Derby vs Wrexham
Wrexham snatches draw at Derby
O. Rathbone's late strike denies Derby a home win.
Derby took an early lead through S. Szmodics in the ninth minute, setting the tone for what looked like a home victory. However, Wrexham fought back and secured a valuable point with O. Rathbone's goal in the 88th minute. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a Derby win, turning what seemed a likely home success into a shared spoils affair.
Outcome probability
Derby and Wrexham face off in what promises to be a closely contested match in the regular season. Both teams have had mixed fortunes so far, making this encounter a fine balance of tactical discipline and attacking intent.
Match factors
Derby missing key attackers and midfielders
Derby has 7 confirmed outs including attackers Brewster and Agyemang, reducing scoring options
Derby midfield passing strength
A. Mowatt's passing accuracy (85%) and volume (52.7 per game) exceed league averages, aiding build-up
Wrexham's defensive solidity with Doyle and Ekomié
Doyle and Ekomié show strong duel win rates and tackling, likely to challenge Derby's attack
Wrexham's recent scoring consistency at home
Wrexham scored in 4 consecutive home games, showing attacking momentum at Derby's ground
Derby defensive experience with Taylor and Langås
Taylor and Langås provide stable defense with good duel success and passing accuracy
The context
Derby currently sit 22nd in the league with 4 points from 7 games, while Wrexham are slightly better placed at 20th with 7 points. Their head-to-head history is limited, with Wrexham holding a slight edge having won one of their two previous meetings, the other ending in a draw.
Key insights
- A
A. Mowatt
Derby
Mowatt's passing accuracy (85%) and high passing volume (52.7 per game) give Derby a midfield edge in controlling play.
Championship 26/27Passing accuracy 85%, 52.7 passes per game
- C
C. Doyle
Wrexham
Doyle's strong duel win rate and tackling make him a key figure in Wrexham's defensive resilience.
Championship 26/27Duel win rate 59%, 1.4 tackles per game
- J
J. Ekomié
Wrexham
Ekomié's high duel win rate and tackling, plus recent goal contribution, add both defensive solidity and attacking threat.
Championship 26/27Duel win rate 65%, 2.6 tackles per game
- C
C. Taylor
Derby
Taylor offers defensive stability with a high duel win rate and low disciplinary risk, crucial for Derby's backline.
Championship 26/27Duel win rate ~55%, only 1 yellow card in 7 games
- S
S. Langås
Derby
Langås combines excellent passing accuracy with consistent defensive performances, anchoring Derby's defence.
Championship 26/27Passing accuracy 87-88%, consistent starter
Analysis
The match is expected to be tight, with aggregated probabilities showing home and away wins equally likely at 32.5% each, and draws close behind at 30%. Derby's midfield strength, led by A. Mowatt with an impressive 85% passing accuracy and high passing volume, will be key in building attacks despite missing several key attackers. Defensively, Derby rely on the experience of Taylor and Langås to keep things tight. Wrexham, meanwhile, boast defensive solidity through Doyle and Ekomié, who have strong duel win rates and tackling stats. Wrexham's recent scoring consistency at home adds an attacking threat, making this a finely balanced encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Derby are 22nd in the league with 4 points from 7 games (W1 D1 L5).
- 2.Wrexham are 20th in the league with 7 points from 7 games (W1 D4 L2).
- 3.In 2 head-to-head meetings, Derby have won 0, Wrexham have won 1, with 1 draw.
- 4.A. Mowatt has a passing accuracy of 85% and averages 52.7 passes per game, well above league averages for midfielders.
- 5.Defenders C. Doyle and J. Ekomié have strong duel win rates and tackling stats, bolstering Wrexham's defence.
- 6.Derby defenders C. Taylor and S. Langås provide stability with good duel success and passing accuracy.
- 7.Wrexham have scored in 4 consecutive home games, showing attacking momentum at Derby's ground.
- 8.Total cards predicted to be around 4, indicating moderate discipline expected.
Prediction
Despite the balanced probabilities, the prediction leans towards a narrow 2-1 victory for Derby. The home side's midfield control and defensive experience may just tip the scales in their favour, although the margin is expected to be slim and the contest competitive.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Derby
Away — Wrexham
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with both teams pushing hard. Derby's slight edge in midfield and defence could secure them the win, but Wrexham's resilience and recent scoring form mean they won't go down without a fight.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 15:58 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Langås
Yellow Card
Szmodics
Assist: Fuseini
Windass
Hedges
Yellow Card
O'Brien
Kaboré
Rathbone
Yellow Card
Fuseini
Szmodics
Mowatt
Yellow Card
Clark
Morris
Ekomié
Vyner
Rathbone
Assist: Moore
Moore
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4D. OzohM
- 6S. LangåsD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 20A. MowattM
- 23J. WardD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 28D. SandersonD
- 31J. VickersG
Substitutes
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 19H. MeisterF
- 24R. NyambeD
- 27L. TravisM
- 29O. FrauloM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
Wrexham
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3J. EkomiéM
- 5D. HyamD
- 6J. WorrallD
- 8B. WhitemanM
- 10J. WindassM
- 12I. KaboréM
- 17C. O'HareM
- 19K. MooreF
- 22A. PattersonG
- 26Z. VynerD
- 27L. O'BrienM
Substitutes
- 11B. CadamarteriF
- 15G. DobsonM
- 20O. RathboneM
- 21D. WardG
- 28S. SmithF
- 30Daniel Edward Peter ImrayD
- 34A. JamesD
- 47R. LongmanM
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Szmodics | M | 72 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| M. Fuseini | M | 72 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/5 |
| D. Sanderson | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Langås | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Clark | M | 84 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1/4 |
| J. Ward | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| R. Brewster | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Meister | F | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ozoh | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Hedges | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| C. Morris | F | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Fraulo | M | 6 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mowatt | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | -1 | — |
| J. Vickers | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Salvesen | F | 6 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bilbija | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Travis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Nyambe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. O'Donnell | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Wrexham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Rathbone | M | 75 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| A. Patterson | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Moore | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| D. Hyam | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ekomié | M | 85 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Daniel Edward Peter Imray | D | 26 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Smith | F | 26 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. O'Hare | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| L. O'Brien | M | 64 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Worrall | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| I. Kaboré | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Z. Vyner | D | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Dobson | M | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Longman | M | 5 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Whiteman | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Windass | M | 15 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Cadamarteri | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ward | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. James | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Derby vs Wrexham?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Derby to win against Wrexham.
- What score did Fipster predict for Derby vs Wrexham?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Derby 2–1 Wrexham.
- What were the win probabilities for Derby vs Wrexham?
- Fipster's model gave Derby a 35% chance of winning, Wrexham a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.