DC United vs Orlando City SC
Match recap
DC United beat Orlando City SC 3–2 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Hopkins, Munteanu, and Rowles scored for DC United; Ellis and Spicer replied for Orlando City SC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.07 for DC United versus 0.83 for Orlando City SC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Orlando City SC win
Actual
3–2
Outcome probability
This MLS regular season fixture promises an exciting battle between DC United and Orlando City SC. Both teams have shown attacking prowess, but Orlando City's recent away performances give them a slight edge.
Match factors
DC United's attacking threat in Tai Baribo
Baribo's 14 goals this season and strong recent form make him a key scoring threat for DC United.
Orlando City's offensive edge with Martín Ojeda
Ojeda's 13 goals and strong away scoring form position him as Orlando's main goal threat.
Keisuke Kurokawa's assist contribution from defense
Kurokawa leads DC United with 6 assists, providing offensive support from the backline.
Absence of Louis Munteanu weakens DC United attack
Munteanu is confirmed out with a leg injury, removing a secondary scoring and assist option for DC United.
Orlando City on a scoring streak
Orlando City has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong attacking momentum.
The context
The two sides have a balanced head-to-head record, each winning 8 of their 20 meetings with 4 draws. Their encounters tend to be high-scoring affairs, averaging 3.6 goals per match, indicating an open and entertaining game.
Key insights
Tai Baribo
DC United
Baribo's 14 goals this season and recent multi-goal games make him DC United's key scoring threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 21 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Ojeda's 13 goals and excellent away scoring form position him as Orlando City's main offensive weapon.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 22 appearances, 0.59 goals/game
Keisuke Kurokawa
DC United
Kurokawa leads DC United with 6 assists, providing valuable offensive support from defence.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 28 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Analysis
DC United rely heavily on Tai Baribo, their top scorer with 14 goals this season, while Orlando City counter with Martín Ojeda, who boasts 13 goals and excellent away form. DC United's Keisuke Kurokawa also provides creative spark from defence with 6 assists. However, the absence of Louis Munteanu due to injury weakens DC United's attacking options. Orlando City's consistent scoring streak in recent matches suggests they have the momentum to edge this contest.
Key facts
- 1.DC United and Orlando City SC have each won 8 of their 20 head-to-head matches, with 4 draws.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals per game, indicating open play.
- 3.Tai Baribo is DC United's top scorer with 14 goals this season.
- 4.Martín Ojeda leads Orlando City with 13 goals and strong away form.
- 5.Keisuke Kurokawa leads DC United with 6 assists from defence.
- 6.Louis Munteanu is out injured, weakening DC United's attack.
- 7.Orlando City has scored in their last 5 matches, showing good momentum.
Prediction
Given Orlando City's strong away form and attacking threats, they are predicted to secure a 2-1 win over DC United. The match is expected to be competitive, but Orlando's offensive edge should prove decisive.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — DC United
Away — Orlando City SC
The verdict
Expect a lively encounter with goals at both ends. Orlando City SC's ability to perform on the road and capitalize on key chances should see them narrowly overcome DC United in this MLS regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 01:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Iago
Yellow Card
Hopkins
Assist: Kurokawa
Bartlett
Yellow Card
Herrera
Taifi
Ellis
Tiago
Spicer
Luis Otávio
Yellow Card
Munteanu
Yellow Card
Hopkins
Hefti
Ellis
Munteanu
Assist: Markovic
Servania
Yellow Card
Luis Otávio
Stroud
Yellow Card
Kurokawa
Yellow Card
Peglow
Cartagena
Yellow Card
Rowles
Assist: Murrell
Match Statistics
DC United
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 3L. BartlettD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowM
- 11L. MunteanuF
- 15K. RowlesD
- 22A. HerreraM
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 25J. HopkinsF
Substitutes
- 8J. StroudM
- 12C. AntleyD
- 17J. MurrellF
- 24J. FarrG
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 30C. ClarkM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
- 77Hosei KijimaM
Orlando City SC
5-3-2Starting XI
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 6R. JanssonD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaF
- 11TiagoM
- 19Z. TaifiD
- 22Justin EllisF
- 57IagoD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloD
Substitutes
- 12Javier OteroG
- 14T. SpicerF
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 21N. MillerD
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 24G. DorseyD
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 29T. Reid-BrownD
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Munteanu | F | 100 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 3 | — |
| Jackson Hopkins | F | 77 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Kye Rowles | D | 100 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Aaron Herrera | M | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matti Peltola | M | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Brandon Servania | M | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Sean Johnson | G | 100 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Peglow | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/5 |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 100 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Bartlett(C) | D | 100 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Hosei Kijima | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caden Clark | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Conner Antley | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Farr | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bono | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 23 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jared Stroud | M | 55 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jacob Murrell | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Ellis | F | 83 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 0/2 |
| Martín Ojeda | F | 100 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Luis Otávio | M | 88 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Zakaria Taifi | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maxime Crepeau | G | 100 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrian Marin | D | 100 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Robin Jansson(C) | D | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Silva | D | 100 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Tiago Souza | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 100 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Iván Angulo | D | 100 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Bernardo Rhein | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harvey Sarajian | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nolan Miller | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrese Spicer | F | 39 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Wilder Cartagena | M | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tahir Reid-Brown | D | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Griffin Dorsey | D | 55 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win DC United vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Orlando City SC to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for DC United vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of DC United 1–2 Orlando City SC.
- What were the win probabilities for DC United vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's model gave DC United a 23% chance of winning, Orlando City SC a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 53% confidence — a medium-confidence call.