.
  3. 3.CSKA Sofia have won both previous head-to-head matches against Derry City.
  4. 4.I. Pittas has scored 3 goals in the last two matches against Derry City, making him a key threat.
  5. 5.S. Sensi is a creative midfielder with a strong assist record, often linking play to Pittas.
  6. 6.CSKA Sofia goalkeeper D. Evtimov has a good clean sheet percentage, aiding defensive solidity.
  7. 7.Derry City midfielder B. Cotter was involved in an own goal recently, highlighting defensive issues.
  8. 8.No confirmed injuries for either side, so full squads are expected.

Prediction

The prediction leans towards a narrow away win for CSKA Sofia, with a 1-0 scoreline reflecting their ability to edge out Derry City by exploiting defensive lapses while maintaining a tight defence themselves. Despite the low confidence in this call due to limited match history and missing standings data, the statistical probabilities favour the visitors to take the win.

Player Insights

Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists

Home — Derry City

No standout risk players flagged for Derry City

Away — CSKA Sofia

Bruno Jordão

Bruno Jordão

Midfielder

CSKA Sofia

Discipline (Y+R*3)
4
7 played
7 starts
111 mins
~16 mins/game
S. Sensi

S. Sensi

Midfielder

CSKA Sofia

Discipline (Y+R*3)
4
7 played
7 starts
180 mins
~26 mins/game
T. Ivanov

T. Ivanov

Defender

CSKA Sofia

Discipline (Y+R*3)
3
8 played
8 starts
180 mins
~23 mins/game

The verdict

In summary, CSKA Sofia's combination of attacking synergy and defensive resilience should be enough to secure a slender victory over Derry City. The home side's defensive frailties and recent form suggest they will find it tough to keep the visitors at bay, making a 1-0 away win the most likely outcome.

Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 11:18 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163

Prediction Q&A

Who did Fipster predict to win Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Fipster's AI model predicted CSKA Sofia to win against Derry City.
What score did Fipster predict for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Fipster predicted a final score of Derry City 0–1 CSKA Sofia.
What were the win probabilities for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
Fipster's model gave Derry City a 32% chance of winning, CSKA Sofia a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.