DC United vs Philadelphia Union
Match recap
DC United beat Philadelphia Union 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Baribo scored for DC United. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.12 for DC United versus 0.54 for Philadelphia Union.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-3 Philadelphia Union win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
The new MLS season kicks off with a clash between DC United and Philadelphia Union. Both teams are eager to make a strong start, but the Union's recent scoring form suggests they might have the upper hand.
Match factors
Philadelphia's potent attack led by Iloski
Milan Iloski's prolific scoring form and high minutes give Philadelphia a strong attacking edge
DC United's Bartlett contributes offensively from defense
Lucas Bartlett's 4 goals and 6 assists from defense exceed league averages, adding attacking threat
Philadelphia's winning streak and scoring consistency
Philadelphia has scored in last 5 matches and won all, showing strong form momentum
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing players expected
The context
This fixture marks the opening round of the regular season. Philadelphia Union have demonstrated strong momentum in recent matches, consistently finding the net and maintaining a winning streak. DC United, meanwhile, will rely on key players like Tai Baribo to spark their attack.
Key insights
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
Iloski’s prolific scoring and high minutes make him the spearhead of Philadelphia’s attack, crucial for their expected dominance.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals in 27 appearances, 0.59 goals/game
- L
Lucas Bartlett
DC United
Bartlett’s offensive contributions from defence add an extra dimension to DC United’s attack, though it might not be enough to stem the tide.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals and 6 assists this season
Francis Westfield
Philadelphia Union
Westfield’s 7 assists highlight his key role in creating chances from defence, underpinning Philadelphia’s attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 22 appearances, 0.32 assists/game
Tai Baribo
DC United
Baribo remains DC United’s main goal threat, with 14 goals this season and a knack for scoring in crucial moments.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 21 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
Analysis
Philadelphia Union's attack, spearheaded by Milan Iloski who has netted 16 goals this season, looks particularly potent. Their ability to score consistently and create chances is complemented by Francis Westfield's impressive assist tally from defence. DC United's Lucas Bartlett also contributes offensively, but the Union's overall form and attacking depth give them a clear edge. The predicted halftime score of 0-3 aligns with the expectation that Philadelphia will dominate early, with DC United managing a consolation goal later on.
Key facts
- 1.Philadelphia Union have won 11 of 20 head-to-head meetings against DC United.
- 2.The average goals per head-to-head match is 3.3, indicating open play.
- 3.Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia with 16 goals this season.
- 4.Tai Baribo is DC United's top scorer with 14 goals.
- 5.Francis Westfield tops assists for Philadelphia with 7 this season.
- 6.Lucas Bartlett contributes 4 goals and 6 assists from defence for DC United.
- 7.Philadelphia Union have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong form.
Prediction
We anticipate Philadelphia Union to secure a 3-1 victory. The away side's attacking strength and recent form should see them comfortably outscore DC United, despite the home team's efforts and Tai Baribo's goal threat.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — DC United
Away — Philadelphia Union
The verdict
In summary, Philadelphia Union's consistent scoring and tactical superiority should see them start the season with a convincing win. DC United will find it tough to contain the Union's forwards, but a late goal might offer some consolation.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Baribo
Assist: Peglow
Makhanya
Yellow Card
Bueno
Yellow Card
Sundstrom
Bueno
Alladoh
Red Card
Iloski
Pirani
Vassilev
Damiani
Sery Larsen
Yellow Card
Jean-Jacques
Yellow Card
Hopkins
Yellow Card
Hopkins
Baribo
Peglow
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
DC United
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 3L. BartlettD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 10Gabriel PiraniF
- 15K. RowlesD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 25J. HopkinsM
Substitutes
- 8J. StroudM
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 12C. AntleyD
- 13S. NealisD
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 30C. ClarkM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
- 77Hosei KijimaM
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Starting XI
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 8J. BuenoM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 19I. VassilevM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 26N. HarrielD
- 29O. MakhanyaD
- 66F. SundstromD
Substitutes
- 2G. MartínezD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 28A. AnelloF
- 37Stas KornzeniowskiF
- 55Sal OlivasF
- 76A. RickG
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Hopkins | M | 89 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/6 |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| João Peglow | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| Matti Peltola | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/6 |
| Tai Baribo | F | 89 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Lucas Bartlett(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kye Rowles | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Johnson | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Servania | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Pirani | F | 70 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nikola Markovic | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caden Clark | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jared Stroud | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conner Antley | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Nealis | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hosei Kijima | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bono | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Louis Munteanu | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
Philadelphia Union
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japhet Sery Larsen | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jesus Bueno | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nathan Harriel | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Olwethu Makhanya | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Finn Sundstrom | D | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andre Blake(C) | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Damiani | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Milan Iloski | M | 70 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 2/4 |
| Ezekiel Alladoh | F | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Indiana Vassilev | M | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sal Olivas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Rick | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Rafanello | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cavan Sullivan | M | 20 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Geiner Martínez | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stas Kornzeniowski | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Agustin Anello | F | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Alejandro Bedoya | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win DC United vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Philadelphia Union to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for DC United vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster predicted a final score of DC United 1–3 Philadelphia Union.
- What were the win probabilities for DC United vs Philadelphia Union?
- Fipster's model gave DC United a 9% chance of winning, Philadelphia Union a 82% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 82% confidence — a high-confidence call.