DC United vs New York City FC
Talles Magno seals narrow NYCFC win
A late strike from Talles Magno handed New York City FC a slender victory at DC United.
New York City FC edged out DC United 1-0 thanks to Talles Magno's decisive goal in the 87th minute. The match was a tight affair with the breakthrough coming late, denying DC United any chance to respond. Fipster's prediction of an away win was on the money, albeit with low confidence and a slightly off scoreline.
Outcome probability
DC United and New York City FC face off in what promises to be a closely contested MLS regular season match. Both teams have shown competitive form, making this a fixture to watch for fans of tight, tactical football.
Match factors
Tai Baribo's scoring prowess vs New York City FC defense
Baribo leads DC United with 16 goals and strong recent form, posing a key threat to NYCFC's defense.
Nicolás Fernández Mercau's dual threat
NYCFC's Fernández Mercau has 16 goals and 6 assists, showing strong offensive contribution and creativity.
Kimito Nono's recent scoring uptick
Nono has scored 2 goals in last 5 games, above his season average, indicating rising form.
Keisuke Kurokawa's assist potential
Kurokawa leads home team assists with 6, key in creating chances from defense.
Agustin Ojeda's assist creativity for NYCFC
Ojeda tops NYCFC with 10 assists, including 4 in last 10 games, crucial for playmaking.
The context
Historically, these two sides have met 20 times, with New York City FC holding a slight edge with 8 wins to DC United's 7, and 5 matches ending in draws. Their encounters typically produce a moderate number of goals, averaging 2.6 per game, suggesting a balanced contest with chances at both ends.
Key insights
Tai Baribo
DC United
Baribo leads DC United with 16 goals and has scored in his last 10 games, making him a key attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals in 25 appearances, 0.64 avg per game
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Fernández Mercau is a dual threat with 16 goals and 6 assists, showing consistent offensive contribution.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals and 6 assists in 32 appearances
Kimito Nono
DC United
Nono has scored 2 goals in his last 5 games, indicating an uptick in form for the midfielder.
Major League Soccer 26/273 goals in 15 appearances, 0.2 avg per game
Keisuke Kurokawa
DC United
Kurokawa leads the home side with 6 assists and is key in build-up play from defence.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 33 appearances, 0.18 avg per game
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Ojeda tops NYCFC with 10 assists, including 4 in the last 10 games, crucial for creating chances.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 33 appearances, 0.30 avg per game
Analysis
The match is expected to be cagey in the first half, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline the most probable outcome. DC United's Tai Baribo, the league's top scorer with 16 goals this season, will be a key threat, especially given his strong recent form. However, New York City FC's Nicolás Fernández Mercau, also with 16 goals and 6 assists, offers a potent attacking threat and creative spark. Midfielders like Kimito Nono for DC United and Agustin Ojeda for NYCFC add further attacking options, with Ojeda leading his team with 10 assists. The balance of probabilities leans towards a narrow away win, with New York City FC likely to find the decisive goals in the second half.
Key facts
- 1.In 20 meetings, DC United have won 7, New York City FC 8, with 5 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals per game.
- 3.Tai Baribo leads DC United with 16 goals this season.
- 4.Nicolás Fernández Mercau tops New York City FC with 16 goals and 6 assists.
- 5.Agustin Ojeda has provided 10 assists for New York City FC this season.
- 6.Keisuke Kurokawa leads DC United with 6 assists.
- 7.Most probable halftime score is 0-0, indicating a tight first half.
- 8.Predicted total cards in the match is 3.
Prediction
We predict a 1-2 victory for New York City FC, with the first half ending goalless before the away side breaks through in the second half. Expect a competitive match with a total of around three cards, reflecting the intensity of this regular season clash.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — DC United
Away — New York City FC
The verdict
While the prediction favours New York City FC, the low confidence rating suggests this could be a finely balanced encounter. Fans should anticipate a tight game with moments of quality from key players on both sides, making for an entertaining finish.
Prediction generated 2 Nov 2026, 06:15 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Servania
Yellow Card
Talles Magno
Yellow Card
Raul Gustavo
Yellow Card
Parks
Wolf
Martins
Ordaz
Luighi Hanri
Avilez
Talles Magno
Assist: Traoré
Servania
Match Statistics
DC United
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2K. NonoD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowF
- 13S. NealisD
- 21A. DozzellM
- 22N. OrdazM
- 23B. ServaniaF
- 24J. FarrG
- 32O. AvilezM
Substitutes
- 8J. StroudM
- 12C. AntleyD
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 40K. CastilloM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6J. SandsM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 11Talles MagnoM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 49M. FreeseG
- 55K. ParksM
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 9B. TraoréF
- 23Maxwell MurrayD
- 26A. OjedaF
- 27C. FlaxM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 35M. IleničD
- 88M. JonesF
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Nono | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Hefti | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Farr | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Stroud | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Peltola | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| K. Kurokawa | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Dozzell | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Ordaz | M | 68 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| O. Avilez | M | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Peglow | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | — |
| S. Nealis | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Servania | F | 91 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| K. Castillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bono | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Antley | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talles Magno | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2/4 |
| M. Freese | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Gray | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. O'Toole | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| K. Parks | M | 46 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Thiago Martins | D | 68 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Sands | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fernández Mercau | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 5 | 0/1 |
| Maxwell Murray | D | 22 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Shore | M | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 69 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| H. Wolf | M | 59 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ojeda | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| B. Traoré | F | 21 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Jones | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Flax | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ilenič | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Romero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win DC United vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York City FC to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for DC United vs New York City FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of DC United 1–2 New York City FC.
- What were the win probabilities for DC United vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's model gave DC United a 31% chance of winning, New York City FC a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 38% confidence — a low-confidence call.