Derby vs Stoke City
Stoke City nicks narrow win at Derby
L. Graham's early second-half strike secures all three points for the visitors.
Stoke City edged out Derby with a solitary goal from L. Graham just after the break, proving enough to claim a 1-0 victory in this Championship clash. The match was tightly contested, with the single strike making all the difference. Fipster's prediction of an away win was spot on, though the exact scoreline was slightly off.
Outcome probability
Derby and Stoke City face off in what promises to be a keenly contested fixture in the regular season. Both sides have a history of close encounters, but current form and league standings suggest Stoke City hold the upper hand.
Match factors
Stoke's midfield creativity vs Derby's defensive struggles
Stoke's Galbraith and McGlynn provide strong attacking midfield presence against Derby's leaky defense, likely to exploit gaps.
Galbraith leads Stoke in goals and assists
Ethan Galbraith tops Stoke's scoring and assisting charts, making him a focal point for goal threats.
Stoke's scoring streak and positive form
Stoke has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum heading into this fixture.
Derby missing key defenders and attacker
Derby is without several defenders and a key attacker, weakening their defensive solidity and attacking options.
The context
This match is part of the regular season's 11th round, with Derby sitting 23rd in the league with 6 points from 9 games, while Stoke City occupy 6th place with 16 points from 10 games. Their head-to-head record is evenly matched with 5 wins apiece and 4 draws from 14 meetings, setting the stage for a competitive clash.
Key insights
Ethan Galbraith
Stoke City
Leads Stoke in goals and assists, making him the key threat to Derby's defence.
Championship 26/273 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances
Jack McGlynn
Stoke City
In good recent form with 2 goals in last 5 games, adding to Stoke's attacking threat.
Championship 26/272 goals in 5 appearances
Eric-Junior Bocat
Stoke City
Provides offensive support from defence with 2 assists, contributing to Stoke's creativity.
Championship 26/272 assists in 9 appearances
Analysis
Stoke City's midfield dynamo Ethan Galbraith leads the charge with 3 goals and 2 assists this season, showcasing his importance in their attacking play. Alongside Jack McGlynn, who has netted 2 goals recently, Stoke's creative midfield is poised to exploit Derby's defensive vulnerabilities, especially given Derby's injury woes in defence and attack. Stoke's superior goal difference and league position reflect their stronger overall form, making them favourites to claim the win.
Key facts
- 1.Derby and Stoke City have an evenly matched head-to-head record: 5 wins each and 4 draws in 14 meetings.
- 2.Stoke City currently sit 6th in the league with 16 points from 10 games, while Derby are 23rd with 6 points from 9 games.
- 3.Stoke City have a significantly better goal difference (+8) compared to Derby (-7) this season.
- 4.Ethan Galbraith leads Stoke City with 3 goals and 2 assists in 9 appearances this season.
- 5.Derby are missing key defenders and an attacker, weakening their defensive and offensive capabilities.
- 6.Stoke City have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 0-2 in favour of Stoke City, consistent with the fulltime prediction of 1-2.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Stoke City with a 2-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 0-2, indicating Stoke's early dominance. The match is also anticipated to see around four cards, suggesting a competitive and possibly physical encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Derby
No standout top scorers flagged for Derby
Away — Stoke City
The verdict
In summary, Stoke City's blend of midfield creativity and current form should see them edge out Derby in this fixture. Derby will need to tighten up defensively and find attacking spark to challenge the visitors' superiority.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bocat
McGlynn
Graham
Assist: Galbraith
Travis
Lawal
Cissé
Fuseini
Ozoh
Yellow Card
Clark
Devenny
Szmodics
Hedges
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 2 |  Birmingham | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | +10 | 23 |
| 3 |  Stoke City | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | +4 | 23 |
| 4 |  Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +3 | 23 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 |  Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 13 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -17 | 5 |
Match Statistics
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4D. OzohM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 23J. WardD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 27L. TravisM
- 28D. SandersonD
- 31J. VickersG
Substitutes
- 10R. BrewsterF
- 12R. O'DonnellG
- 13F. BilbijaM
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 19H. MeisterF
- 29O. FrauloM
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
- 42Raymond OfforD
- 43I. GordonD
Stoke City
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1V. JohanssonG
- 2B. JohnsonM
- 5L. GrahamD
- 7J. McGlynnF
- 8E. GalbraithM
- 11L. CisséF
- 13J. DevennyF
- 16B. WilmotD
- 17E. BocatM
- 18B. LawalD
- 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
Substitutes
- 4B. PearsonM
- 9R. BoženíkF
- 10Bae Jun-HoM
- 15G. HirstF
- 21L. BombinoD
- 22J. TchamadeuD
- 24J. GriffithsG
- 40M. TalovierovD
- 42M. ManhoefF
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ward | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/4 |
| D. Sanderson | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Morris | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| D. Ozoh | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/6 |
| J. Vickers | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Travis | M | 52 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Nyambe | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Clark | M | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| R. Brewster | F | 38 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Hedges | D | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Fuseini | M | 73 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/4 |
| S. Szmodics | M | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Salvesen | F | 3 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Bilbija | M | 3 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Meister | F | 17 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. O'Donnell | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Gordon | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raymond Offor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Stoke City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Graham | D | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Bombino | D | 52 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Galbraith | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| B. Lawal | D | 68 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Johnson | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Talovierov | D | 22 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McGlynn | F | 46 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| B. Wilmot | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Tchamadeu | D | 3 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Bocat | M | 38 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| El Hadji Djibril Soumaré | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| V. Johansson | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Hirst | F | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| R. Boženík | F | 22 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Cissé | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| J. Devenny | F | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Bae Jun-Ho | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Pearson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Griffiths | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Manhoef | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Derby vs Stoke City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Stoke City to win against Derby.
- What score did Fipster predict for Derby vs Stoke City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Derby 1–2 Stoke City.
- What were the win probabilities for Derby vs Stoke City?
- Fipster's model gave Derby a 7% chance of winning, Stoke City a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.