Derby vs Birmingham
Birmingham snatch narrow win at Derby
Paik Seung-Ho's second-half strike seals a 2-1 victory after a quickfire first-half exchange.
Derby took the lead through B. Clark just before the break, only for Carlos Vicente to level for Birmingham two minutes later. Paik Seung-Ho then secured the win with a second-half goal, completing a tight 2-1 victory on the road. Fipster's high-confidence prediction for an away win proved spot on.
Outcome probability
Derby and Birmingham face off in what promises to be a competitive fixture in the regular season. Both teams have shown moments of promise, but Birmingham's consistent scoring streak and defensive threats make them the favourites to take all three points.
Match factors
Derby missing key attacker Carlton Morris
Morris is out with a calf injury, removing a key goal threat and assist provider from Derby's attack
Bobby Clark doubtful for Derby's creative midfield
Clark leads Derby's assists but is doubtful, limiting Derby's chance creation if he misses
Phil Neumann's goal threat from defense for Birmingham
Neumann has scored 2 goals this season with strong away form, a rare scoring defender advantage
Birmingham's consistent scoring streak
Birmingham has scored in their last 5 matches, showing attacking consistency away from home
Derby's midfield creativity depends on doubtful Clark
If Clark is unavailable, Derby's midfield creativity and assist potential will be significantly reduced
The context
This match is part of the regular season's seventh round, where Birmingham currently boast a better goal difference and points per game than Derby. Historically, Derby have had the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, but recent form and player availability could tilt the balance.
Key insights
Phil Neumann
Birmingham
Neumann's goal threat from defence is a rare advantage, with 2 goals this season and strong away form.
Championship 26/272 goals in 5 apps, 0.4 avg goals/game
S. Szmodics
Derby
Szmodics is Derby's key attacking threat with an above-average scoring rate for a midfielder and strong away form.
Championship 26/272 goals in 4 apps, 0.5 avg goals/game
B. Clark
Derby
Clark leads Derby's assists but is doubtful, which could limit Derby's chance creation if he misses.
Championship 26/272 assists in 5 apps, 0.4 avg assists/game
Analysis
Birmingham's attacking consistency is notable, having scored in their last five matches. Defender Phil Neumann stands out with his goal-scoring prowess from the back, posing a significant threat on set pieces. Derby, meanwhile, will miss key attacker Carlton Morris due to a calf injury, which could hamper their offensive output. Additionally, Derby's creative midfielder Bobby Clark is doubtful, potentially limiting their chance creation. These factors, combined with Birmingham's better form, suggest an away win is the most probable outcome.
Key facts
- 1.Birmingham have a better goal difference and points per game than Derby this season.
- 2.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Derby have won 9, Birmingham 3, with 8 draws.
- 3.Birmingham have scored in their last 5 matches, showing attacking consistency.
- 4.Derby will miss key attacker Carlton Morris due to a calf injury.
- 5.Bobby Clark, Derby's top assister, is doubtful and may miss the match.
- 6.Phil Neumann, a defender for Birmingham, has scored 2 goals this season, showing strong set-piece threat.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 3.
Prediction
The prediction sees Birmingham taking a 1-0 lead into halftime and ultimately winning 2-1. The match is expected to feature around three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Derby's top scorer Szmodics and Birmingham's Neumann are likely to be influential, but the visitors' overall edge should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Derby
Away — Birmingham
The verdict
In summary, Birmingham's consistent scoring and defensive threats, coupled with Derby's injury concerns, point towards a narrow away victory. Fans can expect a closely fought match with moments of quality from key players on both sides.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fuseini
Yellow Card
Cochrane
Yellow Card
Clark
Assist: Szmodics
Vicente
Assist: Millar
Priske
Yellow Card
Meister
Solis
Paik Seung-Ho
Assist: Millar
Priske
Millar
Cashin
Ozoh
Taylor
Stansfield
Vicente
Match Statistics
Derby
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 4D. OzohM
- 6S. LangåsD
- 8B. ClarkM
- 9C. MorrisF
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 16M. FuseiniM
- 18C. TaylorD
- 19H. MeisterM
- 23J. WardD
- 44E. CashinD
Substitutes
- 15L. SalvesenF
- 20A. MowattM
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 26R. HedgesM
- 28D. SandersonD
- 29O. FrauloM
- 31J. VickersG
- 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
Birmingham
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. BeadleG
- 4C. KlarerD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 7Carlos VicenteM
- 9A. PriskeF
- 14J. SolisM
- 17L. MillarM
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
- 28J. StansfieldM
Substitutes
- 2E. LairdD
- 3L. BuchananD
- 8Paik Seung-HoM
- 21R. AllsopG
- 23D. FryD
- 25K. LundD
- 27K. FujimotoM
- 32L. VázquezF
- 33M. DuckschF
Derby
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Clark | M | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| J. Ward | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| E. Cashin | D | 85 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| J. Widell Zetterström | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| S. Langås | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | F | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| D. Ozoh | M | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Morris | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| C. Taylor | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 36 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| M. Fuseini | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/5 |
| R. Hedges | M | 5 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Meister | M | 54 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| J. Vickers | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Salvesen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Johnston | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mowatt | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Nyambe | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Birmingham
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Millar | M | 73 | 8.3 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| Paik Seung-Ho | M | 30 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Carlos Vicente | M | 96 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| E. Laird | D | 17 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| L. Vázquez | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| B. Osayi-Samuel | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Klarer | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Beadle | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Iwata | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Stansfield | M | 96 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| J. Solis | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Neumann | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Cochrane | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| A. Priske | F | 73 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Lund | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Fujimoto | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ducksch | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Allsop | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Fry | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Buchanan | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Derby vs Birmingham?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Birmingham to win against Derby.
- What score did Fipster predict for Derby vs Birmingham?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Derby 1–2 Birmingham.
- What were the win probabilities for Derby vs Birmingham?
- Fipster's model gave Derby a 12% chance of winning, Birmingham a 75% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 75% confidence — a high-confidence call.