DC United vs New York Red Bulls
DC United stuns Red Bulls with early strike
A penalty and a stoppage-time goal secure a narrow win for DC United.
DC United took an early lead through T. Baribo's penalty and doubled their advantage just before the break with S. Hefti's goal in stoppage time. Although E. Choupo-Moting pulled one back for New York Red Bulls after the break, it wasn't enough to prevent a 2-1 defeat. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of an away win for the Red Bulls.
Outcome probability
DC United and New York Red Bulls face off in a regular season MLS fixture where both sides will be eager to claim vital points. The match promises a tactical battle with key attacking threats on both sides.
Match factors
Tai Baribo's scoring threat vs New York defense
Baribo leads DC United with 13 goals and strong recent form, posing a key threat to Red Bulls' defense
Keisuke Kurokawa's assist contribution
Kurokawa's 6 assists and offensive support from defense give DC United an edge in creating chances
Julian Hall's consistent scoring for Red Bulls
Hall has 10 goals this season with recent goals in last 5 matches, boosting Red Bulls' attack
Ronald Donkor's creative midfield role
Donkor's 4 assists and high passing involvement make him a key playmaker for Red Bulls
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing key players
The context
This is a regular season match in the MLS, round 29 of the 2026 campaign. Historically, New York Red Bulls have had the upper hand in this fixture, leading the head-to-head record with 9 wins to DC United's 4, alongside 7 draws. Matches between these two sides tend to be moderately high scoring, averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Key insights
Tai Baribo
DC United
Baribo leads DC United with 13 goals and has been in strong recent scoring form, making him a key attacking threat against New York Red Bulls.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 19 appearances, 0.68 goals/game
Keisuke Kurokawa
DC United
Kurokawa’s 6 assists and offensive contributions from defence provide DC United with valuable chance creation.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 24 appearances, 0.25 assists/game
Julian Hall
New York Red Bulls
Hall is New York Red Bulls’ top scorer with 10 goals and has scored recently, boosting their attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 26 appearances, 0.38 goals/game
Ronald Donkor
New York Red Bulls
Donkor’s 4 assists and high involvement in passing make him a key creative force in midfield for New York Red Bulls.
Major League Soccer 26/274 assists in 24 appearances, 0.17 assists/game
Analysis
New York Red Bulls hold a statistical edge in this fixture, with their top scorer Julian Hall netting 10 goals this season and showing good recent form. Their creative midfield presence, Ronald Donkor, has contributed 4 assists and plays a key role in chance creation. DC United's main threat comes from Tai Baribo, who leads his team with 13 goals and has been in strong scoring form recently. Keisuke Kurokawa's 6 assists provide DC United with offensive support from defence. Despite these attacking talents, the prediction leans towards a narrow away win, reflecting a tight contest where defensive discipline will be crucial.
Key facts
- 1.New York Red Bulls lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to DC United's 4 in 20 meetings.
- 2.Matches between these teams average 2.7 goals, with Red Bulls scoring more overall.
- 3.Julian Hall is New York Red Bulls' top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 4.Tai Baribo leads DC United with 13 goals and strong recent form.
- 5.Keisuke Kurokawa has provided 6 assists for DC United, the highest in his team.
- 6.Ronald Donkor has contributed 4 assists and is a key playmaker for New York Red Bulls.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads are expected.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-0 victory for New York Red Bulls, with the decisive goal likely coming in the first half and the scoreline remaining unchanged through to fulltime. The match is expected to be competitive, with a moderate number of cards anticipated, reflecting the intensity of the encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — DC United
Away — New York Red Bulls
The verdict
In summary, expect a closely fought match with New York Red Bulls just edging out DC United by a single goal. Both teams have key players capable of influencing the outcome, but the visitors' recent form and historical edge suggest they will take the points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 01:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Baribo
Penalty
Padelford
Yellow Card
Bartlett
Yellow Card
Hopkins
Yellow Card
Hefti
Assist: Baribo
Hopkins
Avilez
Mehmeti
Cowell
Che
Ruvalcaba
Nealis
Yellow Card
Bartlett
Red Card
Servania
Choupo-Moting
Assist: Forsberg
Donkor
Yellow Card
Donkor
Match Statistics
DC United
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 2K. NonoM
- 3L. BartlettD
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 9T. BariboF
- 15K. RowlesD
- 21A. DozzellM
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 25J. HopkinsF
- 32O. AvilezF
Substitutes
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 7PeglowF
- 8J. StroudM
- 13S. NealisD
- 22N. OrdazF
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 40K. CastilloM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
New York Red Bulls
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2J. CheD
- 7C. CowellF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 12D. NealisD
- 14J. BazánD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 37M. SofoM
- 48R. DonkorM
- 59D. PadelfordD
Substitutes
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 17C. HarperF
- 45C. FaelloD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 60S. KoneM
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Baribo | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Hefti | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Johnson | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peglow | F | 34 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Nealis | D | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Stroud | M | 34 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| B. Servania | M | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Hopkins | F | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/7 |
| K. Nono | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| O. Avilez | F | 56 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| K. Rowles | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dozzell | M | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bartlett | D | 68 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Ordaz | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bono | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Castillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Peltola | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Forsberg | M | 33 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0/1 |
| E. Choupo-Moting | F | 33 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| C. Cowell | F | 57 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/2 |
| J. Bazán | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Hall | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/9 |
| J. Che | D | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| J. Marshall-Rutty | D | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Sofo | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Ruvalcaba | F | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Donkor | M | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| D. Padelford | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. Nealis | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Horvath | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Harper | F | 33 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| S. Kone | M | 12 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mehmeti | M | 57 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Mosquera | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McCarthy | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Faello | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Dos Santos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win DC United vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York Red Bulls to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for DC United vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of DC United 0–1 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for DC United vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave DC United a 24% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 52% confidence — a medium-confidence call.