Derby vs West Brom
West Brom nudge past Derby
A solitary strike from A. Heggebø secures a slender away victory.
West Brom edged Derby 1-0 thanks to an early goal from A. Heggebø in the 16th minute. The visitors held firm to maintain their lead throughout the match, claiming all three points in a tight contest. Fipster's prediction of an away win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
Derby and West Brom face off in what promises to be a closely fought encounter in the regular season. Both sides have had mixed starts, but West Brom's recent form and scoring consistency give them a slight edge.
Match factors
Derby missing key attackers
Carlton Morris and P. Agyemang are confirmed out, reducing Derby's attacking options
Szmodics leads Derby's scoring threat
Szmodics has 2 goals in 3 games with strong away form, above league average for midfielders
Clark's creativity key for Derby
Clark's 2 assists in 4 games and high involvement in attack give Derby a creative edge
West Brom's consistent scoring streak
West Brom have scored in all last 5 games, showing strong attacking momentum
Mowatt's defensive work to disrupt West Brom
Mowatt's high tackle rate and duel success can limit West Brom's midfield creativity
The context
West Brom currently sit 7th in the league with 7 points from 4 games, boasting a points-per-game rate of 1.75, while Derby are 19th with 4 points and a 1.00 points-per-game average. Historically, Derby have dominated their head-to-head meetings, but recent form suggests West Brom are the team on the up.
Key insights
S. Szmodics
Derby
Szmodics leads Derby's scoring threat with 2 goals in 3 games and strong away form, making him a key attacking threat.
Championship 26/272 goals in 3 games, 0.67 goals/90 away
B. Clark
Derby
Clark's creativity is vital for Derby, with 2 assists in 4 games providing a creative edge in midfield.
Championship 26/272 assists in 4 games, 0.5 assists/90
Analysis
West Brom have scored in all of their last five matches, showing a reliable attacking momentum. Derby, missing key attackers Carlton Morris and P. Agyemang, will rely heavily on Szmodics, who has netted twice in three games and boasts strong away form. Midfielder B. Clark's creativity with two assists in four games will be crucial for Derby's chances. Defensively, A. Mowatt's tackling prowess could disrupt West Brom's rhythm, but the visitors' overall consistency and points advantage make them favourites to claim the win.
Key facts
- 1.West Brom rank 7th with 7 points from 4 games (W2 D1 L1).
- 2.Derby rank 19th with 4 points from 4 games (W1 D1 L2).
- 3.West Brom have a points-per-game advantage of 1.75 over Derby's 1.00.
- 4.Derby have won 8 of 13 head-to-head matches; West Brom have won 1, with 4 draws.
- 5.West Brom have scored in all of their last 5 matches.
- 6.Derby's S. Szmodics has scored 2 goals in 3 games with strong away form.
- 7.B. Clark leads Derby with 2 assists in 4 games.
- 8.Predicted total cards count is 4.
Prediction
The prediction is a narrow 2-1 victory for West Brom. The most likely scoreline reflects West Brom's attacking edge and Derby's resilience, but the match is expected to be competitive with a moderate number of cards, around four, indicating a spirited contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Derby
Away — West Brom
No standout top scorers flagged for West Brom
The verdict
While Derby have the historical upper hand in this fixture, West Brom's current form and scoring consistency suggest they will take the spoils. Expect a tight game with moments of quality from key players on both sides, but ultimately West Brom should edge it 2-1.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Whitwell
Yellow Card
Heggebø
Assist: Morgan
Pereira
Yellow Card
Pereira
Red Card
Whitwell
Hedges
Heggebø
Sanderson
Galves
Ozoh
Morgan
Yellow Card
Cashin
Match Statistics
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 4D. OzohM
- 6S. LangåsD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 11S. SzmodicsF
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 18C. TaylorD
- 20A. MowattM
- 26R. HedgesM
- 28D. SandersonD
- 44E. CashinD
Substitutes
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 19H. MeisterF
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 23J. WardM
- 24R. NyambeD
- 29O. FrauloM
- 31J. VickersG
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 42Raymond OfforD
West Brom
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1M. O’LearyG
- 3N. PhillipsD
- 4C. StylesD
- 6G. CampbellD
- 8J. MolumbyM
- 11J. MorganF
- 17O. DiakitéM
- 18B. PereiraD
- 19A. HeggebøF
- 21I. PriceM
- 29Harry WhitwellM
Substitutes
- 2C. MephamD
- 7F. MyhreM
- 9B. StewartF
- 15Tobias Christopher CollyerM
- 20R. NzingoulaM
- 22C. TownsendD
- 25N. GalvesD
- 26K. TundeF
- 42B. CisseG
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ward | M | 45 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| E. Cashin | D | 84 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Mowatt | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| H. Meister | F | 27 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 6 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| S. Langås | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Taylor | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Fuseini | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/6 |
| D. Ozoh | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| J. Widell Zetterström | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 45 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| B. Clark | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/6 |
| S. Szmodics | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Salvesen | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| R. Hedges | M | 45 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| O. Fraulo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Johnston | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raymond Offor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Nyambe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Vickers | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
West Brom
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Heggebø | F | 45 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Phillips | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. O’Leary | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Morgan | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| C. Townsend | D | 38 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Molumby | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Campbell | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Diakité | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Galves | D | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Nzingoula | M | 45 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| I. Price | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Harry Whitwell | M | 37 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/5 |
| C. Styles | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| B. Pereira | D | 34 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Cisse | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Tunde | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Stewart | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tobias Christopher Collyer | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Myhre | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mepham | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Derby vs West Brom?
- Fipster's AI model predicted West Brom to win against Derby.
- What score did Fipster predict for Derby vs West Brom?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Derby 1–2 West Brom.
- What were the win probabilities for Derby vs West Brom?
- Fipster's model gave Derby a 32% chance of winning, West Brom a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.