Derby vs Bolton
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Challenge a friendDerby and Bolton face off in what promises to be a closely fought encounter in the regular season. Bolton's recent form and attacking prowess give them the edge, but Derby will be eager to challenge on home turf.
The context
Derby sit 23rd in the league with 7 points from 13 games, struggling to find consistency with just one win so far. Bolton, meanwhile, are 19th with 14 points, showing a better goal difference and points-per-game ratio. This sets the stage for a contest where Bolton's slightly stronger form could prove decisive.
Match factors
Bolton's attacking trio in form
Samuel Dalby leads Bolton's attack with strong recent scoring form, supported by Larrazabal's creativity and Gale's midfield presence, giving Bolton a clear offensive edge.
Derby's defensive injury crisis
Derby is missing multiple defenders confirmed out, weakening their defense and increasing Bolton's scoring chances.
Bolton's better recent scoring trend
Bolton has scored in 4 of last 5 matches and maintains a positive scoring streak away, contrasting Derby's poor defensive form.
Bolton missing key attackers
Bolton's John McAtee and others are confirmed out, reducing attacking depth but Dalby remains fit and key to scoring.
Derby relies on midfield creativity
Derby's Szmodics and Clark are main goal and assist threats, but limited support from forwards may hinder goal output.
Analysis
Bolton's attack, led by Samuel Dalby who has netted 5 goals this season including 3 in the last 5 matches, looks well placed to trouble Derby's defence, which is weakened by confirmed absences. Midfield creativity from Gaizka Larrazabal and Thierry Gale adds to Bolton's offensive threat. Derby rely heavily on midfielders Samuel Szmodics and Bobby Clark for goals and assists, but their forwards have struggled to make a significant impact. Bolton's ability to score in 4 of their last 5 matches contrasts with Derby's defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting Bolton will likely take an early lead and maintain it.
Key insights
Samuel Dalby
Bolton
Top scorer with 5 goals, including 3 in last 5 matches, making him Bolton's key attacking threat.
Championship 26/275 goals in 13 apps, 0.38 goals/game
Gaizka Larrazabal
Bolton
Leading assister with 3 assists, strong recent form with 2 in last 5 matches, crucial for Bolton's creativity.
Championship 26/273 assists in 12 apps, 0.25 assists/game
Bobby Clark
Derby
Contributes both goals and assists, integral to Derby's midfield despite team's struggles.
Championship 26/273 goals and 2 assists in 13 apps
Samuel Szmodics
Derby
Creative hub for Derby with 3 goals and 1 assist, key to their attacking hopes.
Championship 26/273 goals and 1 assist in 12 apps
Prediction
The prediction is for Bolton to win 2-1, taking a 1-0 lead into halftime and holding on despite Derby's efforts. The match is expected to feature three cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest. Bolton's superior goal difference and points-per-game advantage underpin this forecast.
Key facts
- 1.Derby are 23rd with 7 points from 13 games (W1 D4 L8).
- 2.Bolton are 19th with 14 points from 13 games (W4 D2 L7).
- 3.Bolton have a 6-goal better goal difference than Derby.
- 4.Bolton average 1.08 points per game, Derby 0.54.
- 5.Samuel Dalby is Bolton's top scorer with 5 goals this season.
- 6.Gaizka Larrazabal leads Bolton with 3 assists.
- 7.Derby rely on Samuel Szmodics and Bobby Clark for goals and creativity.
- 8.Derby have multiple defenders confirmed out, weakening their defence.
The verdict
In summary, Bolton's attacking form and Derby's defensive issues point towards an away win. While Derby will push for goals, Bolton's key players and recent momentum should see them through to a narrow victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Derby
Away — Bolton
Prediction generated 3 Nov 2026, 21:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +13 | 28 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 16 |  Bolton | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 17 |
| 17 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 15 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1 | 7 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -18 | 5 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who does Fipster predict will win Derby vs Bolton?
- Fipster's AI model predicts Bolton to win against Derby.
- What is the predicted score for Derby vs Bolton?
- Fipster predicts a final score of Derby 1–2 Bolton.
- What are the win probabilities for Derby vs Bolton?
- Fipster's model gives Derby a 10% chance of winning, Bolton a 79% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw.
- How confident is Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigns this prediction 79% confidence — a high-confidence call.