Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
- First leg:
- CSKA Sofia 3 2 Derry City
- Aggregate:
- Derry City 3 5 CSKA Sofia
- Advances:
- CSKA Sofia
Match recap
CSKA Sofia beat Derry City 2–1 in their UEFA Europa League fixture.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
0-1 CSKA Sofia win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
The 1st Qualifying Round fixture between Derry City and CSKA Sofia promises a tight contest, with both sides eager to make their mark early in the competition. While Derry City have shown some scoring ability, their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by the visitors' well-coordinated attack.
Match factors
CSKA Sofia's attacking duo synergy
I. Pittas and S. Sensi form a strong scorer-assister partnership, boosting CSKA's goal threat
CSKA Sofia's better defensive form
CSKA concedes fewer goals on average and has a 50% clean sheet rate, aiding predicted away win
Derry City's recent scoring but defensive struggles
Derry City scores regularly but concedes heavily, indicating defensive vulnerability
No confirmed injuries for either side
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical and form factors dominate outcome
The context
Derry City have struggled in this competition so far, losing both of their two matches and conceding five goals while scoring three. In contrast, CSKA Sofia come into this tie with a more positive record, having played six matches with three wins, two draws, and just one loss, scoring nine and conceding six. Historically, CSKA Sofia have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, winning both encounters against Derry City.
Key insights
- I
I. Pittas
CSKA Sofia
Top scorer for CSKA Sofia with multiple goals, including 3 against Derry City in last two matches, making him a key attacking threat.
UEFA Europa League 26/273 goals in last two matches vs Derry City
- S
S. Sensi
CSKA Sofia
Creative midfielder with strong assist record, key provider for Pittas and linking midfield to attack effectively.
UEFA Europa League 26/27Above average passing and assist metrics in this competition
- D
D. Evtimov
CSKA Sofia
Goalkeeper with good clean sheet percentage, crucial in maintaining narrow leads against Derry City.
UEFA Europa League 26/2750% clean sheet rate in this competition
- B
B. Cotter
Derry City
Defensive midfielder involved in own goal recently, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
UEFA Europa League 26/27Involved in own goal conceded recently
Analysis
CSKA Sofia's attacking threat is spearheaded by I. Pittas, who has been the top scorer in recent fixtures and has netted three goals in the last two matches against Derry City. His partnership with midfielder S. Sensi, a creative force with a strong assist record, provides a tactical edge. Defensively, CSKA's goalkeeper D. Evtimov has maintained a solid record with a good clean sheet percentage, crucial for preserving narrow leads. Meanwhile, Derry City have shown offensive promise through E. Chapman but continue to struggle defensively, as evidenced by their recent results and conceding an own goal involving B. Cotter.
Key facts
- 1.Derry City have lost both matches played in this competition, conceding 5 goals and scoring 3.
- 2.CSKA Sofia have a stronger record with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in 6 matches in this competition.
- 3.CSKA Sofia have won both previous head-to-head matches against Derry City.
- 4.I. Pittas has scored 3 goals in the last two matches against Derry City, making him a key threat.
- 5.S. Sensi is a creative midfielder with a strong assist record, often linking play to Pittas.
- 6.CSKA Sofia goalkeeper D. Evtimov has a good clean sheet percentage, aiding defensive solidity.
- 7.Derry City midfielder B. Cotter was involved in an own goal recently, highlighting defensive issues.
- 8.No confirmed injuries for either side, so full squads are expected.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a narrow away win for CSKA Sofia, with a 1-0 scoreline reflecting their ability to edge out Derry City by exploiting defensive lapses while maintaining a tight defence themselves. Despite the low confidence in this call due to limited match history and missing standings data, the statistical probabilities favour the visitors to take the win.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Derry City
No standout risk players flagged for Derry City
Away — CSKA Sofia
The verdict
In summary, CSKA Sofia's combination of attacking synergy and defensive resilience should be enough to secure a slender victory over Derry City. The home side's defensive frailties and recent form suggest they will find it tough to keep the visitors at bay, making a 1-0 away win the most likely outcome.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 11:18 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Unknown
Yellow Card
Goal
Goal
Unknown
Unknown
Yellow Card
Unknown
Unknown
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Unknown
Unknown
Yellow Card
Unknown
Unknown (OG)
Match Statistics
Derry City
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1B. MaherG
- 2B. CotterM
- 3Patrick McCleanD
- 7M. DuffyM
- 8A. O'ReillyM
- 14E. ChapmanM
- 19B. FlemingM
- 21Kévin SantosM
- 22C. BarrD
- 25Christy GroganD
- 28J. OlayinkaM
Substitutes
- 4J. StottD
- 6R. SlevinD
- 13Tom NorcottG
- 15J. ClarkeM
- 16J. McCleanM
- 17N. TwiskM
- 23C. DummiganD
- 26S. CallisterG
- 32T. DohertyF
- 35L. KellyF
CSKA Sofia
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2PastorD
- 6Bruno JordãoM
- 8S. SensiM
- 9S. GodoyF
- 14T. IvanovD
- 17Á. MartinoD
- 25D. EvtimovG
- 28I. PittasF
- 30P. PanayotovM
- 32Facundo Santiago RodríguezD
- 94I. Solet BomawokoM
Substitutes
- 3Tamimou OuorouD
- 5J. GbaminD
- 10J. ZwartsF
- 11M. BrahimiM
- 19A. YordanovD
- 31D. NikolovG
- 34V. KaymakanovM
- 38Léo PereiraM
- 77A. PiedrahitaM
- 80G. ChorbadzhiyskiM
- 91A. TunchevD
- 99J. Eto'o
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted CSKA Sofia to win against Derry City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Derry City 0–1 CSKA Sofia.
- What were the win probabilities for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia?
- Fipster's model gave Derry City a 32% chance of winning, CSKA Sofia a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.





